Elon: FSD Beta tweets

[S4WRXTTCS]

But wait, he's said before that it needs to be 100-200% safer than human. Now it needs to be 1000% safer than average human? Is Elon moving the goal posts?

Now I might be really premature about this, but I'm sensing a change from a salesmen approach to being way more realistic.

We knew something was off when instead of talking with superlatives with the 9.2 release he chose to give us release notes. Like actual release notes!!!

Then as you pointed out the goal post changed from from 200% to 1000% which is more reflective of the reality of the situation as it comes to self-driving cars.

I think what we're seeing is the result of something being a lot more real where the pretending is beginning to stop. They don't really need to pretend anymore as FSD is available as a subscription. It either does something useful or people don't buy it.

Another interpretation is that this is just another "look at what we have coming up" kind of thing where he's trying to build excitement over V10. Like even before this tweet I was beginning to not care about V9.X because it didn't bring everything together like V10 will. But, then with V10 he'll likely do the same thing again where V11 is where it's at. With that interpretation the safety move is a way to validate the need for V11 or beyond.

 

[diplomat33]

Now I might be really premature about this, but I'm sensing a change from a salesmen approach to being way more realistic.

We knew something was off when instead of talking with superlatives with the 9.2 release he chose to give us release notes. Like actual release notes!!!

Then as you pointed out the goal post changed from from 200% to 1000% which is more reflective of the reality of the situation as it comes to self-driving cars.

I think what we're seeing is the result of something being a lot more real where the pretending is beginning to stop. They don't really need to pretend anymore as FSD is available as a subscription. It either does something useful or people don't buy it.

Another interpretation is that this is just another "look at what we have coming up" kind of thing where he's trying to build excitement over V10. Like even before this tweet I was beginning to not care about V9.X because it didn't bring everything together like V10 will. But, then with V10 he'll likely do the same thing again where V11 is where it's at. With that interpretation the safety move is a way to validate the need for V11 or beyond.

Maybe I am giving Elon too much credit, but I do feel like we are seeing an evolution in Elon's thinking about FSD. Back in 2015, I don't think Elon understood the challenge of FSD. He thought it would be easy. That is why he said it was solved. But I think over time, as Elon watched the tremendous work that the AI/FSD Team has had to put into FSD, all the ML training required, the "4D rewrite", all the edge cases encountered, etc... he is starting to see how hard FSD really is and what is really required to actually make L5 work safely. And he is now realizing that just doing FSD is not enough, you need to achieve 1000% safer than human, and that's the real challenge. And I think Elon is trying to temper expectations with his fans who think FSD is ready because it is doing well in some short trips that they are doing. His tweet is basically "look, the videos with zero interventions are nice but you do realize we need to actually achieve 1000% safer than human, right?"

 

[gearchruncher]

"Elon is getting better" has been a common refrain around his estimates and realism for years now. Every time he says something even a bit sane, people go "see, he's getting better, we can trust him now."

I'll believe it when he goes 6 months without something crazy, not just 1 week. As it is now, we're just as likely to get a "9.4 is and will blow your mind" two weeks from now as we are "9.4 is a nice small step forward, progress continues"

Oh, and the 1000% safer? That's 10X, just described in a way that makes it look bigger than it is. 1:1B miles fatality. He's been using that as a target forever (it's a good target, last time he shared it it was "99.9999999% of miles") but it's not new at all, and doesn't represent that he suddenly realizes being that good is hard. He's already claimed AP is "superhuman" multiple times, has "ESP" (just a few weeks ago), and the "march of nines" has been a thing since 2019. He's particularly disingenuous or disconnected in that he still claims current AP is >1:100M on the highway, but doesn't recognize that it's a worthless statistic as it requires an attentive human to achieve that.

I'm all for a new Elon/Tesla around their autonomy messaging, but I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[diplomat33]

"Elon is getting better" has been a common refrain around his estimates and realism for years now. Every time he says something even a bit sane, people go "see, he's getting better, we can trust him now."

Just because Elon might be getting better in his estimates and realism, does not automatically mean that we trust him now in everything he says.

 

[dramsey]

Just because Elon might be getting better in his estimates and realism, does not automatically mean that we trust him now in everything he says.

Is there any evidence he's getting better, though? If so, I haven't seen it.

