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Elon: "Feature complete for full self driving this year"

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Why do you continue to use predictions from before the MobilEye split???
Post July 2016, your data shows:
March 2017: about 2019
November 2018: about 2019
Jan 2019: about the end of 2019
Feb 2019: probably 2019, sleep in it around 2020
April 2019: likely better than human this year, deffinatly next year.

What does mobileye has to do with this? Tesla started development on their "Tesla Vision" late 2015 and hired Jim Keller Jan 2016. The chip guru who built Apple’s Ax microprocessors joins Tesla to lead the Autopilot Hardware Engineering team

None of Elon's prediction have anything to do with mobileye. Elon said he will have Level 5 autonomous cars in Q4 2017, mobileye's EyeQ4 (which doesn't support level 5 perception) wouldn't be ready until Q4 2017. Their perception system for Level 5 EyeQ5 wouldn't be ready till Q1 2020.

Yet mobileye is supposed to be responsible for elon not being able to deliver a Level 5 system in Q4 2017?

Did mobileye also stop Elon from demoing cross country by end of 2017? what about reaching AP1 parity by before Dec 2016? or EAP being ready Dec 2016? Or FSD 3 months maybe or 6 months definitely?

October 19th 2016 said:
Tesla hopes its ghost in the machine will be fully ready by the end of next year, and the proof will be a cross country road trip. Musk said he could have a Tesla pick someone up from their home in LA and drop them off in the bright lights of Times Square, New York—then park itself. “It will do this without the need for a single touch, including the charger,” says Musk.

You Tesla fans have completely lost all credibility.

Um, yes it does (L3). And your own post (quoted above) states that he said maybe for this year and he'd be shocked if not next year regarding drivers making things less safe. So who is twisting things?

Yes he said maybe this year Tesla will be Level 5. which i have stated.

L2 requires driver attention and continuous monitoring, so wheel torque is a valid check. L3 requires driver attention, but hands off, so alertness system (such as camera) is needed. L4 does not need driver attention, so no monitoring system needed.
If Tesla's FSD software is validated as L2, it can jump to L4 and skip the monitoring needed in an L3 system.

No L3 doesn't require driver attention. Secondly hands on wheel detection IS a driver monitoring system.

Elon rejected camera based driver monitoring because he said the system is getting so good so fast that it would be pointless that by the time they implement it, the system would have already been better than a human. Then he gives timeline when human intervention would decrease safety. when the system would be better than a human. He said "maybe towards the end of the year".

You're clearly out of your element.
 
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By the way, Tesla is increasing the price of FSD to a whopping $8000 after May 1. So either Tesla is totally price gouging future customers or FSD on AP3 is actually really good.Price gouging would be super dumb IMO because once FSD on AP3 comes out, if it was bad, the word would get out and nobody would pay $8000 for it. Plus, it would really turn off future customers. So I am thinking FSD on AP3 is going to be really good.
 
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By the way, Tesla is increasing the price of FSD to a whopping $8000 after May 1. So either Tesla is totally price gouging future customers or FSD on AP3 is actually really good.Price gouging would be super dumb IMO because once FSD on AP3 comes out, if it was bad, the word would get out and nobody would pay $8000 for it. Plus, it would really turn off future customers. So I am thinking FSD on AP3 is going to be really good.
It better be, fairly quickly. Elon's statements during the recent interview and on Twitter the last few days are so far off the chain, there is no walking back this time. IMO, April 22nd is more important to the future of Tesla than April 24th.

I've been able to tolerate his exaggerations over the years, but this is the end of the rope for me. The demo must be amazing and the roadmap must be clear (though I'll cut him a little slack on "feature complete...this year").
 
Those who drivel on missed timelines forget Elon always give the most aggressive schedule in order to push his team and himself to go as fast as they could. The fact is he still delivers and is ahead of everyone else. That's the only thing that counts.

When you predict things could not be done you will always be 100% correct -- that is until when the moment of truth comes. Looks the moment of truth will happen sooner than we thought. That will make those few very vocal critics look very stupid. You are free to continue strengthen your case either way of course.
 
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By the way, Tesla is increasing the price of FSD to a whopping $8000 after May 1. So either Tesla is totally price gouging future customers or FSD on AP3 is actually really good.Price gouging would be super dumb IMO because once FSD on AP3 comes out, if it was bad, the word would get out and nobody would pay $8000 for it. Plus, it would really turn off future customers. So I am thinking FSD on AP3 is going to be really good.

Not really a “fair” statement considering I paid $8,000 well over 2 years ago for the same feature set so....I call foul on this one!!!


295CF594-7D17-4DF9-986F-FF9644742D45.jpeg
 
You're clearly out of your element.

I'm not the one with the reading comprehension problem...

Secondly hands on wheel detection IS a driver monitoring system.
(Yeah, what I said, and you quoted)

L2 requires driver attention and continuous monitoring, so wheel torque is a valid check. L3 requires driver attention, but hands off, so alertness system (such as camera) is needed.

No L3 doesn't require driver attention.
I said alertness/attention. It requires ability of driver to intervene, thus needing monitoring (driver can't take over if they are asleep).
Level 3 – Conditional Driving Automation

The sustained and ODD-specific performance by an ADS of the entire DDT, with the expectation that the human driver will be ready to respond to a request to intervene when issued by the ADS.
Depending if one believes Supercruse to be 3 vs 2, it provides an example of such a system...

As to ME, yes, it does have an impact on their timing since Tesla was planning to run in parallel with ME and leverage its ability in developing their custom system. They would have started off not needed to recreate all ME functionality (potentially also integrating newer chips as they became available, along with accelerating their development)
 
Pretty clear what is going on... AP is now being given away free. So, the FSD price is going up to make up for the loss of revenue.

