Elon: FSD Beta tweets

[S4WRXTTCS]

My evidence is that no one successfully built reusable orbital rockets before Space X. The same fate will likely fall on FSD. Whoever creates it first will likely enjoy a long while alone at the top before another company joins them.

There are a lot of differences in terms of what the challenge was, and who took on the risk.

The stubborn "lets keep trying" aspect of Elon really helped achieve reusable orbital rockets, and the ones who took the risk were investors in SpaceX. The challenge was well defined in terms of what the challenge was, and what success looked like. SpaceX to a large extent had control over their own destiny. Also just as important the Engineers that pulled it off were given freedom in choosing what would work best for the job. It's not like anyone is going to worry about a couple dollars for a rain sensor at SpaceX (exaggerated example, but obviously a rocket worth millions is something worth of good sensors).

All those things weren't in place for autonomous driving.

To start with the risk was put on the customers as it was the customer money.

The Engineers weren't given free reign on what to select for the job, and instead had to fit everything within the low cost that Elon wanted. Lots of Engineers working on it now came AFTER the HW was basically set in stone.

The biggest problem with autonomous driving is no company has control over their own destiny as autonomous driving has to take part in unison with the laws and regulations of areas. You also can't control what other people do on the road.

We all know the FSD Beta can easily get shut down before it even has a chance to flourish. The "lets keep trying" aspect that worked so well for SpaceX doesn't translate so well to the automotive industry.

SpaceX also has someone that Tesla doesn't have, and that person is Gwynne Shotwell who probably deserves more credit than she is given.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

So for me, no, not believing that he accidentally gives FSD related dates that are consistently not achievable. Not with his IQ and his track record at spacex.
My opinion is that He knows.. (for example) current cameras/hardware (not to mention any software within the next 4-5 years) can NOT do Robotaxi, NYC to LA with ZERO human input, Level 5 etc. He 100% KNOWS it.

He does it purposely to buy time.

That's the brilliance of the "we'll just do it in SW" approach.

It isn't just Elon Musk, but a lot of companies in Silicon Valley. The only difference is Musk took it to the extreme.

Now there is only so much time that can be bought, and we're almost at the end of that time. I can't see more than another year or so of available time to be bought before something fundamental has to change.

Either the goal has to change from autonomous to semiautonomous with a "oops, sorry about all that Robotaxi stuff" or HW has to start getting upgraded.

HW upgrades buy time as obviously there is room for the SW to grow into, but that comes a huge cost. The $3K I paid for FSD has already paid for the HW3 upgrade, and once the HW4 goes in then Tesla starts to lose money on it. The $5K I spent for EAP went to EAP efforts.

Of course this time is limited by how long vehicles are on the road.

AP2 cars are already 5 years in so I'm not sure it would make sense to upgrade them from HW3 (where they're at now) to HW4.

Luckily with the lease returns Tesla can simply delete FSD, and be done with it.

Customers like myself can complain about FSD, but at the end of the day its really Tesla that takes the brunt of the damage from selling the ridiculous.

 

[aronth5]

Nice to see confirmation of the updated maps. Now we just need someone with FSD to let everyone know how they affect driving.

 

[EVNow]

Nice to see confirmation of the updated maps. Now we just need someone with FSD to let everyone know how they affect driving.

View attachment 760291

Nothing on my car yet ...

ps : Well, "together with 2022.4" - so I guess we have to wait. Afterall since FSD Beta relies so much on maps, we get the map update last

They will probably send new map build with the next version of FSD Beta that is based on 2022.4 .... 10.10 next week ?

 

[2101Guy]

Did Elon have a serious face today when he said level 4 FSD this year and FSD safer than human this year?

Is he even REMOTELY aware (for example) of how superior humans are in fog, snow, heavy rain…(hell, even sunny day but going under an overpass with shade) today than FSD is?

One has to wonder if he lives in an alternate reality

 

[2101Guy]

“A lot of parking lots will be empty when robotaxi service begins”

 

[Knightshade]

“A lot of parking lots will be empty when robotaxi service begins”

Hey gotta give him bonus points for then pointing out it'll create a lot of traffic and maybe The Boring Company can fix that!

 

[boonedocks]

What do you mean by "current"?

FSD since March 2019 has been sold as an L2 driver assist system, explicitly, during purchase.

Which is exactly why it isn’t worth $12k.

 

[Daniel in SD]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1486745794619265028

Tesla is the most valuable auto company in the world by a large margin. I find it hard to believe that it's not because of FSD.

