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Elon: FSD Beta tweets

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I feel like this is a settled argument. Can anyone argue that Elon's predictions about the timeline for FSD (documented above) were NOT wrong, time and time again? If so, I'd love to hear that argument.

He is clearly comfortable making confident statements when the level of uncertainty doesn't warrant such statements. In fact, I believe that when he was making some of his statements above (in 2016 and 2017) Tesla hadn't even seriously BEGUN developing anything that could be called FSD.

But what does that mean for the future of FSD? To me, it means that I take any proclamations from Elon about timelines (beyond just upcoming releases) with a MASSIVE grain of salt. But it does NOT mean that 2022-2025 will look the same as 2016-2020. Why? Because after years of having nothing to show for it, Tesla has released an increasingly capable FSD stack to over 100k cars on the road. And it *seems* to be getting better over time - 2 steps forward, 1 step back.

Do I have any idea when - or if - sleeping in the back seat will be possible with HW3? No, and I don't think Elon does either. But I'm going to get over his years of misleading statements and enjoy the ride from here :)

I paid attention to all of Musk's pronouncements on autonomous driving when I was deciding whether to buy my Tesla. It all sounded over the top and unrealistic to me, just as it does looking at it in hindsight. I was never tempted by FOMO at the time of purchase (to lock in a price cheaper than adding it on later). To me. FSD sounded like a very ambitious goal that would take way longer before it's ready for production.

Engineers make estimate mistakes all the time. In their minds, the general concept can be implemented in X units of time, but then they fail to consider the devil in the details. They forget that requirements might change. They don't anticipate what they didn't think of. And in my years of working in software, I have always advised engineers to take their most confident estimate and multiply it by 3. And even then, you might be late.

That is the mentality I had with Musk's FSD pronouncement. OK, you're actually working on it. But cross country summon in a year? good luck with that.

I suppose for the people who actually believed his pronouncements, y'all are entitled to feel lied to, ripped off, whatever, and this class action lawsuit might be for you. But a lot of what he said defied reality. And I think some self-reflection is in order if you genuinely just took his words at face value (millions of robotaxis next year) and put down a giant chunk of money because of those statements.
 
I paid attention to all of Musk's pronouncements on autonomous driving when I was deciding whether to buy my Tesla. It all sounded over the top and unrealistic to me, just as it does looking at it in hindsight. I was never tempted by FOMO at the time of purchase (to lock in a price cheaper than adding it on later). To me. FSD sounded like a very ambitious goal that would take way longer before it's ready for production.

Engineers make estimate mistakes all the time. In their minds, the general concept can be implemented in X units of time, but then they fail to consider the devil in the details. They forget that requirements might change. They don't anticipate what they didn't think of. And in my years of working in software, I have always advised engineers to take their most confident estimate and multiply it by 3. And even then, you might be late.

That is the mentality I had with Musk's FSD pronouncement. OK, you're actually working on it. But cross country summon in a year? good luck with that.

I suppose for the people who actually believed his pronouncements, y'all are entitled to feel lied to, ripped off, whatever, and this class action lawsuit might be for you. But a lot of what he said defied reality. And I think some self-reflection is in order if you genuinely just took his words at face value (millions of robotaxis next year) and put down a giant chunk of money because of those statements.
Do you believe the average consumers are software engineers that “know” that all engineers make estimate mistakes “all the time” and should have factored that in when listening to the CEO’s repeated statements and timelines and promises? (yes, I said “promises” as that’s the word repeatedly used in the legal filings).

Or were most buyers of FSD just the average consumer?
 
I was thinking about joining the class action if it makes it that far, but I can't, in good conscience, join it if I never felt duped. I researched on Edmunds, Car and Driver, Consumer Reports, and IIHS before buying. The articles raved about the performance, UI, minimalist but comfortable interior, and crash test safety rating (which were some of the highest scores in the industry). I read about build quality issues with the Model Y, which they said should be inspected carefully before taking delivery. I even read about phantom braking issues with Autopilot, but I quickly found that other car makers were having the same problem, so I assumed it'll get resolved over time (which it has).

Guess I'm a unique buyer, and the only one who won't be in the "class". 😢
It's not whether you were "duped" in buying the car, it's whether you were duped into pre-paying for non-existent FSD (in my case, maybe "Autosteer on City Streets" in your case) based on Elon's and Tesla's promise of upcoming delivery.
 
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And in my years of working in software, I have always advised engineers to take their most confident estimate and multiply it by 3.
Better: take estimate, double it, and change to the next higher unit of time measure. Two weeks you say? Let's plan on four months.

