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Elon: FSD Beta tweets

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Investors are smart. They know FSD isn't FSD anytime soon. Tesla gets high marks for being Apple like. They have products that people clamor for. Which other automakers have 6 months backlog on old product, and million unit backlog on to be released product? With two huge factories coming on line, the bottom line for Tesla looks bright.

FSD does bring excitement to the table as a driver assist tool. It brings clamor as no other company in the U.S. has this and no one else will for 2+ years.

We have already seen consolidation in the auto industry as Tesla expands, for example FCA merger with PSA. Suspect when both Giga Berlin and Giga Texas ramp up to full production towards end of next year, there will be more consolidation in the auto industry. I.E. companies near bankruptcy. Buy puts on Nissan.
Far off topic on the short comment but oh so true. As for me the list is long but no nation has let an Automaker fail since WWII (or thereabouts). So we have GM, FCA, Renault, Ford, VW, MB, bmw, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mazda, Mitsui, Suzuki, Hyundai/Kia, Rangchangeoverjagsomethingornother. Korea has basically 1, Germany 3, France/Italy share 1.

Not even discussing the wave of Chinese car companies that are emerging.

Be wary of shorting the auto makers now because as you see in the EV subsidy discussion today there are political issues that are going to make any particular stock a risky bet. Rather short something less directly impacted like Continental or Bosch or BorgWarner. Some like Aptiv will likely be ok, others not. Who makes spark plugs?
 
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Reactions: Terminator857
Far off topic on the short comment but oh so true. As for me the list is long but no nation has let an Automaker fail since WWII (or thereabouts). So we have GM, FCA, Renault, Ford, VW, MB, bmw, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mazda, Mitsui, Suzuki, Hyundai/Kia, Rangchangeoverjagsomethingornother. Korea has basically 1, Germany 3, France/Italy share 1.

Not even discussing the wave of Chinese car companies that are emerging.

Be wary of shorting the auto makers now because as you see in the EV subsidy discussion today there are political issues that are going to make any particular stock a risky bet. Rather short something less directly impacted like Continental or Bosch or BorgWarner. Some like Aptiv will likely be ok, others not. Who makes spark plugs?
NGK- if you can short a Japanese company effectively.
 
Lombard test is such a trivial test of what FSD needs to do. Try predicting human behavior in congested scenarios for a more interesting test. Or predicting a small ball rolling into the street might be followed by a little kid.
Right, and when it can't do the trivial test of Lombard... Just one of many canaries in the cage. Unprotected left turns will be harder to master I believe.
 
  • Funny
Reactions: Daniel in SD
Far off topic on the short comment but oh so true. As for me the list is long but no nation has let an Automaker fail since WWII (or thereabouts). So we have GM, FCA, Renault, Ford, VW, MB, bmw, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mazda, Mitsui, Suzuki, Hyundai/Kia, Rangchangeoverjagsomethingornother. Korea has basically 1, Germany 3, France/Italy share 1.

Not even discussing the wave of Chinese car companies that are emerging.

Be wary of shorting the auto makers now because as you see in the EV subsidy discussion today there are political issues that are going to make any particular stock a risky bet. Rather short something less directly impacted like Continental or Bosch or BorgWarner. Some like Aptiv will likely be ok, others not. Who makes spark plugs?
I guess you forgot AMC and Rambler.
 

Tesla must be getting better results with 10 in their tests and simulation. But the testers expected much better inroad experience based on tweets ...
It sounds like Musk is saying that the final solution is itself a local maximum, whenever that happens, which makes sense as I don't think one can prove that FSD Version VeryHighNumber.xyz will never kill someone, just high odds against it happening.
 
I think the progress feels frustratingly slow because of all the promises previously made. When I bought FSD around this time in 2019 (before price increased from $6000 to $7000) I figured they were at about the point they are right now: getting close to a public release of a usable level 2 system.

When you compare where the FSD beta is now to where it was on the very first public-ish releases in 2020, it's a big improvement. So they are definitely making progress.
 
Quote:
With 10.1, it will creep forward with more confidence & quickly reverse back a little (just as a person would) if it sees danger
They teach you not to do that in driving school...
Scenario:
  1. Car pulls forward for visibility.
  2. Pedestrian walks behind car.
  3. Car backs up.
  4. TMC posters call you an idiot for not reading the clear warning that the car can do the worst possible thing at the worst possible time.
It sounds super hard to monitor.
 
They teach you not to do that in driving school...
Scenario:
  1. Car pulls forward for visibility.
  2. Pedestrian walks behind car.
  3. Car backs up.
  4. TMC posters call you an idiot for not reading the clear warning that the car can do the worst possible thing at the worst possible time.
It sounds super hard to monitor.
Yes, this tweet from Elon doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Pulling out and backing up again is not a normal behavior, not something that a person would do unless they made a mistake or they have a highly obstructed view. To me, this reinforces my opinion that the present camera placements are insuffucient.

Of course it's still possible to have an obstructed view even if the cameras are right up at the front corners, but it's far, far less likely.

And by the way it's not just a pedestrian problem, it's quite common for drivers behind you to creep forward behind you when you creep forward. They're certainly not expecting you to back up, nor are they likely to make extra space for you to do that unless they're unusually perceptive, thoughtful and helpful. (Or they follow Elon on Twitter...)
 
They teach you not to do that in driving school...
Scenario:
  1. Car pulls forward for visibility.
  2. Pedestrian walks behind car.
  3. Car backs up.
  4. TMC posters call you an idiot for not reading the clear warning that the car can do the worst possible thing at the worst possible time.
It sounds super hard to monitor.
Agree, people should not do that. But a robot can see in multiple directions simultaneously, so hopefully robots can handle seeing if a car is too close or other obstruction behind. Although a better solution is adding more optimally placed cameras.
 
They teach you not to do that in driving school...
Scenario:
  1. Car pulls forward for visibility.
  2. Pedestrian walks behind car.
  3. Car backs up.
  4. TMC posters call you an idiot for not reading the clear warning that the car can do the worst possible thing at the worst possible time.
It sounds super hard to monitor.
In the left turn scenario what Musk writes makes perfect sense. Obviously the car should make sure there is nobody behind before reversing (like most humans do).