 

[EVNow]

Tesla is the most valuable auto company in the world by a large margin. I find it hard to believe that it's not because of FSD.

Thats because you are apparently not well versed with Tesla finances.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1486457777342066689

 

[Daniel in SD]

Thats because you are apparently not well versed with Tesla finances.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1486457777342066689

Apple could improve the gross margin on iPhones to 135% by doubling the price.

P.S. Just to make it clear I know the gross margin would actually go down a little because of economies of scale.

 

[EVNow]

Apple could improve the gross margin on iPhones to 135% by doubling the price.

But reduce their sales heavily - there by reducing margins too as they lose economies of scale

Some important points about analysts w.r.t FSD :
- Most people here don't think Tesla would achieve FSD. Why would analysts be any different.
- Analysts have seen Elon promise FSD year after year and fail.
- Analysts talk to a lot of "industry experts" and they would uniformly tell them Tesla won't be achieving FSD soon.
- Most analysts covering Tesla are Auto industry experts who don't understand much of anything outside traditional auto, anyway.
- Only ARK seems to believe Tesla will achieve FSD. Their long term price target on TSLA is much higher.
- You can see exactly what analysts base their estimates of Tesla future profitability on - they publish their breakup & calculations. I've never seen anything regarding robotaxis ever included.

 

[Daniel in SD]

But reduce their sales heavily - there by reducing margins too as they lose economies of scale

Some important points about analysts w.r.t FSD :
- Most people here don't think Tesla would achieve FSD. Why would analysts be any different.
- Analysts have seen Elon promise FSD year after year and fail.
- Analysts talk to a lot of "industry experts" and they would uniformly tell them Tesla won't be achieving FSD soon.
- Most analysts covering Tesla are Auto industry experts who don't understand much of anything outside traditional auto, anyway.
- Only ARK seems to believe Tesla will achieve FSD. Their long term price target on TSLA is much higher.
- You can see exactly what analysts base their estimates of Tesla future profitability on - they publish their breakup & calculations. I've never seen anything regarding robotaxis ever included.

I agree that many people don't think Tesla will achieve FSD though I wonder if the FSD true believers are the ones setting the stock price. Elon is saying that people don't know how valuable FSD will be which I definitely disagree with. People are investing billions of dollars into products with far less value than Tesla FSD (if it works).
I wonder if a company like GM also has some vehicles with a gross margin of 31%? Maybe they just have to stop selling all their lower margin vehicles in order to match Tesla?
My obvious point is that the gross margin is very impressive right now because they have so much demand. That's great of course but it doesn't mean that if they sell as many vehicles as GM they'll be able to maintain those gross margins.

 

[JulienW]

.... FSD true believers are the ones setting the stock price.....

Major investment institutions and trading software are the Blue Whales and set the stock price. We believers are smaller than Plankton and are just along for the ride.

 

[EVNow]

I agree that many people don't think Tesla will achieve FSD though I wonder if the FSD true believers are the ones setting the stock price.

No - its wall st that sets the price. People and funds that invest in billions.

I wonder if a company like GM also has some vehicles with a gross margin of 31%? Maybe they just have to stop selling all their lower margin vehicles in order to match Tesla?

Nobody else has the kind of operating leverage Tesla has (no ads, no sales commissions, no dealers etc). Even BMW / Porsche, who traditionally had the best margins are far below Tesla. Tesla volume is now similar to other luxury car makers (1M for Tesla, vs 2M for Merc/BMW, 300k for Porsche).

My obvious point is that the gross margin is very impressive right now because they have so much demand. That's great of course but it doesn't mean that if they sell as many vehicles as GM they'll be able to maintain those gross margins.

Difficult to say, but Tesla is a worldwide brand and GM is US only. I don't see a reason why Tesla can't maintain similar margin after it beats GM in volume, esp. as FSD will only get better and achieve better take rate.

 

[drtimhill]

The stubborn "lets keep trying" aspect of Elon really helped achieve reusable orbital rockets, and the ones who took the risk were investors in SpaceX. The challenge was well defined in terms of what the challenge was, and what success looked like. SpaceX to a large extent had control over their own destiny. Also just as important the Engineers that pulled it off were given freedom in choosing what would work best for the job. It's not like anyone is going to worry about a couple dollars for a rain sensor at SpaceX (exaggerated example, but obviously a rocket worth millions is something worth of good sensors).

All those things weren't in place for autonomous driving.

To start with the risk was put on the customers as it was the customer money.