By the way, Tesla is increasing the price of FSD to a whopping $8000 after May 1. So either Tesla is totally price gouging future customers or FSD on AP3 is actually really good.Price gouging would be super dumb IMO because once FSD on AP3 comes out, if it was bad, the word would get out and nobody would pay $8000 for it. Plus, it would really turn off future customers. So I am thinking FSD on AP3 is going to be really good.

Not really a “fair” statement considering I paid $8,000 well over 2 years ago for the same feature set so....I call foul on this one!!!

Exactly my point! :)

Anyone else expecting to see Enhanced Auto Parking on 22nd? ... where you get out of the car and it goes park itself (private land only / got to hold a button down on the app / etc.)
 
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Pretty clear what is going on... AP is now being given away free. So, the FSD price is going up to make up for the loss of revenue.

The hype at the moment is a cash raise (IMO). Leased M3's going into the Tesla Network starting 2022 / human intervention being less safe than FSD from Oct 2019 / FSD price increase on 1st May ... are you feeling like pulling the trigger yet? If not, we got a show for you on the 22nd...

Not quite on the first point. They raised base prices when AP became standard so AP is not given away for free, that income probably equals or exceeds the old AP/no-AP take-rate. (Assuming the price change did not affect demand which it of course may have.)

But yes, I agree this seems another cash-drive/demand-lever prior to May 1st.

What all these shenanigans do to reputation and demand through that is another question. This does not exactly instill confidence in the company.
 
Here's this new interview of Elon.

Again complete fluff answer and flowery statements to anything Lex asked that could actually birth real responses and details. Even lex who is one of the biggest fan out there was taken back by it.

Lex: when asked "how hard is the remaining steps in software"

Elon Musk: fluff non answers

One man's fluff is another man's stuff you step on in the cow pasture. Wouldn't count on either of them to move a vehicle safely down the road.
 
I think it is inevitable that *eventually* we'll see full self-driving on these vehicles. The only real questions are whether we're talking about one year or 30 and whether Tesla will deliver it before a third party like Waymo sells a retrofit kit. After all, the non-computing parts (fly-by-wire steering, brakes, cameras, RADAR, etc.) are in place, so all that's left is software. (Not that this isn't the hard part, of course, but it is also the part that doesn't require replacing the car.)

I don't think it's inevitable that we'll see L4/L5 on these vehicles. It's possible but calling it inevitable presumes that you know something about what the economics will look like. An alternative future (highly likely IMO) is that by the time it becomes possible to retrofit these cars with L4/L5-capable hardware there will not be enough people who want to do it for it to make any sense for any company (Tesla or Waymo) to get into that business. Sure, a determined individual may eventually be able to do it, at great expense and personal liability risk. But for most people that car isn't going to be worth it. They will either buy a new one, or (more likely for most people IMO) give up on personal car ownership and sell their Tesla for whatever it's worth -- the metal and batteries will be worth something for sure, plus there may be collectors.
 
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By the way, Tesla is increasing the price of FSD to a whopping $8000 after May 1. So either Tesla is totally price gouging future customers or FSD on AP3 is actually really good.Price gouging would be super dumb IMO because once FSD on AP3 comes out, if it was bad, the word would get out and nobody would pay $8000 for it. Plus, it would really turn off future customers. So I am thinking FSD on AP3 is going to be really good.

Where do you get this from? I assume what Elon tweeted yesterday, which was far from conclusive on the amount and timing. And taken with all of the recent price increases/decreases over the last 60 days, it would be ridiculous to state the price is being increased to $8k on may 1 with any authority. Please stop repeating everything Elon says on Twitter as gospel (particularly when it isn't even what he said)...
 
Where do you get this from? I assume what Elon tweeted yesterday, which was far from conclusive on the amount and timing. And taken with all of the recent price increases/decreases over the last 60 days, it would be ridiculous to state the price is being increased to $8k on may 1 with any authority. Please stop repeating everything Elon says on Twitter as gospel (particularly when it isn't even what he said)...

"He said that it will increase by “something like” $3,000, which would put the price of the package to around $8,000."
Tesla will increase Full Self-Driving option price ‘substantially’ on May 1

In any case, Musk also said that the price will increase "substantially". So we are going to see a price hike on FSD on May 1. So don't say I didn't warn you.
 
In the 2019.8.[3,5] release, I'm averaging one serious AutoPilot error PER DIRECTION, PER TRIP, mostly at spots that never caused problems before, even prior to the 9.0 release. (To be fair, it doesn't try to mount the center barriers like it did in pre-9.0 releases, so at least there's that.)

Just to add to your excellent list of regressions in the 2019.8 series, there is now a spot on my commute where it believes the speed limit has dropped to 25mph (on the highway) and it slams on the brakes. This is an area where I'm on an overpass and there's a fairly complicated interchange happening in 3-dimensional space -- which is really common on urban highways, not like some weird edge case. I can't tell if it has decided that I actually got off the exit or if it thinks I'm on the road under the overpass, but either way it didn't used to happen, and it's dangerous, and I hope they fix it soon.

On a practical note, does anybody know of any way to actually get the attention of somebody inside Tesla to look at an issue like this? Bug report is a black hole. (Also, in 2019.8, it usually takes several minutes to get bug report to work...)
 
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"He said that it will increase by “something like” $3,000, which would put the price of the package to around $8,000."
Tesla will increase Full Self-Driving option price ‘substantially’ on May 1

In any case, Musk also said that the price will increase "substantially". So we are going to see a price hike on FSD on May 1. So don't say I didn't warn you.

So it's going to the price it was before Tesla needed all the lower end Model 3 consumers to purchase AP and/or FSD?
 
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