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Elon: "Feature complete for full self driving this year"

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Yes I think that is data is probably somewhat accurate. 1 "accident" per 2.1 million miles vs. 1 "accident" per 1.64 million miles. They don't appear to be correcting for demographics or anything else but it seems very likely that active safety features make cars safer. ....

That's one data point -- the overall improvement has been better than that in other recent quarters and I expect the overall trend will continue to improve as the system continues to learn, but I appreciate your acknowledging that it likely represents an improvement.

upload_2020-3-14_13-33-41.png
 
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Demanding a higher level of proof for automated driving technology than we require for cars that don't have it is another form of putting in place hurdles that slow down progress. The data that Tesla has released shows that Teslas with and without Autopilot get in far fewer accidents than average cars. If you want more data, don't buy the car. If you want safer highways, force other car brands whose cars get in accidents at far higher rates to adopt and improve their automated driver assistance, so the fools driving them stop cutting me off and drifting into my lane. And force them to get cracking on stopping for red lights, as running red lights is a major cause of serious accidents.

This is absolutely ridiculous and i can't believe this still gets paraded here after its been debunked a thousand times.

PART 1

The stat is completely worthless.

It doesn't consider:

  1. The fact that the majority of cars in the NHTSA stats includes cars from late 90s and Early 2000s with little or no safety feature.

  2. The fact that the Tesla stat is only counting very narrow Highway incidents while the NHTSA stats is counting incidents from highway, surface streets, urban, suburban country, etc. Where most accidents/deaths happen at.

  3. The fact that ~50% of Teslas are in CA where the roads are pristine and the weather is spotless with no inclement weather of any kind. However the NHTSA stats is from all 50 states and contains every inclement weather imaginable.

  4. The fact that Autopilot even in other states are likely not to be used by owner in inclement weather while the NHTSA stats obviously does.

  5. The fact that the demographic of NHTSA include teenagers who have by far the most accident rate and Tesla's stats only include luxury rich demographic.
With these facts, the stats that Tesla are releasing are virtually worthless. They know that and are releasing it because they know their fans only care about propaganda and not about the truth. And that their fans will believe and evangelize ANYTHING and they can convince the masses with fabricated and misleading facts.

If you cared about the facts and real data (you don't because you an obvoius tesla fan). Then being that majority of tesla cars were made in 2018 and above. You would compare their statistics with the stats of other luxury (same price range) cars that were made in 2018 or above.

But that would mean using common sense, logic, geographic and independent verifiable data, which is forbidden in the tesla fanclub.

At the end of the day the safety rate of Tesla's cars and AP ends up being the same (maybe in worse) as other luxury car models.

That's one data point -- the overall improvement has been better than that in other recent quarters and I expect the overall trend will continue to improve as the system continues to learn, but I appreciate your acknowledging that it likely represents an improvement.

View attachment 521819


PART 2

How many deaths a year do you think Tesla has? Have you even looked it up?

Tesla sold about ~200k cars 2nd half of 2019. A more correct number is 350k. If we do the math, US drivers drive on average 30 miles a day.

350,000 cars * 30 miles = 10,500,000 million miles 10,500,000 miles * 365 days = 3,832,500,000 billion miles 3,832,500,000 billion miles / 100 million (the average mile per vehicle fatality in the US) = 38.325 deaths.

So there needs to be 38 deaths per year. But then most cars in the NHTSA data are 90s and early 2000s with little to no safety feature and outdated occupant protection. Plus the difference in democracy as there are way more teen and younger driver in NHTSA average data than the mature and older drivers of Tesla.

For example Uber recently released their data for fatalities and they had 49 fatalities on over 8.2 billion miles in 2017. Their figure was almost half that of the national average. Uber requires you to use a car that is 2005 or newer. Imagine if they showed their Uber Lux (2010 car or newer requirement) or Uber Black (2015 car or newer requirement) figures. It would be even lower.

Uber’s fatal accident tally shows low rates but excludes key numbers – TechCrunch

When you take that into consideration. Tesla would need to have just 19 deaths to match uber's fleet or most likely ~9.5 deaths in 2019 to match a theoretical Uber Lux / Uber Black fleet.

This site has a list of deaths involving Tesla cars for 2019. TeslaDeaths.com: Digital record of Tesla crashes resulting in death

I counted 16 for Tesla drivers and occupants. But then there's alot more for pedestrian and cyclist and then alot more for the occupants of other drivers.

