Elon: FSD Beta tweets

[planetary]

You got the idea wrong. “Is there a compiled version of Elon tweets on FSD that shows him only in a positive light compared to the above one which only portrays him in negatively ?”

If you limit it to tweets with a prediction window of a few hours (e.g. "version X is coming out tonight!") I think he's likely to be a bit more accurate.

 

[EVNow]

If you limit it to tweets with a prediction window of a few hours (e.g. "version X is coming out tonight!") I think he's likely to be a bit more accurate.

There are several others where he says things like “this X thing is so difficult - I never thought it would be so difficult”, which give perfect explanation for his earlier optimistic timelines. But haters don’t include those because they want to prove some kind of conspiracy theory about Tesla and Elon being frauds. That worked so well for TSLAQ

 

[planetary]

There are several others where he says things like “this X thing is so difficult - I never thought it would be so difficult”, which give perfect explanation for his earlier optimistic timelines. But haters don’t include those because they want to prove some kind of conspiracy theory about Tesla and Elon being frauds. That worked so well for TSLAQ

Don't know about all those conspiracy theories, but you would think that someone who has been down this road a number of times would learn from his predictive failures and stop doing it. And it's not just the hard stuff (like FSD), it's everything -- including software releases, basic feature updates, and even how he runs the company with their absolutely insane EDD predictions (i.e. "the chaos monkey").

Are there other things he's predicted well, or which show him in a more favorable light? Absolutely. Lots of them. However, customers don't remember the times which commitments are met; they remember the failures to deliver.

I'm not a TSLA shareholder, but I'm a repeat customer. I love my new Model S, and hope to get into the FSD beta soon.

 

[Terminator857]

... stop doing it. ...

I'm o.k. with late. But taking people's money and not offering a refund or other compensation for not delivering is very wrong in my mind. Just do something simple like offering FSD transfer and he will make happy campers out of almost everyone.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

There are several others where he says things like “this X thing is so difficult - I never thought it would be so difficult”, which give perfect explanation for his earlier optimistic timelines. But haters don’t include those because they want to prove some kind of conspiracy theory about Tesla and Elon being frauds. That worked so well for TSLAQ

That's just him admitting that he doesn't have a clue. You don't need to include those in a timeline of him saying things that show he doesn't have a clue.

Of course, I'm being generous. To be ungenerous would say that he has a clue, but he's lying to generate sales.

 

[nvx1977]

That's just him admitting that he doesn't have a clue. You don't need to include those in a timeline of him saying things that show he doesn't have a clue.

Of course, I'm being generous. To be ungenerous would say that he has a clue, but he's lying to generate sales.

For those people who aren't happy with what they got for whatever they paid for FSD, that sucks. I can't blame people for taking elon's predictions seriously and expecting a much more competent AI at this point.

But I do draw the line at accusing Musk of fraudulent behavior. Despite the over-optimism, I see the company working as hard as it can to solve the problem. They are unrelentless, and they won't quit. Yes that means there could be lots more local maximums they hit that require a fundamental rewrite of this and that, but it is still forward progress.

The current language for the FSD add on is no longer written over-optimistically and is much less likely to mislead a prospective buyer.

Recently, Musk ventured yet another prediction on Lex Fridman's podcast that FSD L4 is a year away. Personally given his track record, I think he should have just evaded that question. But what was interesting was that he admitted that he came to that conclusion based on the rate of decline of interventions from the beta testers.

This is interesting to me because we don't get feedback whether our interventions even matter. At some level, they do. And while I don't intuitively feel like I disengage less with 10.8 than 10.2, the data as a whole doesn't lie, and and there's probably a nice logarithmic curve starting to form from the last few months. I know that even this data is fallible, esp. if they hit a local maximum. But it is always good to get some confirmation that progress is being made.

 

[qdeathstar]

Did Google pocketed $10k from customers?

Neither did Tesla.

 

[Matias]

Same year Google exec claimed FSD would solved by now and robotaxis would be everywhere so kids won’t need to take driving exams.

Did google exec sell those robotaxis to customers?

 

[qdeathstar]

Did google exec sell those robotaxis to customers?

Neither did Elon…

 

[EVNow]

Did google exec sell those robotaxis to customers?

Nobody has sold robotaxis. If someone did, I’d like to see the invoice.

 

[Daniellane]

Nobody has sold robotaxis. If someone did, I’d like to see the invoice.

Bought this on eBay

CAUTION: STUDENT ROBOTAXI bumper MAGNET sticker/decal for Tesla Autopilot FSD | eBay

Be the first to get this funny new take on the Autopilot warning stickers.

www.ebay.com

 

[2101Guy]

If it STILL cant properly detect something as simple as curbs..not sure WHEN we will see the "from NYC to LA with no intervention" promise happen..

