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Elon: FSD Beta tweets
- Thread starter Terminator857
- Start date
DanCar
Active Member
Should we start a poll? Is FSD less than half baked, half baked, 3/4 baked, or 99.9% baked?
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
I think it depends on how you define FSD. If we are talking about a L2 door to door system, I would say it is probably 75% baked. If we are talking about a driverless robotaxi, it is around 25% baked IMO.
DanCar
Active Member
8 years working on and 25% baked. Should be done with another 3*8=24 years of baking. Done in 2022+24 = 2044. A good year for driverless vehicles. Who ever said next decade is too optimistic.
mtndrew1
Active Member
I am approaching the point where I bought the car, paid for the car, drove the car 100,000 miles, and sold the car, without ever having received the features sold to me at step 1.How many times will the average Tesla owner re-pay for FSD on their new cars by then
I bought FSD as a novelty knowing that Elon often believes his own BS. Had I actually bought into the first video I saw in late 2016 implying this thing was right around the corner I’d be cranky.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Based on the famous pictures I have seen, Elon is more baked than FSD.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
Feeling very confident about my >90% wager.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
It’s going WHILE THERE IS TRAFFIC ON THE OTHER SIDE. What witchcraft is this?Feeling very confident about my >90% wager.
I am feeling very confident. The criteria we established are very strict…and if they are still “testing” it…
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
It’s going WHILE THERE IS TRAFFIC ON THE OTHER SIDE. What witchcraft is this?
I am feeling very confident. The criteria we established are very strict…and if they are still “testing” it…
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
Newton's first law of motion. Easy to get > 90% success with that one simple trick.It’s going WHILE THERE IS TRAFFIC ON THE OTHER SIDE. What witchcraft is this?
I am feeling very confident. The criteria we established are very strict…and if they are still “testing” it…
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
I’m confident they will not properly clear the lanes, and require a little accelerator encouragement (which I trust Chazman will faithfully document), resulting in a failure. Or without accelerator input, people will slow down due to unnatural behavior, which is also a failure.
It really does take a skilled maneuver to occupy that center reservation in line with the direction of travel, rather than perpendicular. I would be impressed. It sort of will do it now, but it requires a much longer runout to align itself to the new direction of travel.
Ruh-roh:
Of course, if Chuck does it with no traffic, you might win due to that silly stipulation I agreed to. But it would be a Pyrrhic victory.
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jabloomf1230
Minister of Silly Walks
Chuck now finds himself in an dodgy position because of all the publicity. The good news is he has been suggesting stopping in the median for some time now and that may be Tesla's "solution". The bad news is that if 10.13 fails the ULT of Doom, it's not going to be good look for Elon.
Eh, maybe Elon will just go "10.14 in two weeks" .
Eh, maybe Elon will just go "10.14 in two weeks" .
but but but i thought the whole point of "billions of miles of data" and "game set match" is that you don't have to send an employee to do testing.Feeling very confident about my >90% wager.
Dude, that went out of favor years ago.
The question now is how well it will do chucks unprotected left.
All the FSD Beta marketing comes down to this moment.
Either place your bet or get out.
I placed my $100 bet on it not being able to accomplish it more than 95% of the time.
mtndrew1
Active Member
Hell, mine can’t drive three miles in a straight line with no turns down well-marked Figueroa in Los Angeles without about five disengagements.
I’ve been doing this route many times a week and reporting each error for about nine months.
A million robotaxis any day now.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
This will prove to the haters (like you) that if Tesla uses geofencing they can achieve greater than human performance.
They're probably going to raise the price after 10.13 proves that the left turn can be mastered.
"Yes. We will increase the price of FSD sometime later this year. I think probably just before we go to wide beta, wide beta is anyone who wants to use the beta software with all the caveats associated with that can use it. Then it would make sense to increase the price of FSD. The value of FSD is, I think extremely high and not well understood by most people [he's talking about you]. It is basically currently ridiculously cheap, assuming FSD materializes, which it will."
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Your expectations are ridiculously high…I’m sorry for the inevitable disappointment you will face when 10.13 turns out to be an incremental improvement with an equal number of regressions like every 10.x build so far
I traded my Model 3 Performance with FSD beta in on a Rivian R1T so 10.13 will be the the first version in a long long of versions that I'll have no first hand account of.
I rarely used FSD beta because I simply wasn't the right kind of person to do so.
I stopped reporting issues because they never responded to any questions or concerns. There was never the satisfaction of reporting a problem, and seeing the problem get fixed. Even a maps only fixes would have allowed me to use it more especially if it would stop it from putting on the turn signals in a corner.
I also rarely had the opportunity to use it because there is almost always someone behind me or someone I have to watch out for when it takes a corner. It was just too stressful to bother with.
When I debated about which vehicle to trade in for the Rivian the AP/FSD stuff didn't factor in. There just wasn't a feeling that it was really going anywhere. I'm sure it will get better as the months drag on, but it was never going to be what I wanted it to be. I wanted something that would make sure I was in the correct lane, and always interpreted an intersection correctly. It could still be L2 and provide a lot of value to me, but even NoA didn't meet my expectations.
Mostly I'll miss the road handling characteristics of a Model 3 performance driven manually. But, a lot of that was ruined by increasingly bad roads. It's to the point where I need a rally car with a full size spare.
Maybe in a few years Tesla will have a Model Y with L3 or L4 highway driving that will appeal to me.
So are you saying you'll bet against him?
Will you give $100 to a charity of his choosing if 10.13 exceeds his threshold for Chucks unprotected left?
I bet $100 that it won't exceed 95% on that test (given realistic situations and 20 or more attempts), but no one countered my bet. I'm wiling to change my threshold to 90%.
This Chuck thing is fundamentally different from everything else before as not only did Elon mention it specifically, but they're testing in this location.
It can certainly regress in other areas, but they have to show massive improvement for this test or they'll lose face.
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