The Engineers weren't given free reign on what to select for the job, and instead had to fit everything within the low cost that Elon wanted. Lots of Engineers working on it now came AFTER the HW was basically set in stone.

The biggest problem with autonomous driving is no company has control over their own destiny as autonomous driving has to take part in unison with the laws and regulations of areas. You also can't control what other people do on the road.

Not sure I agree with this assessment. First, who finances something is not germane, and in fact you could argue that Tesla is in a better position than SpaceX .. investors can put a lot of pressure on a company to deliver NOW OR ELSE!!, something FSD purchasers cannot really do (regardless of if you like it or not, I'm not debating the ethics/advisability of such a move).

Second, SpaceX was as economically constrained as Tesla .. the reusable aspects of the rocket is itself an economic position. SpaceX ultimately had a goal of reducing the cost of space launches, reusability was merely one of the strategies they used. Yes, this strategy gave them a distinct advantage over the competition .. a classic case of using technology to create an economic market advantage. Tesla is looking at FSD in a similar light.

Third, space launches are in fact more tightly regulated than anything Tesla faces (at the moment) with FSD. There are numerous government agencies involved before you can get even close to a launch pad (NASA, FAA, military, my Aunt Betty etc.). The strategy here, I am sure, is to present the various agencies with a fait accompli before they even figure out what regulations to put into place.

Elon has a history of attempting what everyone else says is impossible (or at least economically infeasible). Does he always succeed? Of course not! Is he an eternal optimist who under-estimates the dificulties/timelines? Duh! Of course he is! But, at the end of the day, he has delivered where others have either failed or not even bothered trying. I'd rather have a world with Elon (and others like him such as Steve Jobs) with all his faults, than one where no-one strives for "the impossible" and then actually makes it happen.

 

[Daniel in SD]

No - its wall st that sets the price. People and funds that invest in billions.

I guess I'm biased by my Twitter feed which seems to be filled with very enthusiastic retail investors because I look at Elon's tweets too often. I just assumed that TSLA has much higher than average ownership by "fans" of the company but I really have no idea. I guess I bought into the narrative that Wall St. is shorting TSLA but retail investors are buying the shares and keeping the price up.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

I guess I'm biased by my Twitter feed which seems to be filled with very enthusiastic retail investors because I look at Elon's tweets too often. I just assumed that TSLA has much higher than average ownership by "fans" of the company but I really have no idea. I guess I bought into the narrative that Wall St. is shorting TSLA but retail investors are buying the shares and keeping the price up.

I think its tough to say because they had things like autonomy day where they invited investors for an autonomous ride, but the ride was over a preselected and likely prescreened route.

Tesla has also been know to give preferential treatment to either investors or influential investors. So I don't question that FSD fantasies have influenced the stock market price regardless of who the investor is.

The FSD fantasies have also influenced buying decisions which play into the stock market price.

I routinely come across the argument that someone should buy or hold onto a Tesla because it will be capable of doing more in the future than it does today. The biggest argument has been autonomous driving.

That you'd be silly not to get a Tesla
That everything else will be obsolete.

How is a car manufacture who makes no future promises supposed to compete with that? To compete with the promise of full self driving, and an increased asset value.

People are emotional beings. We often make our decision before we justify them.

I'm one of the biggest FSD detractors on TMC, but even I bought FSD back in 2018.

I normally only have a car for a few years, but I have no intention of switching cars because my car has FSD.

Why do I keep a car with something I don't believe in?

The idea that I might be wrong is really what keeps me. Now sure it won't last forever, but its definitely kept me from looking at other vehicles. I do plan on getting a Rivian, but that will primarily replace my Jeep. It will replace both if the Tesla FSD doesn't do something of value to me by then.

For the most part I've seen FSD as marketing.

Sure it gets ridiculed a lot, but it gets people talking about Tesla.

 

[JulienW]

I guess I'm biased by my Twitter feed which seems to be filled with very enthusiastic retail investors because I look at Elon's tweets too often. I just assumed that TSLA has much higher than average ownership by "fans" of the company but I really have no idea. I guess I bought into the narrative that Wall St. is shorting TSLA but retail investors are buying the shares and keeping the price up.

In a nutshell we individuals are completely gamified by the system. When we put an order to buy a stock algorithms exam this and buy before our order is placed rising the price and then sell as we buy at the higher amount. They may only make a few ¢s per trade but we pay this and they make tremendous profits off manipulation of the market every second since they have near instant access to large scale trading and it is completely AI driven.

 

[ThomasD]

How much is the 12,000 dollar FSD worth at trade in time