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Elon: FSD Beta tweets

tmoz

S85D, Prius PiP
Aug 16, 2015
1,005
597
Gilbert, Arizona
These betas are certainly revealing what works acceptably and what needs a lot of improvement.
If they can get unprotected left-hand turns working from a) a minor street onto a major street; and b) from a major street onto a minor street (much easier than case a), that will be a mighty big improvement, and quite amazing!
The other thing that has to get better from what I've seen is not screwing up a turn, for example: doing some wacky swing out for some unknown reason.
I'm sure there are other categories, but acing those items would be a really big deal in my opinion.
 
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Bladerskb

Senior Software Engineer
Oct 24, 2016
2,556
4,267
Michigan
and anyone whose been following this already knew that. its gonna end up being 8MP camera cause 1.2 mp isn't gonna cut it. Then they need to add 4 more cameras and air and water cleaning like Mobileye to even have a chance.
AshamedPoliticalHalcyon-size_restricted.gif
 

diplomat33

Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Aug 3, 2017
8,547
12,093
Terre Haute, IN USA
Interesting. So Tesla is going to pay, right now, for these upgrades? Because the Beta program is right now. This tweet might come back and bite him in the ass, unless I'm reading it wrong.

I read it as all the hardware upgrades needed to bring 2016-2017 Teslas up to HW3 in included in the FSD price. So everyone with a 2016-17 Tesla who paid for FSD will get the camera upgrades as well as the HW computer upgrade.
 

S4WRXTTCS

Well-Known Member
May 3, 2015
5,871
7,056
Snohomish, WA
He doesn't care - they are making $2B profit a quarter. At worst - these upgrades will be at zero margin.

Its really the precedence that it sets.

It means that if Tesla changes the HW in the future for FSD to actually work then they'll have to upgrade a LOT of vehicles where the upgrade won't be as straight forwards as popping off Sensor heads, and putting new ones on.

FSD won't just come back to bite Tesla in the ass as it already is, and will continue to do so long after Elon departs from Tesla.

Heck we'll have a Colony on Mars and people will still be talking about how dumb FSD is.
 
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EVNow

Well-Known Member
Sep 5, 2009
11,734
32,414
Seattle, WA
Its really the precedence that it sets.

It means that if Tesla changes the HW in the future for FSD to actually work then they'll have to upgrade a LOT of vehicles where the upgrade won't be as straight forwards as popping off Sensor heads, and putting new ones on.
Eventually, Tesla has to
- Return a portion of the FSD money they took OR
- Deliver FSD (whatever was promised at the time of sale)

There are three scenarios
1. Tesla can't get to FSD, they give up
2. Tesla gets to FSD but needs sensor changes to HW3
3. Tesla gets to FSD doesn't need sensor changes

1 - Will not happen on Elon's watch
2 - They will have to either upgrade sensors or return (portion) of the money. They will do whatever is cheaper.
3 - Profit !

ps : Elon has always thought of himself as a "fair" who does the "right" thing. I know he doesn't always live up to the ideal - but that is partly because of Tesla's financial circumstances. I expect Tesla / Elon to be more generous as Tesla's financial situation improves. I mean - if Tesla can actually get to FSD, cost needed to upgrade cars / entire FSD money still in deferred revenue (<$1.3B net of current after Q2) will be a tiny fraction of the money they can make of FSD.
 
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KArnold

Member
May 21, 2017
753
813
Columbus OH
Its really the precedence that it sets.
This!

It's guaranteed this scenario will repeat with *all* Tesla vehicles with HW4 (or HW 3.5, or HW 4.5, whatever they call it). It's one thing to service 10k's of cars - quite another to service 100k's of cars (or whatever the # is - you get the point). It's going to happen again and again. I plan on keeping my '17 MS for as long as possible with free SCing - taking the risk of course nothing major breaks, or I don't go home first. Battery still has 300+ mile range. In this day and age where computers/phones/electronics are obsolete every 18 months, our cars are not excluded.

I'd expect the HW4 upgrade, if offered for free to FSD buyers or subscription buyers, will take well over a year. Lord willing, I'll get camera upgrades in the next month or so. Frustrating of course, but mostly on the lack of comm's and mis-truths. Technically speaking, it's understandable. Would have been nice to know they never intended this configuration to work, let alone playing games with your customers - but technology is what it is. And personally, I am glad Tesla is not backing off the "all hardware you need for FSD" statement.

Heck, by that time, they may decide to put a much better radar back on all cars. Even if the new cars don't have the wiring, they certainly have the input jacks. Wouldn't surprise in the slightest to see this come down the road in a couple of years, maybe post-Elon. Maybe they can do HW4 and the radar at the same time?? :D
 

Mardak

Member
Oct 13, 2018
991
2,074
USA
the team is probably under a lot of pressure to quickly improve FSD Beta with a ton of issues they are probably now getting. I expect them to concentrate on this in the short term
Here's a couple examples of "ton of issues" from "normal" city streets that I needed to disengage FSD Beta 10.2:
shifted.jpg
curbs.jpg


Indeed they could improve perception by adding these specific examples of city streets to their training data, and I doubt I'm the only one encountering these types of issues. However, I have a hunch that parking lots have a higher likelihood of having these sudden lane shifts and odd curbs, so collecting and including that parking lot training data should improve a whole family of issues (while potentially introducing regressions).

If I was managing the Autopilot team, I would look for opportunities that address many problems at the same time while also making progress towards the end goal. However, yes sometimes progress can be faster if focusing on specific individual issues one by one.
 

tmoz

S85D, Prius PiP
Aug 16, 2015
1,005
597
Gilbert, Arizona
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diplomat33

Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Aug 3, 2017
8,547
12,093
Terre Haute, IN USA
And does Elon's "Yes" mean 99s from either yesterday or tomorrow?

I get the impression that the "yes" is just a reply to the first question of whether it will still go out to all 99s. Elon seemed to ignore the second part of the question. He was asked the second question again in a follow tweet and he has not replied to it yet.
 
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Mardak

Member
Oct 13, 2018
991
2,074
USA
I’m surprised this held up the release; it does not seem to have stopped them before. ;)
Yeah, I wonder if that specific left turn regression was actually introduced since 10.2 or they happened to notice it with 10.3. My very first disengagement was 10.2 wanted to go on a red left turn when straight was green, and this has happened at several traffic lights for me.
 
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AlanSubie4Life

Efficiency Obsessed Member
Oct 22, 2018
11,180
14,203
San Diego
True. But maybe the regression was really bad. And as Tesla adds more and more people, the risks go up.
Definitely risks are increasing. I find it pretty doubtful that their rate of improvement is balancing out the increase in the FSD Beta size. When they release to 100/99s (which I’m surprised they are doing so soon - I was wrong; I thought they would wait a few more weeks or longer for 99s), they’re likely releasing to several thousand people total, and probably more than doubling the size of the public release (I haven’t looked at TeslaFi data, multiplying by ~5 after accounting for 100s who slipped to 99 (etc.) to determine approximate size of the increase). Very unlikely safety has improved by a factor 2-3x to offset this.

Did you manage to get your score up to 99?
 
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