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Elon: "Feature complete for full self driving this year"

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I bet there's a lot of work in just making it user friendly enough to ship and handle unsupported cases, like you need all the 3D visuals and friendly messages that tell you what is going on like highway NoA has e.g. "Unsupported tunnel in 300 feet", "unsupported maneuver, prepare to take control", "Upcoming lane change, press stalk to confirm". In city driving you probably will have dozens or hundreds of cases like that compared to highway NoA. I bet they will require you to confirm with a press on the stalk before it navigates through an intersection, and visually show it's not going to turn using the wrong lane, etc.
 
He also made a point of saying feature complete just means a "non zero chance of it working- not that it will work well"

Which sounds like an effective way to obfuscate the fact that he's saying "There's a chance it might work. We don't know how big a chance. Maybe a one-percent chance."

I do feel for people who paid good money trusting Tesla when they said the cars had all the necessary hardware, and now they find themselves with cars that may or may not get the hardware.
 
I know the gist of Elon's answers has already been posted but as promised, here is a full transcript of Elon's answers:

1. You set expectations that you would be feature complete on FSD by the end of 2019. Can you please provide an update on when we may see this with end users? Where are you in retrofitting the FSD computer to older models?

Elon: To be precise, I said hoping to be feature complete by end of last year. We got pretty close. We might be feature complete in a few months. But feature complete just means it has some chance of going from your home to say your work with no interventions. It does not mean all the features are working well. It has above zero chance. Looks like a couple months from now.

What isn't obvious with Autopilot and Full Self-Driving, is just how much work has been going into improving the foundational elements of autonomy. The core Autopilot in Tesla Autopilot software and AI team is very strong and making great progress and we are only beginning to take full advantage of the Autopilot/FSD hardware. So the apparent progress as seen by consumers will seem to be extremely rapid but actually what is really happening is having the foundational software be very strong and then the really fundamental thing is video training in terms of labeling. So labeling with video and all 8 camera simultaneously. In terms of labeling efficiency it is a 3 order of magnitude improvement in labeling efficiency. For those who know about this, it's extremely fundamental. We're making great progress on that.


2. Elon, can you give us an update on the Dojo project you talked about at Autonomy Day? Beyond that, any details on Tesla’s self-supervised learning efforts—along with how these efforts are helping Tesla achieve FSD capabilities—would be great.

Question was skipped.
 
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Elon: To be precise, I said hoping to be feature by end of last year.

Typical Elon lies and re-visionary history.

Lets roll the tape.

Feb 19 2019: "The car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up, take you all the way to your destination without an intervention this year. I'm certain of that."

May 9th 2019: "We could have gamed an LA/NY Autopilot journey last year, but when we do it this year, everyone with Tesla Full Self-Driving will be able to do it too"

Not only that, but the "We could have gamed it" is another classic Elon lie and re-visionary history in addition to the FSD complete debacle. When you look at the initial statement of the cross country drive that would happen by the end of 2017. He was adamant that it won't be gamed and that they would be able to switch the routes at any time on the day of the drive.
 
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I know the gist of Elon's answers has already been posted but as promised, here is a full transcript of Elon's answers:

1. You set expectations that you would be feature complete on FSD by the end of 2019. Can you please provide an update on when we may see this with end users? Where are you in retrofitting the FSD computer to older models?

Elon: To be precise, I said hoping to be feature by end of last year. We got pretty close. We might be feature complete in a few months. But feature complete just means it has some chance of going from your home to say your work with no interventions. It does not mean all the features are working well. It has above zero chance. Looks like a couple months from now.

What isn't obvious with Autopilot and Full Self-Driving, is just how much work has been going into improving the foundational elements of autonomy. The core Autopilot in Tesla Autopilot software and AI team is very strong and making great progress and we are only beginning to take full advantage of the Autopilot/FSD hardware. So the apparent progress as seen by consumers will seem to be extremely rapid but actually what is really happening is having the foundational software be very strong and then the really fundamental thing is video training in terms of labeling. So labeling with video and all 8 camera simultaneously. In terms of labeling efficiency it is a 3 order of magnitude improvement in labeling efficiency. For those who know about this, it's extremely fundamental. We're making great progress on that.


2. Elon, can you give us an update on the Dojo project you talked about at Autonomy Day? Beyond that, any details on Tesla’s self-supervised learning efforts—along with how these efforts are helping Tesla achieve FSD capabilities—would be great.

Question was skipped.

Labeling on all 8 cameras across multiple frames seems like it would help with some of the edge cases the vision system is really bad at today. Like when you have long vehicles that span multiple cameras or adjacent cars completely fill the camera frame, it tends to make really bad predictions in those cases. Cars phase in and out of existence, or the depth estimation goes bonkers, or it thinks a long truck is many different cars.
 
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Labeling on all 8 cameras across multiple frames seems like it would help with some of the edge cases the vision system is really bad at today. Like when you have long vehicles that span multiple cameras or adjacent cars completely fill the camera frame, it tends to make really bad predictions in those cases. Cars phase in and out of existence, or the depth estimation goes bonkers, or it thinks a long truck is many different cars.