So the full number is more than double the 38 deaths. U.S. Transportation Secretary Elaine L. Chao Announces Further Decreases in Roadway Fatalities
 
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This is absolutely ridiculous and i can't believe this still gets paraded here after its been debunked a thousand times.

PART 1

The stat is completely worthless.

It doesn't consider:

  1. The fact that the majority of cars in the NHTSA stats includes cars from late 90s and Early 2000s with little or no safety feature.

  2. The fact that the Tesla stat is only counting very narrow Highway incidents while the NHTSA stats is counting incidents from highway, surface streets, urban, suburban country, etc. Where most accidents/deaths happen at.

  3. The fact that ~50% of Teslas are in CA where the roads are pristine and the weather is spotless with no inclement weather of any kind. However the NHTSA stats is from all 50 states and contains every inclement weather imaginable.

  4. The fact that Autopilot even in other states are likely not to be used by owner in inclement weather while the NHTSA stats obviously does.

  5. The fact that the demographic of NHTSA include teenagers who have by far the most accident rate and Tesla's stats only include luxury rich demographic.
With these facts, the stats that Tesla are releasing are virtually worthless. They know that and are releasing it because they know their fans only care about propaganda and not about the truth. And that their fans will believe and evangelize ANYTHING and they can convince the masses with fabricated and misleading facts.

If you cared about the facts and real data (you don't because you an obvoius tesla fan). Then being that majority of tesla cars were made in 2018 and above. You would compare their statistics with the stats of other luxury (same price range) cars that were made in 2018 or above.

But that would mean using common sense, logic, geographic and independent verifiable data, which is forbidden in the tesla fanclub.

At the end of the day the safety rate of Tesla's cars and AP ends up being the same (maybe in worse) as other luxury car models.




PART 2

How many deaths a year do you think Tesla has? Have you even looked it up?

Tesla sold about ~200k cars 2nd half of 2019. A more correct number is 350k. If we do the math, US drivers drive on average 30 miles a day.

350,000 cars * 30 miles = 10,500,000 million miles 10,500,000 miles * 365 days = 3,832,500,000 billion miles 3,832,500,000 billion miles / 100 million (the average mile per vehicle fatality in the US) = 38.325 deaths.

So there needs to be 38 deaths per year. But then most cars in the NHTSA data are 90s and early 2000s with little to no safety feature and outdated occupant protection. Plus the difference in democracy as there are way more teen and younger driver in NHTSA average data than the mature and older drivers of Tesla.

For example Uber recently released their data for fatalities and they had 49 fatalities on over 8.2 billion miles in 2017. Their figure was almost half that of the national average. Uber requires you to use a car that is 2005 or newer. Imagine if they showed their Uber Lux (2010 car or newer requirement) or Uber Black (2015 car or newer requirement) figures. It would be even lower.

Uber’s fatal accident tally shows low rates but excludes key numbers – TechCrunch

When you take that into consideration. Tesla would need to have just 19 deaths to match uber's fleet or most likely ~9.5 deaths in 2019 to match a theoretical Uber Lux / Uber Black fleet.

This site has a list of deaths involving Tesla cars for 2019. TeslaDeaths.com: Digital record of Tesla crashes resulting in death

I counted 16 for Tesla drivers and occupants. But then there's alot more for pedestrian and cyclist and then alot more for the occupants of other drivers.

So the full number is more than double the 38 deaths. U.S. Transportation Secretary Elaine L. Chao Announces Further Decreases in Roadway Fatalities

LOL, a textbook Gish gallop. What a hot mess. Gish gallop - Wikipedia

Can't wait for Tesla to release its next FSD features and continue making the roads safer, despite the nonstop effort by so many to slow down progress at the cost of many lives.
 
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LOL, a textbook Gish gallop. What a hot mess. Gish gallop - Wikipedia

Can't wait for Tesla to release its next FSD features and continue making the roads safer, despite the nonstop effort by so many to slow down progress at the cost of many lives.

"The Gish gallop is a technique used during debating that focuses on overwhelming an opponent with as many arguments as possible, without regard for accuracy or strength of the arguments."

I'm gonna break it down to 3 points per post to help you out with supporting evidence.

