Elon: "Feature complete for full self driving this year"

[electronblue]

Buy Model 3. Now.
Twitter

This must be what it feels like to be gaslighted. Seriously.

 

[Daniel in SD]

This must be what it feels like to be gaslighted. Seriously.

It seems like you’re letting the media and shorts cloud your judgement. Do you really want to bet against Elon and the mission?

 

[electronblue]

It seems like you’re letting the media and shorts cloud your judgement. Do you really want to bet against Elon and the mission?

What mission though? The BEV. Not in a million years. I am a firm believer in the product and the market. But then this is not about that, is it? It is about autonomous driving where Elon’s and Tesla’s credentials are much more muddled.

The shorts have got nothing to do with my thoughts on Tesla’s FSD progress. I have formed my opinion by driving a Tesla and following the autonomous driving tech sector in general.

If we are talking about a Level 2 ADAS Tesla Network that is one thing (maybe a sort of semi-autonomous Turo could work) but the idea that current Teslas would become autonomous in the sense that ARK Invest suggests...

That certainly feels like the world has gone mad — or is trying to make me go mad.

 

[lunitiks]

Ok so let's get this discussion over to a separate thread immediately...

Model 3 will generate cash flow of $10,000 per year at a minimum on an autonomous taxi platform

 

[rnortman]

It seems like you’re letting the media and shorts cloud your judgement. Do you really want to bet against Elon and the mission?

How is pointing out the ridiculousness of what they're saying about autonomous Model 3s betting against the mission? I believe in Tesla's EVs; they are the best BEVs currently out there (though stiff competition is coming eventually). But absolutely everything they've ever said about AVs is just flat out wrong. AVs are not their mission or else they'd be investing in it much more seriously than they are.

 

[Daniel in SD]

How is pointing out the ridiculousness of what they're saying about autonomous Model 3s betting against the mission? I believe in Tesla's EVs; they are the best BEVs currently out there (though stiff competition is coming eventually). But absolutely everything they've ever said about AVs is just flat out wrong. AVs are not their mission or else they'd be investing in it much more seriously than they are.

Haha. I was joking! We are definitely being gaslighted.
Poe's law - Wikipedia

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Therefore this isn't what people expected so saying that nag confirmation is not driver input is revising history.

In addition, the initial hidden release of NOA didn't have the nag confirmation before a lane change (Sept 2018)

I just want to follow up on this discussion. I finally got a chance to try ULC NoA, and for your info, since you do not have a Tesla: I can confirm that ULC NoA does NOT require driver input to change lanes. I just keep my hands on the wheel exactly as I normally do, and it simply changes lanes at will (I have it buzz the wheel at me before it signals). So, the dream has been realized; no driver input required - driver attention is all that is required!

I’m not sure why people here were saying some extra tug of the wheel is required - it is not.

 

[mongo]

I'm not sure why people here were saying some extra tug of the wheel is required - it is not.

My understanding:
Your hand position keeps the nag continually satisfied. If it didn't, the car would need you to provide proof of hands before changing lanes. That is the tug they are referring to. (Same tug they need to keep doing to clear the alert)

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

My understanding:
Your hand position keeps the nag continually satisfied. If it didn't, the car would need you to provide proof of hands before changing lanes. That is the tug they are referring to. (Same tug they need to keep doing to clear the alert)

Yes. I understand. It needs proof of hands at all times anyway. I am mystified about why anyone would use autopilot that way (hands not always on wheel) - seems like it would be super annoying to constantly be getting nagged!

 

[mongo]

Yes. I understand. It needs proof of hands at all times anyway. I am mystified about why anyone would use autopilot that way (hands not always on wheel) - seems like it would be super annoying to constantly be getting nagged!

The issue is hands detected though.
Normal (non AP) driving trains one to not apply a torque to the wheel the majority of the time. If one uses the standard two hand 10 and 2 position, there is no net torque for the vehicle to detect unless one intentionally adds force to the wheel. Thus, people can have their hands on the wheel and be ready to take over but not be detected by the car.

 

[conman]

Yes. I understand. It needs proof of hands at all times anyway. I am mystified about why anyone would use autopilot that way (hands not always on wheel) - seems like it would be super annoying to constantly be getting nagged!

The problem, if you've been around long enough, is that many of us drive with a touch light enough on the steering wheel for no torque to be detected by the vehicle - even with both hands on the wheel constantly - meaning we are guaranteed of getting a nag even with hands on the wheel. The difference with NoA is it has to have determined it has detected you within X timeframe of trying to do a lane change, and with us two handed drivers that means it will guarantee a nag before every lane change. I'm not interested in yet another discussion about how I should change my driving style or hold the wheel differently.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

The problem, if you've been around long enough, is that many of us drive with a touch light enough on the steering wheel for no torque to be detected by the vehicle - even with both hands on the wheel constantly - meaning we are guaranteed of getting a nag even with hands on the wheel. The difference with NoA is it has to have determined it has detected you within X timeframe of trying to do a lane change, and with us two handed drivers that means it will guarantee a nag before every lane change. I'm not interested in yet another discussion about how I should change my driving style or hold the wheel differently.