Tesla Full Self Driving Beta Gone Wrong: 2 Wheels Destroyed

The Internet is full of new videos and reports about every new version of Tesla's Full Self Driving feature. But don't forget it's just beta.

insideevs.com

 

[Daniel in SD]

If it STILL cant properly detect something as simple as curbs..not sure WHEN we will see the "from NYC to LA with no intervention" promise happen..

Tesla Full Self Driving Beta Gone Wrong: 2 Wheels Destroyed

The Internet is full of new videos and reports about every new version of Tesla's Full Self Driving feature. But don't forget it's just beta.

insideevs.com

Cybertruck fixes this problem.

 

[Goose66]

There are several others where he says things like “this X thing is so difficult - I never thought it would be so difficult”, which give perfect explanation for his earlier optimistic timelines. But haters don’t include those because they want to prove some kind of conspiracy theory about Tesla and Elon being frauds.

But the same Elon sycophants that are using those "I didn't know it would be so hard" statements now to justify the numerous, repeated missed timelines and overly optimistic predictions, were using those very overly optimistic predictions and promises made back then to show how Elon was smarter than everybody else and was the only one who knew how things would unfold. See the hypocrisy in that position? When Elon said in late 2015, with quite a bit of confidence, mind you, that he considers full-self driving as "already solved" and level-5 FSD would be available in his cars by 2018, plenty of AI and autonomous experts said he was delusional, but they were all poo-pooed by Elon fans that said they were all idiots and how dare they challenge Elon. It's a bit disingenuous to go back now and say "At least Elon admits he was wrong, so he's still the only one that is right." Not to mention, when Elon makes additional predictions like he did last week that FSD will be "solved" by the "end of next year" (a prediction being made by my count for the 4th time), these same Elon sycophants say "see, there you go, done by next year - and all naysayers said it would never happen." (moderator edit) IT MAY NEVER HAPPEN.

 

[impastu]

But the same Elon sycophants that are using those "I didn't know it would be so hard" statements now to justify the numerous, repeated missed timelines and overly optimistic predictions, were using those very overly optimistic predictions and promises made back then to show how Elon was smarter than everybody else and was the only one who knew how things would unfold. You don't see the hypocrisy in that position? When Elon said in late 2015, with quite a bit of confidence, mind you, that he consider full-self driving as "already solved" and level-5 FSD would be available in his cars by 2018, plenty of AI and autonomous experts said he was delusional, but they were all poo-pooed by Elon fans such as yourself that said they were all idiots and how dare they challenge Elon. It's a bit disingenuous to go back now and say "At least Elon admits he was wrong, so he's still the only one that is right." Not to mention, when Elon makes additional predictions like he did last week that FSD will be "solved" by the "end of next year" (a prediction being made by my count for the 4th time), these same Elon sycophants say "see, there you go, done by next year - and all you naysayers said it would never happen." When are you going to come around and at least acknowledge the distinct possibility that IT MAY NEVER HAPPEN.

Ok, it may never happen. Also, SpaceX also may never land on Mars. Humans may never be an interplanetary species. Are you happier now? Enjoy your day.

 

[EVNow]

I wonder how many gullible still trust this joker on FSD claims.

Apparently less than those whose trusted Cruise CEO before he was fired.

 

[EVNow]

Did Google pocketed $10k from customers?

Apparently a lot more - by selling all our private data.

That is how Waymo is funded.

 

[Wnuk]

 

[EVNow]

View attachment 750126

Here with context.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1476656306610216960

 

[daktari]

For those people who aren't happy with what they got for whatever they paid for FSD, that sucks. I can't blame people for taking elon's predictions seriously and expecting a much more competent AI at this point.

But I do draw the line at accusing Musk of fraudulent behavior. Despite the over-optimism, I see the company working as hard as it can to solve the problem. They are unrelentless, and they won't quit. Yes that means there could be lots more local maximums they hit that require a fundamental rewrite of this and that, but it is still forward progress.

The current language for the FSD add on is no longer written over-optimistically and is much less likely to mislead a prospective buyer.

Recently, Musk ventured yet another prediction on Lex Fridman's podcast that FSD L4 is a year away. Personally given his track record, I think he should have just evaded that question. But what was interesting was that he admitted that he came to that conclusion based on the rate of decline of interventions from the beta testers.

This is interesting to me because we don't get feedback whether our interventions even matter. At some level, they do. And while I don't intuitively feel like I disengage less with 10.8 than 10.2, the data as a whole doesn't lie, and and there's probably a nice logarithmic curve starting to form from the last few months. I know that even this data is fallible, esp. if they hit a local maximum. But it is always good to get some confirmation that progress is being made.

Why don't Tesla publish these numbers? Why don't shareholders demand it?We can see from the videos that testers go a few 100 meters (downtown busy city) to a few miles in favorable low traffic scenarios.