That was me. I’m still quite confident. My only concern with losing is if Chuck attempts the turn in light traffic. But that would basically be a victory for me as well (I’d do a double-or-nothing bet contingent on another video being done with heavier traffic, at that point).
Elon seems to have forgotten about the March of 9s entirely. “I think we’re roughly at 90% with your turn…so…we’re almost at 100…so…it’s looking good…so…I’m hopeful it might be next week.” The team is apparently working seven days a week on this!
90% is not even remotely close to 100%!
Anyway, remember the stipulations on the bet. I’ve closed the door entirely on any ability to claim failures as successes, which is likely a key to them getting to the 90% level so far. The last attempt we saw with the Tesla test team got 25% (1 of 4 attempts). However, I would guess they may have counted that as 75%. But they had two failures, because they did not go in a timely manner. What we saw also was a 7-9 second crossing of three lanes - that will need to be cut down to about 4-5 seconds maximum in order to be able to be successful per the terms (otherwise a sufficiently large gap would be missed and that’s a failure).
I do hope I am wrong though - as I said elsewhere, the changes required to do this turn 99% of the time (which while quite a poor performance, I would guess they would release at that level), if they are applied generally elsewhere, would be a huge step forward in other areas. The assertiveness required will be a big step up if it applies generally. I think planning and perception will also need big steps forward to enable the car to shoot the gaps like a human. I wish the team a lot of skill and hope they are successful at their 100% target (but that would take a very long time to test of course).
If 10.13 is not released in a couple more weeks, I’ll cancel the beer bet and call it a win. I definitely think that with sufficient time they will be able to get to the low success rate of 90% even with the strict (but realistic and reasonable) stipulations.