Elon: "Feature complete for full self driving this year"

[daniel]

"Feature complete on FSD" is an entirely different thing than "driverless car." The problem is Tesla's less-than-honest use of "FSD" to mean, not a car that drives itself without a human in it, but rather means a specific set of features that would be better described as Extra-Enhanced Autopilot, since EAP already refers to a lesser set of features.

Tesla could roll out a set of features that improve on EAP without making the car able to drive itself without a human driver.

I agree with you that Musk makes entirely unjustified and irresponsible statements. But I repeat: I think that's part of his character, without which we would not be driving these cars today. And no, I never said and do not believe that everybody knows not to believe his timelines. One of the reasons his statements are irresponsible is because many people have not followed him enough to know this.

 

[Daniel in SD]

City NOA should put Tesla on the same level as Waymo

Seven years ago...

They’ll have a product that Waymo decided was too unsafe to bring to market. I don’t think they will ever release city NoA until it’s a level 3-5 system. Which Musk says will be next year

 

[cwerdna]

Seven years ago...

They’ll have a product that Waymo decided was too unsafe to bring to market. I don’t think they will ever release city NoA until it’s a level 3-5 system. Which Musk says will be next year

Actually more than 8.5 years ago... That video was posted supposedly in Oct 2010. The below seem to confirm the dates but the videos are busted.

Video: ABC News gets taken for a spin in Google's self-driving Toyota Prius - Autoblog
Video: Test Driving the Google Car
Test Driving the Google Car
Video: ABC News gets taken for a spin in Google's self-driving Toyota Prius — Autoblog

 

[wcorey]

I'm more interested in when the City NOA will be released to the fleet

Given parking lot navigation will predate City Nav that represents what Musk is calling feature complete. The rest is training the network.

FC is such a nebulous thing

No, it's really not.

 

[wcorey]

Seven years ago...

They’ll have a product that Waymo decided was too unsafe to bring to market. I don’t think they will ever release city NoA until it’s a level 3-5 system. Which Musk says will be next year

They were testing this in early 2000s. I recall when California granted permission for it to drive driverless to the Nevada border. At the time it had a huge superstructure on the roof, which seems missing in that picture.

 

[Daniel in SD]

They were testing this in early 2000s. I recall when California granted permission for it to drive driverless to the Nevada border. At the time it had a huge superstructure on the roof, which seems missing in that picture.

You’re probably thinking of the 2004 DARPA Grand Challenge (DARPA Grand Challenge (2004) - Wikipedia). That was an off-road autonomous vehicle race. The first year no one even finished the course. The next year 5 teams did. In 2007 they did an urban environment race. Arguably those vehicles were “feature complete” and many of the people who competed went on to work on Google’s autonomous vehicle project. This is why I think “feature complete” is an insignificant milestone.

 

[mongo]

"Feature complete on FSD" is an entirely different thing than "driverless car." The problem is Tesla's less-than-honest use of "FSD" to mean, not a car that drives itself without a human in it, but rather means a specific set of features that would be better described as Extra-Enhanced Autopilot, since EAP already refers to a lesser set of features.

FSD is the option package that gains you access to all upgrades to achieve FSD one it exists. Currently, it does not exist but the level of functionality increasing.

I like the switch to included AP which gets you adaptive cruise and FSD which gets everything else. Also appreciate the call out of current and soon to arrive functionality versus only the end goal.

 

[wcorey]

You’re probably thinking of the 2004 DARPA Grand Challenge (DARPA Grand Challenge (2004) - Wikipedia). That was an off-road autonomous vehicle race. The first year no one even finished the course. The next year 5 teams did. In 2007 they did an urban environment race. Arguably those vehicles were “feature complete” and many of the people who competed went on to work on Google’s autonomous vehicle project. This is why I think “feature complete” is an insignificant milestone.

Yet 2007 was 12 yrs ago. Thats a half century in technology.

 

[daniel]

FSD is the option package that gains you access to all upgrades to achieve FSD one it exists. Currently, it does not exist but the level of functionality increasing.

It is obvious to me that Tesla intends to call the "FSD" package "feature complete" when all the basic components are there, but before they are ready to move beyond Level 2 (driver must remain alert, eyes on the road and hands on the wheel, ready to take over on her own initiative at any instant).

This will indeed be an important accomplishment, but will not what was promised, for a very long time to come.

 

[EVNow]

No, it's really not.

Really - can you tell us what all features Tesla will complete by the time they declare FC ?

 

[Electricfan]

“However, people sometimes will extrapolate that to mean now it works with 100 percent certainty, requires no observation, perfectly. This is not the case."​

Well, you don't say, you call it "full self driving" and people "extrapolate" to think that it will be, you know, full self driving.

How many people here spent the cash on the FSD option thinking that one day, with any luck, it would be able to drive itself while you carefully supervise, ready to take over at a moment's notice?

I literally had my finger on the button to trade in my 2015 with AP1, when I first read the words "Full Self Driving" on Tesla's website. It really had me excited. I want it so bad.... But I count it as maybe the only wise decision I ever made not pulling the trigger on that. Four years after trading my 2013 for my 2015 which was supposed to drop me off at the door to the movie theater and park itself, I'm so glad I haven't spent that FSD money yet. In the future when I read on the forum that somebody's Tesla has FSD and it works great, and then I read at least a hundred other people say the same, then I'm trading my 2015 in. Right now I suspect that won't be until 2025, best guess.

 

[wcorey]

Really - can you tell us what all features Tesla will complete by the time they declare FC ?