Interesting. Well, I haven’t noticed it, except for my first AP drive. Just seems to work, which is great. I guess I always have held the wheel firmly with my hands even before AP though; that might be the difference.

Touch sensor would be nice of course, I suppose. But practically for me it is a non-issue.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

The issue is hands detected though.
Normal (non AP) driving trains one to not apply a torque to the wheel the majority of the time. If one uses the standard two hand 10 and 2 position, there is no net torque for the vehicle to detect unless one intentionally adds force to the wheel. Thus, people can have their hands on the wheel and be ready to take over but not be detected by the car.

I guess I will see with more use...no long freeway AP road trip opportunity for me yet. Maybe I am just used to less powerful power steering so used to providing more constant torque. Though I have the Tesla on maximum assist, because I prefer it for whatever reason, my Subaru felt fairly sporty (stiff) - I couldn’t just drive it with my pinky finger.

I wonder if the torque sensitivity (or even the overall function of the sensing) depends at all on the selected steering assist level? I assume this has been discussed ad nauseum elsewhere though.

 

[mongo]

I guess I will see with more use...no long freeway AP road trip opportunity for me yet. Maybe I am just used to less powerful power steering so used to providing more constant torque. Though I have the Tesla on maximum assist, because I prefer it for whatever reason, my Subaru felt fairly sporty (stiff) - I couldn’t just drive it with my pinky finger.

I wonder if the torque sensitivity (or even the overall function of the sensing) depends at all on the selected steering assist level? I assume this has been discussed ad nauseum elsewhere though.

I have not heard of the AP detect or disable level being adjustable, but I can see that being handy (at least on the disengage side, detect should be at minimum force level).

 

[diplomat33]

From Tesla: ""Tesla is making significant progress in the development of its autonomous driving software and hardware, including our FSD computer, which is currently in production and which will enable full-self driving via future over-the-air software updates. With a number of very exciting developments coming in the weeks and months ahead, Tesla will host investors on the morning of April 19th at our headquarters in Palo Alto to provide a deep dive into our self-driving technology and road map"

Note that Tesla says that we can expect some "exciting developments coming in the weeks and months ahead". So I am thinking that that means AP3 upgrade and some FSD features in a software update.

 

[Randy7fx]

From Tesla: "

Note that Tesla says that we can expect some "exciting developments coming in the weeks and months ahead". So I am thinking that that means AP3 upgrade and some FSD features in a software update.

Historically speaking, "weeks" means "months, and "months" means "years" to Tesla...

 

[Soda Popinski]

Historically speaking, "weeks" means "months, and "months" means "years" to Tesla...

If we go "by the book," like Lt. Saavik, hours would seem like days...

 

[diplomat33]

I like to share news with you guys. I heard this little tidbit In the earnings conference call yesterday that is relevant to the topic of this thread:

Q: How soon should current owners that purchased FSD get the FSD computer?

Elon: There is no point in getting the FSD computer if you don't already have it in the car for probably about 2-3 months. That's when we'll start releasing FSD features that are materially different from the feature set that are currently available on the version 2 hardware. So there's no need to rush to get the computer upgrade. It's like 2-3 months before it becomes relevant and then it will increase rapidly from there.

Anyone think that Elon is saying to wait 2-3 months to avoid a mass stampede to service centers? LOL.

Yes, I am well aware that Elon promised divergence between EAP and FSD awhile go and nothing happened. But I think in light of the Autonomy Investor Day, this news has a bit more credibility, since we know that Tesla actually has some FSD features working now. And yes, I am aware of "Elon Time" and Elon himself says "probably" so the 2-3 months might be off a bit. Also, he says "start to release" and we all know that it takes time for the software updates to spread to the mass public. Having said, I am pleased with this news because it seems like we should be getting some real FSD features sometime later this year. I am thinking the first features will probably be the full traffic light and stop sign recognition where the car actually stops and goes. Although, I would imagine that is something that AP2 could still do. So maybe we will get some city driving FSD features.

 

[iTech]

I like to share news with you guys. I heard this little tidbit In the earnings conference call yesterday that is relevant to the topic of this thread:


Anyone think that Elon is saying to wait 2-3 months to avoid a mass stampede to service centers? LOL.

Yes, I am well aware that Elon promised divergence between EAP and FSD awhile go and nothing happened. But I think in light of the Autonomy Investor Day, this news has a bit more credibility, since we know that Tesla actually has some FSD features working now. And yes, I am aware of "Elon Time" and Elon himself says "probably" so the 2-3 months might be off a bit. Also, he says "start to release" and we all know that it takes time for the software updates to spread to the mass public. Having said, I am pleased with this news because it seems like we should be getting some real FSD features sometime later this year. I am thinking the first features will probably be the full traffic light and stop sign recognition where the car actually stops and goes. Although, I would imagine that is something that AP2 could still do. So maybe we will get some city driving FSD features.

So end of the year is when retrofitting will be available.

 

[diplomat33]

So end of the year is when retrofitting will be available.

Most likely yes since the goal is 2-3 months from now and they might be late.