www.forbes.com
“I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year,” he said. “I think there are no fundamental challenges remaining for level five autonomy.” (c)ElonMuskElon has said Level 5 many times. B.S. from 2020:
Elon Musk: Tesla Will Have Level 5 Self-Driving Cars This Year
Tesla will have essentially fully autonomous self-driving vehicles this year, CEO Elon Musk said in a video recorded for a Chinese AI conference.
I do not think FSD is going to be delivered this year, which would not contradict this particular statement of Elon's. Will they expand the beta to everyone? They might, though I'd be surprised. I think they'll probably get single stack out this year. But none of this would qualify as delivery, since it's not remotely useful and suffers from a ton of defects at the moment. I'm not sure how to define delivery. I guess FSD delivery (for most owners) would be a delivery of an L2 system that people generally feel is pretty decent.
Elon will be shocked. Won't be the first time. He's a wishful thinker. He fell into that trap again (very difficult to avoid, after all). Unless his idea of what FSD needs to be to be delivered has been knocked down several pegs, it's not going to happen this year. Probably not next year either, though another year allows a lot more backsliding on what qualifies as delivery so it's possible.
In context it would be great (even 90% according to the fairly tight criteria would be a huge improvement). But 99% in terms of what it needs to be to be safe and actually even useful is not nearly good enough.There are turns that I (Beta) take that I would consider 75% in 10.13 a GREAT result and improvement.
This is his other turn you are referring to, but I suspect even for the famous much more difficult turn the car also angles itself a bit unnaturally, since that's inexplicably what FSDb does at the moment.
“I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year,” he said. “I think there are no fundamental challenges remaining for level five autonomy.” (c)ElonMusk
And these same dummies KEEP falling for it. Every year:
"he SAID this year, but he didnt really mean THIS year. Isnt that obvious?"
Say what now..
True. But…not in this instance. Haha.
that’s not a prediction, that’s a real life fact!Now who is predicting the future?
Nope, it’s a prediction, and has no more or less credibility regardless of Karpathy.
Beyond optimism and pessimism, I think a good percentage of people just want FSD because they like the features. They want NoA with automatic lane changes. They want autopark (I use it all the time), they want summon because they have tight garages or carports. And they don't mind paying for it. Teslas are considered luxury cars and many of the buyers have the financial capability to buy whatever they want.
Facts require empirical evidence and at this time there is no supporting qualitative data to prove this as a fact. While it may or may NOT turn out to be correct it is an OPINION and NOT a fact. You have no way of disproving cameras and saying they will NEVER work. Just saying so doesn't make it so.
I've often thought that all cars need to communicate with each other. When you need to change lanes, your car sends signals to all other cars around you to make room and allow the change to occur smoothly. When you accelerate, cars around accelerate equally to prevent traffic waves that propagate outwards and slow down people mile(s) away. But to achieve this, we need all cars to be AVs, no more human drivers. Traffic would be a think of the past.
