Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Elon: FSD Beta tweets

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
The simulator is accurate for your individual daily score. The total average score is just a mileage weighted average of each day. You can’t use the simulator to verify the total score

I should clarify. I am not using the Tesla Safety Score Simulator. I am using this online safety score calculator:

Safety Score Calculator

I am guessing it is not super accurate in predicting how many miles you need to get to a certain score.
 
Looks like he still believes NN will suddenly get very good and become "super human" soon after coming to Human level. Like it happens with various games.

The progress from 10.2 to 10.3 is promising. Elon is trigger happy with "superhuman" though. He thinks production NoA is superhuman, which I guess is true with the help of a human.
 
Anytime Elon Tweets "superhuman" just replace the word with... "tolerable".
Yep.
The entirety of Musk forecast comes from extrapolation. That's why he is so inaccurate when it comes to FSD - but not that bad with things like production volumes.
I'd like to see the function that extrapolates from where FSD Beta was a year ago to where it is now to superhuman.
Everyone else trying to make driverless vehicles has found that each "9" is much more difficult than the last.
 
I'd like to see the function that extrapolates from where FSD Beta was a year ago to where it is now to superhuman.
Everyone else trying to make driverless vehicles has found that each "9" is much more difficult than the last.

Well, to have a function, we would need data. That is one reason why I wish Tesla would release detailed disengagement data for each FSD Beta version. That way we would have some quantitative data to measure progress instead of just subjective "it's superhuman" tweets.
 
Everyone else trying to make driverless vehicles has found that each "9" is much more difficult than the last.
Right. Musk, though, thinks they have the advantage of big data here.

But the basic idea is what they have figured out training CNN to crack other problems. It takes a long time to get to average human level performance but after that soon AI is much better than best humans. This is what Musk bases all his "superhuman" and other beliefs on.

Only time will tell who is right, since nobody has achieved that "average human level" yet, with driving.