 

[diplomat33]

Is there any evidence he's getting better, though? If so, I haven't seen it.

We are talking about some of his recent tweets where he admits that FSD Beta V9.2 is "not great", talks about how there is a lot of work still left to do, how FSD has to be 1000% safer than human. Those tweets would seem to suggest that he is becoming more realistic about FSD. It is certainly a different tone from the previous tweets where he would hype FSD as "amazing", "mind-blowing", "L5 by the end of this year" etc...

 

[BrerBear]

Is there any evidence he's getting better, though? If so, I haven't seen it.

The day he offers FSD buyers a refund is the day I’ll believe he’s getting better.

 

[Ptheven]

We are talking about some of his recent tweets where he admits that FSD Beta V9.2 is "not great", talks about how there is a lot of work still left to do, how FSD has to be 1000% safer than human. Those tweets would seem to suggest that he is becoming more realistic about FSD. It is certainly a different tone from the previous tweets where he would hype FSD as "amazing", "mind-blowing", "L5 by the end of this year" etc...

I don't think this is a zebra getting rid of his stripes. I think this is leatherface putting on a new victim's face for a while.

 

[Tez~La]

Reality hits him in the face. This mind blowing FSD is really just a dud and the button thats coming in 10 days is no longer talked about. Snake Oil salesman is sold out. What a shame, I was hoping it would of been this year but I think FSD improvements have plateaued and those that have been waiting for so long have a valid complaint after all of his hype.

 

[rxlawdude]

The day he offers FSD buyers a refund is the day I’ll believe he’s getting better.

With the proviso that anyone who received the FSD refund will pay a 50% surcharge on top of FSD then-current costs to reinstate it when it works well enough.

Don't believe in FSD? Get a refund and stand your ground by never buying it when it's ready. Or, be required to pay a penalty later.

 

[gearchruncher]

With the proviso that anyone who received the FSD refund will pay a 50% surcharge on top of FSD then-current costs to reinstate it when it works well enough.

Don't believe in FSD? Get a refund and stand your ground by never buying it when it's ready. Or, be required to pay a penalty later.

Why? Just to be a jerk?

We're talking about people that bought FSD on a car 4 years ago, and might be going to sell it, and are seeing the market adding almost no value to it. You're saying if these people want a refund they don't believe in FSD and should be punished more than someone that isn't even a Tesla customer today if FSD does become active in 5 years? Given FSD isn't transferable, it seems pretty obvious why someone would want a refund- they may be just going to purchase a newer Tesla.

Your whole argument shows the issue with "FSD"- it's not a product, its faith in a future product, and like many religions, you want to punish people for not having faith. This is not how normal consumer relationships work.

 

[rxlawdude]

Why? Just to be a jerk?

We're talking about people that bought FSD on a car 4 years ago, and might be going to sell it, and are seeing the market adding almost no value to it. You're saying if these people want a refund they don't believe in FSD and should be punished more than someone that isn't even a Tesla customer today if FSD does become active in 5 years? Given FSD isn't transferable, it seems pretty obvious why someone would want a refund- they may be just going to purchase a newer Tesla.

Your whole argument shows the issue with "FSD"- it's not a product, its faith in a future product, and like many religions, you want to punish people for not having faith. This is not how normal consumer relationships work.

I'm saying there has to be some penalty - someone could buy FSD, "return it" with no cost, and then buy it again and rinse and repeat. Yes, there are inconsiderate morons that do this kind of stuff.

Perhaps Tesla's pricing as FSD matures will take care of that penalty so if you "return" it, you pay the then-current price, after a six month "time out."

Those who bought years ago (me included) that are disposing of the vehicle should get something back, but they would de facto not be covered with the penalty "time out" if they traded in for a Tesla.

Or, make FSD transferrable upon purchase of a new Tesla.

 

[DarkandStormy]

We are talking about some of his recent tweets where he admits that FSD Beta V9.2 is "not great", talks about how there is a lot of work still left to do, how FSD has to be 1000% safer than human. Those tweets would seem to suggest that he is becoming more realistic about FSD. It is certainly a different tone from the previous tweets where he would hype FSD as "amazing", "mind-blowing", "L5 by the end of this year" etc...

Why all this hubbub over a problem that was solved several years ago?