1. Majority of cars in the NHTSA stats includes cars from late 90s and Early 2000s with little or no safety feature.
2. The fact that the Tesla stat is only counting very narrow limited access highway incidents while the NHTSA stats is counting incidents from highway, surface streets, intersections, urban, suburban, rural, etc. Where most accidents/deaths happen at.
  • In 2018, 70 percent of crash deaths in urban areas occurred on roads less than 55 mph.
  • In rural areas, majority of all fatal crashes occur on two lane highways, narrow or nonexistent shoulders, and limited sight distance due to hills and curves.
3. The fact that ~50% of Teslas are in CA where the roads are pristine and the weather is spotless with no inclement weather of any kind. However the NHTSA stats is from all 50 states and contains every inclement weather imaginable.
 
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"The Gish gallop is a technique used during debating that focuses on overwhelming an opponent with as many arguments as possible, without regard for accuracy or strength of the arguments."

I'm gonna break it down to 3 points per post to help you out with supporting evidence.

1. Majority of cars in the NHTSA stats includes cars from late 90s and Early 2000s with little or no safety feature.
2. The fact that the Tesla stat is only counting very narrow limited access highway incidents while the NHTSA stats is counting incidents from highway, surface streets, intersections, urban, suburban, rural, etc. Where most accidents/deaths happen at.
  • In 2018, 70 percent of crash deaths in urban areas occurred on roads less than 55 mph.
  • In rural areas, majority of all fatal crashes occur on two lane highways, narrow or nonexistent shoulders, and limited sight distance due to hills and curves.
3. The fact that ~50% of Teslas are in CA where the roads are pristine and the weather is spotless with no inclement weather of any kind. However the NHTSA stats is from all 50 states and contains every inclement weather imaginable.

1. Your first point is invalid because driving overall has gotten slightly LESS safe since 2010, not more safe as you suggest. (4th column in the chart below is fatalities per 100 million miles, which have increased a bit).

This is why we must accelerate development of automated driving systems like FSD and Autopilot, and why all the fearmongering about them is so reckless and irresponsible.

Screenshot_2020-03-15 Motor vehicle fatality rate in U S by year - Wikipedia.png


Motor vehicle fatality rate in U.S. by year - Wikipedia

2. This does create the possibility of an apples-to-oranges comparison -- luckily that will be less of an issue when Tesla activates stop sign and red light assistance and other features that will result in more usage on surface streets.

It also is worth noting that per the chart I posted before (copied below), there is strong evidence that Tesla's active safety features built on the Autopilot system are also significantly reducing accidents compared to a good control -- Tesla's w/o Autopilot or Active Safety. While there is a theoretical possibility that demographic differences are responsible for the reduced accidents that seems unlikely.


upload_2020-3-15_9-52-17.png


3. More California cars don't explain the improvements. The IIHS found that California had only slightly lower fatality rates than the US as a whole. (1.02 v. 1.13 deaths per VMT). Fatality Facts 2018: State by state Also, if California roads were the explanation for reduced accidents, we would be unlikely to see the significant reduction in accidents between Teslas with active safety features and those without per the chart above. They are all Teslas and would be expected to have roughly the same distribution in the US.

The main takeaway is that however you slice it, the average car is getting in accidents at rates far higher than Teslas either with AP or with active safety features.

It is obvious that anyone who had a genuine interest in reducing accidents should be focusing their attention on how to improve the safety of non-Teslas. Instead, strangely enough, many people -- including people who are not Tesla owners and have no intention of owning one -- spend crazy amounts of time and energy attacking the safest cars on the road.
 
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1. Your first point is invalid because driving overall has gotten slightly LESS safe since 2010, not more safe as you suggest. (4th column in the chart below is fatalities per 100 million miles, which have increased a bit).

This is why we must accelerate development of automated driving systems like FSD and Autopilot, and why all the fearmongering about them is so reckless and irresponsible.

View attachment 522031

Motor vehicle fatality rate in U.S. by year - Wikipedia

2. This does create the possibility of an apples-to-oranges comparison -- luckily that will be less of an issue when Tesla activates stop sign and red light assistance and other features that will result in more usage on surface streets.

It also is worth noting that per the chart I posted before (copied below), there is strong evidence that Tesla's active safety features built on the Autopilot system are also significantly reducing accidents compared to a good control -- Tesla's w/o Autopilot or Active Safety. While there is a theoretical possibility that demographic differences are responsible for the reduced accidents that seems unlikely.


View attachment 522029

3. More California cars don't explain the improvements. The IIHS found that California had only slightly lower fatality rates than the US as a whole. (1.02 v. 1.13 deaths per VMT). Fatality Facts 2018: State by state Also, if California roads were the explanation for reduced accidents, we would be unlikely to see the significant reduction in accidents between Teslas with active safety features and those without per the chart above. They are all Teslas and would be expected to have roughly the same distribution in the US.

