When Elon Musk says "probably summer", he actually means not summer, so September 21st or later.
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Elon: FSD Beta tweets
- Thread starter Terminator857
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mtndrew1
Active Member
You must be new here.
Only if you assume summer of this year.
Right? Lol I think you can safely assume 100% chance of this coming AFTER summer
He didn’t specify which hemisphere either so it could mean just about any time.
Or what year
In his defense, he is from South Africa, which is in southern hemisphere
EVNow
Well-Known Member
When Elon Musk says "probably summer" - it just means not anytime soon.
He said THIS summer... but we didn't see which calendar he was pointing at when he said it.
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Daniel in SD
(supervised)
sleepydoc
Well-Known Member
been through this ad nauseam on another thread. The NHTSA data does not have enough detail to accurately assess the question one way or another.
I do believe that article/that Tesla AP/FSD drivers are less likely to crash.
I mean, when (based solely on posts from persons on this forum who support FSD) it goes through red lights, makes turns from the wrong lane, collides with curbs on right hand turns? It makes sense that the drivers have to/are paying more attention.
AP can't do any of those things, and the vast majority of the fleet only has AP (based on FSD take rate estimates)
FSD can't do most of those, and its extremely unlikely that it will run a red light considering it stops for all lights (without a lead car)
FSD Beta can do those things, but you have be part of the program along with actually using it to successfully use it to crash.
Over time I believe AP accidents will decrease (per mile average) as driver monitoring is enhanced, and comparisons to other L2 vehicles become clearer.
Over time I believe FSD Beta accidents will increase to a point where it can't progress any further, and limits are put on it. The NHTSA already has their hands hovering over the STOP button while they watch the log data flow in. They know there are limits to how far L2 can be taken before the human simply isn't engaged enough to take over quickly or where the situations unfolds too quickly for the human to prevent an accident. The technology itself has to be good enough on its own before being put into consumer hands.
I find this to be very interesting. I can see a re-definition of SAE levels if NHTSA does find that humans cannot handle L2 or L3 properly. It would mean that L2 and L3 aren't possible and the scale will go from L1 straight to L4 and L5.
There would be no reason to redefine SAE levels just because Tesla can’t do FSD Beta successfully in those tiers.
While L2 and L3 may not be impractical for AVs, they’re well-defined for limited scope systems. L2 highway assist features are available on many cars, and L3 seems to be coming first to traffic jam scenarios.
jabloomf1230
Minister of Silly Walks
If that happens it won't be a decision based on safety. It will be political statement. If serious accident rates using FSD beta remain substantially below the national average, it makes no sense to limit it, unless an elected official is hustling for votes.
This could explain all of Elon's recent political tweets. He's taken a page out of Kyrsten Sinema's playbook: If you like me, then I like you. In Elon's position, it pays to be mysterious because it allows future flexibility.
I think that Elon understands that Biden has to be pro union and Biden understands that Tesla's employees don't want a union. It's no different than the situation with Toyota, Honda and all the rest of the US non-union automotive shops.
jabloomf1230
Minister of Silly Walks
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