Yes, I definitely think that is what Elon is referring to. And yes, strong video labeling across all 8 cameras simultaneously, should help with those cases and give AP more reliable perception. And this should lead to more reliable AP behavior.
 
Elon: What isn't obvious with Autopilot and Full Self-Driving, is just how much work has been going into improving the foundational elements of autonomy. The core Autopilot in Tesla Autopilot software and AI team is very strong and making great progress and we are only beginning to take full advantage of the Autopilot/FSD hardware. So the apparent progress as seen by consumers will seem to be extremely rapid but actually what is really happening is having the foundational software be very strong and then the really fundamental thing is video training in terms of labeling. So labeling with video and all 8 camera simultaneously. In terms of labeling efficiency it is a 3 order of magnitude improvement in labeling efficiency. For those who know about this, it's extremely fundamental. We're making great progress on that.

This might be a pretty honest answer from Elon, actually. Note there is no mention of robotaxis or when we will sleep in our Teslas. Instead, he is admitting that Tesla is just now taking advantage of the FSD computer and still working on getting the basic foundations of autonomy strong.
 
let me translate software-speak, a little.

when he says 'feature complete', I really think he's talking about 'code complete'.

what that means is that all the design elements are coded - that will go into the 'final' product. they will compile, and that's all that you can promise. that's code-complete.

you finish coding, then you spend LOTS of time debugging and testing. code-complete can even mean that no unit-testing is done, let alone integration or system-level testing. no HIL or SIL. no testing at all. just 'it compiles and builds' (the software images).

when elon said 'non-zero chance', to me that really sounds like 'code complete' talk. like 'well, it might actually work. we don't expect it but hey, anything is possible'.
 
He completely dodged the retrofit question. 1000000%

and he stumbled on his words.

saying nothing, says more then not saying anything.

If they had good news to tell us, they wouldve told us.

im expecting the worst at this point and that ap2 will be treated just like ap1 and they will deem the retrofit too complicated.

and even if they setup a program for owners who waited it out...which im telling you now i will be waiting it out just on principle....

it will be a long time before they make it right.

class action is gunna form, and we’ll all get checks for $40 again.

and our cars will get stranded in the past when we busted our asses dropping 80-150k on a car we were told would get better into the future.

we didnt only buy the car, we bought the ideology of future updates that the purchase would provide to us. And now we didn't even get a vague answer....we got NO ANSWER.

This is beyond ridiculous now.
 
im expecting the worst at this point and that ap2 will be treated just like ap1 and they will deem the retrofit too complicated.

and even if they setup a program for owners who waited it out...which im telling you now i will be waiting it out just on principle....

it will be a long time before they make it right.

class action is gunna form, and we’ll all get checks for $40 again..


You got $40 because you didn't get the basic AP features as quickly as Tesla said you would.

But you did get them

If Tesla decided AP2 cars who bought FSD simply can't be upgraded to get that at all they'd have to issue them full refunds.

I suppose you could file a class action asking for interest on that $ if you wanted to though.
 
He completely dodged the retrofit question. 1000000%

and he stumbled on his words.

saying nothing, says more then not saying anything.

If they had good news to tell us, they wouldve told us.

im expecting the worst at this point and that ap2 will be treated just like ap1 and they will deem the retrofit too complicated.

and even if they setup a program for owners who waited it out...which im telling you now i will be waiting it out just on principle....

it will be a long time before they make it right.

class action is gunna form, and we’ll all get checks for $40 again.

and our cars will get stranded in the past when we busted our asses dropping 80-150k on a car we were told would get better into the future.

we didnt only buy the car, we bought the ideology of future updates that the purchase would provide to us. And now we didn't even get a vague answer....we got NO ANSWER.

This is beyond ridiculous now.
I believe he was not dodging. The moderator accepted his answer to FSD part, then said like - OK, here is the next question from retail investors. He should’ve reminded.
 
Typical Elon lies and re-visionary history.

Lets roll the tape.

Feb 19 2019: "The car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up, take you all the way to your destination without an intervention this year. I'm certain of that."

May 9th 2019: "We could have gamed an LA/NY Autopilot journey last year, but when we do it this year, everyone with Tesla Full Self-Driving will be able to do it too"

Not only that, but the "We could have gamed it" is another classic Elon lie and re-visionary history in addition to the FSD complete debacle. When you look at the initial statement of the cross country drive that would happen by the end of 2017. He was adamant that it won't be gamed and that they would be able to switch the routes at any time on the day of the drive.

On the plus side it's so watered down now that future edits should be minor. :p
 
You got $40 because you didn't get the basic AP features as quickly as Tesla said you would.

But you did get them

If Tesla decided AP2 cars who bought FSD simply can't be upgraded to get that at all they'd have to issue them full refunds.

I suppose you could file a class action asking for interest on that $ if you wanted to though.

They aren’t giving us full refunds, maybe the FSD price, but not the 100k. Not happening