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Elon: FSD Beta tweets

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I don't know - leaving out "Probably" looks pretty weird to me.

Someone quotes you later on - if they don't send out 10.4 on Friday - saying Elon missed one more "promise".
1. Perhaps the "someone" would then be guilty of "demolish" since they are selectively quoting.
2. I didn't say Friday, I said weekend, so Elon got extra days of slack from me.
3. There were no promises. "On track" means looking good so far. Hopefully everyone knows how quickly can can get off track.
 
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No reason to be defensive. Alan is just pointing out the obvious.

Did Elon mention 10.4 would have improved object permanence?
I'm not being defensive, just giving credit where it's due.

As for the second part, he kind of led to it. But it's ambiguous. My understanding is that it's coming on 10.4. Since he didn't say when and this was following 10.4, that's my interpretation. Anyone could be wrong. Or - everyone. It doesn't change my main point, he's been very consistent with the release cycle on FSD Beta. A minimal and usual time variance, only.
 
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I'm wondering about pothole feature. From 2019:
A couple of streets in our gated community have the dreaded speed humps and Beta-equipped car consistently slows to a very appropriate 10 mph each time. (Our non-beta equipped Tesla doesn’t slow down.) But what really impressed me is that there is a sudden depression in the street near our home significant enough that we always slow down a bit (there is no signage warning about it.) The FSD beta slows for this depression. Very impressive stuff. Of course swerving for a pothole is a different move from merely slowing. Fortunately, we almost never encounter potholes in our Phoenix area roadways so I have no idea how they would be handled.
 
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It doesn't change my main point, he's been very consistent with the release cycle on FSD Beta.
I agree that the cadence of releases and follow through on Elon's tweets since The Second Coming of The Button has been quite satisfactory, even if it did lead to an NHTSA recall.

I definitely do not think that Elon was suggesting object permanence is coming in 10.4. I think he would have said specifically if that were the case. I expect 10.4 to be similar to 10.3.1 - so: basically exactly the same as 10.2 in terms of performance in most situations, perhaps with some small feature adds.

Object permanence would be a huge advancement. If they can construct a solid unchanging model of the environment (except for the things that are changing, of course), I think that has the potential to lead to much more consistent & smooth driving behavior.

Complicated problem though. These are very difficult problems that Tesla and others are trying to solve. In the end, even that solid model will have confidence levels included in it. Figuring out how to confirm information and incorporate it into the model without changing the model too quickly seems like the tricky part. And you can really never ever accidentally perceive obstacles. For example, if the model solidly latches on to the idea that a shadow is an obstacle, that will most definitely not result in more smooth driving behavior! (This perception issue appears to happen now, but perhaps because the model does not have much permanence, the reaction is quickly muted.)

It's crazy stuff ("beyond wild," even?) and this simplistic thinking about it probably does not even come close to properly describing the tradeoffs they have to make.
 
Swerve the car to avoid potholes? Sounds like a long term goal considering we can't even get the car to stop using FSD without borderline locking up the brakes :D

This is where I wish the entire steering input was different.

Where instead of an abrupt take over you could nudge it to avoid expected obstacles like man hole covers that aren't smooth or known pot holes.

But, there is no nudging it. It's just toque until it exceeds a threshold and then it turns half off.

I also wish it could start to adapt to my route. After the 10th time of ignoring its suggestion on how to get to my work it should assume I want the route I always take.
 
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Give the man a break, he's been very consistent with FSD releases since the button. There were delays, but they were announced and honored to the T. 10.3 was on time, despite it's issue. Great turnaround time for 10.3.1 on that event. I decided to trust him now on FSD Beta timelines.
But do we really know what changed other than a number with those updates?

I’ve gotten two updates under the beta and the seem to be sidewise to downward sloping.
well it was gonna plow right through a flock of geese on the way home today… I mean, I know everyone has thought about doing it, but you’d have to be a psychopath to do it. Are Tesla’s programmed to be be psychopaths?
 
I also wish it could start to adapt to my route. After the 10th time of ignoring its suggestion on how to get to my work it should assume I want the route I always take.

Individual cars don't learn individually.

Troubleshooting anything would be a nightmare if they did (apart from the cars lack the power to train NNs onboard by orders of magnitude)


That said, the general GPS functions do lack a lot of broad settings many offer (prefer highways vs prefer surface streets for example) but that's unrelated to FSD.
 
My partner is scared enough with me driving. The public build they think it worse compared to me. The FSB beta just scared the hell out of them.
Same. She hates the FSD phantom braking and regular braking (the smash the brakes, then let go, roll up closer, then smash the brakes again), says it starts to make her nauseous after a while. I don't feel the nausea but it's a bit embarrassing because I always talk about how genius the FSD system is, but then can't justify why it can't brake normally behind a stationary car at a red light.