The main takeaway is that however you slice it, the average car is getting in accidents at rates far higher than Teslas either with AP or with active safety features.

It is obvious that anyone who had a genuine interest in reducing accidents should be focusing their attention on how to improve the safety of non-Teslas. Instead, strangely enough, many people -- including people who are not Tesla owners and have no intention of owning one -- spend crazy amounts of time and energy attacking the safest cars on the road.

You dismissed every research and independent verifiable fact by wishywashing, "maybe maybe not" "unlikely", etc. This is typical fan logic. 1+1 is not equal to 2 according to you. "It could be 21" you would reply.

I had a big response which i mistakenly deleted.

1) Cars are way more safer than older cars. I gave you the link and evidence and you refused it. You then used a fatality stat OUT of context. If you actually research the trend. You will see that the increase in accidents and fatalities are due to the advent of smartphones, texting, social media while driving which has spiked distracted driving percentage on each crash. Secondly the fact that more teenagers are driving now more than in the past.

https://www.wfmd.com/2019/10/21/more-teen-drivers-getting-licenses-before-theyre-18/

Stop butchering the facts and ignoring data. Go to the research I linked and read them.

2. The improvement you see in Active safety is the same improvement as in other active safety on other cars. How is it that you refuse to understand that? Infact it's worse compared to some cars. Now the difference in AP and no AP is again comparing road types. Limited Access highway versus all road types.

Lastly it's not just stopping for traffic lights. The system would have to do every thing in those road types AND IMPORTANTLY tesla has to include all incidents in these road types in their stats.

3. Again you dismissed geography with absolute laughable argument. I guess NHTSA is wasting their time proving that 17% of crashes is due to winter conditions. You again take stats out of context. Read the research linked. You cant compare one state versus all others because like half the country experiences winter condition while the other half doesnt. Also you cant use fatality in this context because fatality is affected way way way more by road types than by winter or heavy rain. But winter condition increases the rate by +17%. It doesnt increase the fatality by 17%.

Again stop making stuff up. Read the actually stuff from NHTSA research. Stop trying to cherry picking data and trying to twist it.

Lastly this is just 3 out of the 10 things and you already dismissed them with no data or evidence. I didnt even get to age demography. But I surmise you will dismiss that outright too.

This is pure fandom behaviour.

Conclusion. Tesla cars are just as safe and sometimes less safe than other same models year car. For example we can look at other countries and see that Tesla has way more insurance claims and accidents. But I bet you will dismiss that too.

Facts dont matter.
 
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@Bladerskb,

Your arguments don't hold any water. You obviously are not being objective and have an axe to grind for whatever reason:

1) The reasons accident rates for non-Teslas are not falling is irrelevant to a comparison of accident rates between Tesla's (with and without Autopilot) and other cars. The fact is that they aren't falling and in fact appear to be increasing slightly (which you don't refute).

2) You do not refute that Tesla's active safety system based on Autopilot reduces accidents. Instead you misdirect with an unsupported claim that there are other systems on the market that you claim are just as good. That is false but doesn't refute the fact that the Autopilot system is reducing accidents even when it is not activated.

3) You argued in a previous post that a lower accident rate in California could explain why Tesla cars had fewer accidents but cited no direct evidence to support that. I pointed out direct evidence from the NHTSA that fatality rates are only marginally better in California and can't explain the large differences, which refutes your argument. I also pointed out that lower accident rates in California could not explain why Teslas with active safety perform better than those without. You don't refute that either. Instead you just repeat your strained argument about driving in snow.

As for the insults, personal attacks and name-calling throughout your post, I don't understand why this website tolerates it, but I don't. Especially from people who seem to have made it their full time job to attack Tesla (and promote Mobileye) on the Internet, and will not change their mind no matter how much evidence is presented to them.

Buh-bye.
 
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What's going on right now with the corona virus and Elon's defiance to close his Fremont factory while there is ongoing lock-down on all business, orders from the county and the sheriff. He tries to come up with BS excuses that they "need to stay open for Homeland security". Now the city attorney's are discussing legal recourse. This is why we need clear, strict and independent SDC law. I have always said in the past that Elon will try to release unsafe/subpar system (as he has already) and claim that its the best in the world and better than human drivers and resist and fight any regulatory oversight when accidents starts piling up.
 