I was answering your comment re: "feature complete" being a nebulous term. It's not. Customers don't have to know what a product manager or owner considers feature complete for a given product is, the development and support teams working on it do, the directors and xVPs have to know as they have to fund it. Marketing and Sales have to know as they have to sell it and form the interlocks w/i the company before the company agrees to fund it. Had you said, "To the customer base Feature Complete is a nebulous term" I would have agreed with you. I would go further and say to anyone not in that product's chain feature complete is a nebulous term as it relates to that product. For the simple reason they are invited to those meetings. This is precisely why I said the other day, I'll take him at his word. I bet if I (or you) go back to the Ark interview and/or Lex Friedman interview, there are likely hints there as what stories AKA requirements FSD has. Perhaps tomorrow when it's cooler, it's hot and muggy...well muggy now and I really don't feel like listening to Mush drone on right now. Yes, and that was deliberate.

 

[mongo]

It is obvious to me that Tesla intends to call the "FSD" package "feature complete" when all the basic components are there, but before they are ready to move beyond Level 2 (driver must remain alert, eyes on the road and hands on the wheel, ready to take over on her own initiative at any instant).

This will indeed be an important accomplishment, but will not what was promised, for a very long time to come.

Elon is a SW guy, when he says FSD will be feature complete, he does not mean FSD is finished. As shown by his differentiating FC with supervision released to the fleet and sleeping while your car drives.

That said, I think the new wording on the web site may allow them to claim FSD payments from new orders earlier in the development process than from people that purchased before the change (due to the shorter list of enumerated features).

 

[EVNow]

This is precisely why I said the other day, I'll take him at his word. I bet if I (or you) go back to the Ark interview and/or Lex Friedman interview, there are likely hints there as what stories AKA requirements FSD has. Perhaps tomorrow when it's cooler, it's hot and muggy...well muggy now and I really don't feel like listening to Mush drone on right now. Yes, and that was deliberate.

I don't know whether you have seen this … I've been trying to figure out what features would need to be included in FC.

Tracking FSD Feature Complete

 

[electronblue]

It is obvious to me that Tesla intends to call the "FSD" package "feature complete" when all the basic components are there, but before they are ready to move beyond Level 2 (driver must remain alert, eyes on the road and hands on the wheel, ready to take over on her own initiative at any instant).

This will indeed be an important accomplishment, but will not what was promised, for a very long time to come.

Let’s not forget though that during Autonomy Investor Day Tesla definied feature complete as Level 5 no geofence. To be Level 5 feature complete it would have to include for example full understanding of traffic signs and rules. The reliability can of course be prototype level, since it is just feature complete, not ready.

There is so much more to this than just adapting NoA to city streets.

 

[electronblue]

I was answering your comment re: "feature complete" being a nebulous term. It's not. Customers don't have to know what a product manager or owner considers feature complete for a given product is, the development and support teams working on it do, the directors and xVPs have to know as they have to fund it. Marketing and Sales have to know as they have to sell it and form the interlocks w/i the company before the company agrees to fund it. Had you said, "To the customer base Feature Complete is a nebulous term" I would have agreed with you. I would go further and say to anyone not in that product's chain feature complete is a nebulous term as it relates to that product. For the simple reason they are invited to those meetings. This is precisely why I said the other day, I'll take him at his word. I bet if I (or you) go back to the Ark interview and/or Lex Friedman interview, there are likely hints there as what stories AKA requirements FSD has. Perhaps tomorrow when it's cooler, it's hot and muggy...well muggy now and I really don't feel like listening to Mush drone on right now. Yes, and that was deliberate.

There is one additional point to this: Tesla/Musk defined ”feature complete by end of 2019” as ”Level 5 no geofence” feature complete at the Autonomy Investory Day so we have a public claim by the company on what their internal feature list to be completed amounts to.

As you implied, a CEO of a publicly traded company can not lie about this, so we know what their feature complete means.

 

[electronblue]

I don't know whether you have seen this … I've been trying to figure out what features would need to be included in FC.

Tracking FSD Feature Complete

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Isn’t the answer basically everything on that list given that Tesla defined feature complete at the end of 2019 as ”Level 5 no geofence” at the Autonomy Investor Day?

 

[diplomat33]

FC is such a nebulous thing - esp., when the feature set itself is not publicly defined, meeting that isn't all that difficult.

FC is not nebulous. Tesla has publicly defined it. Just read the FSD order page when you are ordering s new Tesla. FC is NOA highway, auto lane change, auto park, enhanced summon, traffic light and stop sign recognition and automatic driving on city streets.

Now we can debate what sub-features are required but those are the big features that Tesla plans to sell in some form that constitutes FC.

 

[diplomat33]

Isn’t the answer basically everything on that list given that Tesla defined feature complete at the end of 2019 as ”Level 5 no geofence” at the Autonomy Investor Day?

FC is NOA highway, auto lane change, auto park, enhanced summon, traffic light and stop sign recognition and automatic driving on city streets.

FC will not be L5 on release because it will initially require driver supervision. But Tesla is designing FSD to be L5 after they move past FC. And, Tesla intends FSD to have the same ODD as L5 (ie every road, all weather and day and night).

 

[wcorey]

I don't know whether you have seen this … I've been trying to figure out what features would need to be included in FC.

Tracking FSD Feature Complete

View attachment 427200

That's an impressive list.

I don't know whether you have seen this … I've been trying to figure out what features would need to be included in FC.

Tracking FSD Feature Complete

View attachment 427200

But I saw no attribution to Tesla. In fact there is this sentence @Wiki put in.
I want to just list what features we should expect in FSD feature complete and track when they get released in this thread.
It's all well and good the features the customers think are necessary for a product to be feature complete but the customers don't get to decide that.