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

Reality hits him in the face. This mind blowing FSD is really just a dud and the button thats coming in 10 days is no longer talked about. Snake Oil salesman is sold out. What a shame, I was hoping it would of been this year but I think FSD improvements have plateaued and those that have been waiting for so long have a valid complaint after all of his hype.

The biggest problem I see with Elon is he isn't careful with what he tweets. The button was never seriously coming in 10 days, and lots of us speculated that he didn't clearly think that one through.

Why isn't he careful? Most of what he sells doesn't exist so he's primed at selling what could be.

He had to sell the world on Tesla EV's before they were viable.
He had to sell the reusable rockets before they worked.
He had to sell people on the idea of tunnels despite constant rejection of the idea.

As a result of being a "if we build it, they will come" kind of person he ends up with a long history of tweeting non-sense. Like in 2017 he talked about solar powered superchargers, and being able to disconnect them from the grid. But, where's the math on that one? The numbers as to what a solar powered canopy supercharger can generate is orders of magnitudes less than the demand.

Usually I just shrug with a look of why? Why promise?

The lack of care in what he tweets has people cynical about things well beyond reason. Like you said "I think FSD improvements have plateaued", but I see no evidence of that. Instead what I see is a lot of work is left to be done before FSD with HW3 starts to hit the limit of the HW.

It feels like its years late, but its not years late at all. It's simply the reality of the typical development time. In fact if I was to guess this is probably one of the most exciting times engineering wise inside Tesla.

It's the first time things are actually coming together. Everything has be waiting on backbone type functionality to be implemented before things will work correctly. Things like Smart Summon, Autopark, NoA, etc.

Now this doesn't mean it will get released anytime soon.
This doesn't mean that it will go beyond L2 at anytime (with HW3)
This doesn't mean it will even work well in all places.
This won't even completely fix phantom braking.

What it does mean though is things will hopefully be a lot less crappy for any HW3 FSD vehicle, and likely will improve things for AP only HW3 vehicles.

 

[momo3605]

I'm saying there has to be some penalty - someone could buy FSD, "return it" with no cost, and then buy it again and rinse and repeat. Yes, there are inconsiderate morons that do this kind of stuff.

Perhaps Tesla's pricing as FSD matures will take care of that penalty so if you "return" it, you pay the then-current price, after a six month "time out."

Those who bought years ago (me included) that are disposing of the vehicle should get something back, but they would de facto not be covered with the penalty "time out" if they traded in for a Tesla.

Or, make FSD transferrable upon purchase of a new Tesla.

There already is a penalty...Elon said FSD price will be $200k when it's functional . But in all seriousness, if the price goes up to $15k when FSD Beta is released to all FSD owners, then that's a 50% penalty, refund at $10k, and buy at $15k when FSD is more tangible. There doesn't need to be an additional penalty, that would be just dumb.

 

[Cyberax]

With the proviso that anyone who received the FSD refund will pay a 50% surcharge on top of FSD then-current costs to reinstate it when it works well enough.

This will likely be illegal in a contract of adhesion.

 

[rxlawdude]

This will likely be illegal in a contract of adhesion.

Contracts of adhesion are not per se illegal. Ever buy cell phone service?

But I'd agree that a general and significant price increase when major steps in functionality occur will be a sufficient deterrent. Do nothing and wait (with your $10K in the hands of Tesla), or get $10K now, with the risk of paying $20K for the same product that was purchased in the past for $10K and refunded.

Fair?

TBH, I don't think Tesla would refund the full $10K for FSD purchasers, but could refund a prorata amount based on "promised" vs current functionality. Or in the alternative, allow simply transfer the FSD license to any Tesla vehicle in the future.

I'm still waiting for someone to successfully sue in Small Claims Court for "fraud."

 

[diplomat33]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1430657502966910985

 

[momo3605]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1430657502966910985

How does this guy not learn from giving BS estimates 99.9% of the time.
This sounds eerily similar to “no point releasing V8.3 when V9 is around the corner and going to blow your mind” …amd then have months of technical difficulties getting the major changes out

 

[nativewolf]

How does this guy not learn from giving BS estimates 99.9% of the time.
This sounds eerily similar to “no point releasing V8.3 when V9 is around the corner and going to blow your mind” …amd then have months of technical difficulties getting the major changes out

Good thing he's not running tesla or spacex or a couple of other really cool startups. Gesh, he's a failure....or wait for it.....wait...