What's going on right now with the corona virus and Elon's defiance to close his Fremont factory while there is ongoing lock-down on all business, orders from the county and the sheriff. He tries to come up with BS excuses that they "need to stay open for Homeland security". Now the city attorney's are discussing legal recourse. This is why we need clear, strict and independent SDC law. I have always said in the past that Elon will try to release unsafe/subpar system (as he has already) and claim that its the best in the world and better than human drivers and resist and fight any regulatory oversight when accidents starts piling up.
What is BS is trying to use keeping a plant open as a rational to beat your drum regarding SDCs.The biggish 3 were trying to stay open too, until their suppliers a workers were diagnosed, so don't act like it is a Tesla specific thing.

What is even more BS is making up a quote and then attributing it to Elon.
Per CNBC Tesla factory is still open for business as Musk tells employees 'I will personally be at work'
A follow-up email from North American HR leader Valerie Workman explained to Tesla employees, “During this time, the federal government has directed that all National Critical Infrastructure continue to operate during this pandemic,” and that Tesla fell into this category. “People need access to transportation and energy, and we are essential to providing it.”

You want rule of law? Under Federal law, which supersedes State or local, Tesla falls under the umbrella of Critical Infrastructure per Critical Manufacturing Sector | CISA
Transportation Equipment Manufacturing
  • Vehicles and Commercial Ships Manufacturing

Addendum, The County has agreed to let Fremont continue operating at 25% staffing.
 
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What is BS is trying to use keeping a plant open as a rational to beat your drum regarding SDCs.

Elon is putting millions of people's lives at risk in order to make money. What's the point of a lock down if you have 15k people going to work in one place, taking packed buses to and from work.

The biggish 3 were trying to stay open too, until their suppliers a workers were diagnosed, so don't act like it is a Tesla specific thing.

Neither Michigan nor Detroit is under mandatory lock-down. All business are operating and the only thing closed are bars. Restaurants do carry out for example.

Tesla defied mandatory city lock down for several days from the city authorities and the sheriff.

What is even more BS is making up a quote and then attributing it to Elon.

Whose making the calls, you think its some random HR guy? Seriously what's disgusting is the constant deflecting of responsibility from Elon by any means necessary.

You want rule of law? Under Federal law, which supersedes State or local, Tesla falls under the umbrella of Critical Infrastructure per Critical Manufacturing Sector | CISA

No, federal law doesn't supersede state or local law in the way you think. Learn how laws work.

Addendum, The County has agreed to let Fremont continue operating at 25% staffing.

This is simply another lie from Elon. The reports says there weren't a timetable from Tesla.
100% guarantee all workers will be there tomorrow. This is a typical Elon move as he stonewalls.
He will keep saying 'soon' or 'next week' as the number of employees remain relatively the same.

Elon is finding every way to defies and obstruct the law as he has done time and time again. As he will do if there's no strict and clear law about SDC.
 
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Addendum, The County has agreed to let Fremont continue operating at 25% staffing.

County says 'no car manufacturing' and guess what Tesla is still doing right now? Still manufacturing cars and they are told to all show up tomorrow because prod is still going at 100% capacity.

Are you gonna finally admit you were wrong and that i'm right?

Just like i said, unless there is a clear, strict and enforced SDC laws. Elon will do whatever he wants and put lives in danger and ppl like you will back him every step of the way no matter what.
 
County says 'no car manufacturing' and guess what Tesla is still doing right now? Still manufacturing cars and they are told to all show up tomorrow because prod is still going at 100% capacity.

Are you gonna finally admit you were wrong and that i'm right?

Just like i said, unless there is a clear, strict and enforced SDC laws. Elon will do whatever he wants and put lives in danger and ppl like you will back him every step of the way no matter what.

They're going from 100% to 25%
Tesla Fremont factory will operate with 1/4 of workforce after negotiation with Sheriff's Office - Electrek
 
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You do understand what "after negotiation" means, right?

What am I saying; of course you don't.

Never mind.

Did you actually read what the Sheriff and county Office said about the negotiation?

"Alameda County says that the limited operations at Tesla factory cannot involve making vehicles. They will take action if Tesla doesn’t comply."

THEY ARE STILL MAKING CARS.

What part of that is hard to understand?

Not only that, all their employees are being told to report to work and that nothing has changed.

What part of that is hard to understand?

The "Negotiation" was a farce because Elon knew he wouldn't abide by them anyway. This is not the first time he has done that, he's done it time and time again.

You think he won't do it for SDC laws? He's already doing it for ADAS laws.
 
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