Seriously though--unless you've broken down your development plan into discrete tasks that will take no more than a couple of days each, it's a WAG not an estimate.
 
Do you believe the average consumers are software engineers that “know” that all engineers make estimate mistakes “all the time” and should have factored that in when listening to the CEO’s repeated statements and timelines and promises?
For a buyer of the geekiest cars ever built, a little due diligence would not be unrealistic.

I'm also sick of companies feeling the need to conceal and obfuscate their development intent until everything is fully completed and tested. Go watch Sandy Munro's review of the Ford driving assist technology. It was frustrating and annoying to see the Ford representative absolutely flat out refuse to make any forward looking statement.

As a society we need to have some sort of safe harbor way for innovative companies to make forward looking statements for sophisticated investors and consumers. In other words, please stop denigrating the "average consumer" as stupid and ignorant. Or do you like the silly coffee cup labels "be careful, the beverage you are about to enjoy may be very hot"?
 
I'm also sick of companies feeling the need to conceal and obfuscate their development intent until everything is fully completed and tested. Go watch Sandy Munro's review of the Ford driving assist technology. It was frustrating and annoying to see the Ford representative absolutely flat out refuse to make any forward looking statement.

I agree - and I think the transparency from Tesla since the FSD Beta program began has been absolutely phenomenal. The release notes, the detailed public presentations, etc have provided us with unparalleled visibility into how they are tackling this problem and the current state of their stack.

This is in stark contrast to the years of vague and overconfident proclamations from Elon, with absolutely nothing specific to back it up. And again, in retrospect it seems apparent that his early bold statements made in 2016-2017 were before any of the development work we see today had even started. To call that 'transparency' is a bit of a stretch.
 
Just good organic pressure on the Tesla Autopilot team to wrap up FSD and deliver it by the end of the year. Probably better than Elon pushing them. That will put these suits to rest.
We're almost there. Safety Score > 80 would mean pretty much anyone who wants it could get it. (As long as there is no queue and waiting 6 months for tesla to "let in" more people)
 
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I see 100% believing a Tweet by a CEO to be a FACT equates to watching a Big Mac commercial and expecting it to look exactly the same. But McDonald's "PROMISED" me it would look the same.🤣🤣🤣

Caveat Emptor​

Wait, wait...does that mean that when I pull a slice of pizza away from the whole pie the cheese won't stretch out real pretty like is shown in the ads. I'm shocked!
1663609461345.png
 
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Wait, wait...does that mean that when I pull a slice of pizza away from the whole pie the cheese won't stretch out real pretty like is shown in the ads. I'm shocked!
View attachment 854284
The cheese should stretch! and we should stop allowing ourselves to be lied to. I am not a fool, the emperor has no clothes, and yes, I do expect to get what the picture shows.


Look at ads from early tv and newspaper days. They advertised the product, as it was. The only people peddling lies and exaggerations were called snake oil sellers. They were not popular, once revealed, and were run out of town. Personally, I just want to know what does the product do, not whether my life will improve to some fantasy ideal if I buy it. (Maybe some people do like to be lied to, but we can do better than that)
 
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I think the transparency from Tesla since the FSD Beta program began has been absolutely phenomenal. The release notes, the detailed public presentations, etc have provided us with unparalleled visibility into how they are tackling this problem and the current state of their stack.
Very good point - for all the haters out there: if you're going to use Elon's tweets as binding company statements about the progress of the FSD stack, then you also have to do your due diligence and include other non-official communications like their AI Day events and acknowledged employee publications and presentations at scientific and engineering conferences.

"Oh but that's too hard!" Stop it. Just stop. Tesla says it's not ready yet. If you don't think they're going to make it, then just don't buy it. Do your homework.

This is in stark contrast to the years of vague and overconfident proclamations from Elon, with absolutely nothing specific to back it up. And again, in retrospect it seems apparent that his early bold statements made in 2016-2017 were before any of the development work we see today had even started. To call that 'transparency' is a bit of a stretch.
Fair cop, guv. Guess I only really started paying attention in early 2021 when my 18-year old RX-8 started becoming unreliable again, and Dog Mode convinced me I wanted a Tesla versus any other car available. And yes, Dog Mode worked immediately when I picked up the car in September 2021.
 
Very good point - for all the haters out there: if you're going to use Elon's tweets as binding company statements about the progress of the FSD stack, then you also have to do your due diligence and include other non-official communications like their AI Day events and acknowledged employee publications and presentations at scientific and engineering conferences.

If you are a new-to-Tesla customer, why would you go and look at release notes, AI day events, scientific presentations for the past 5 years etc...do you think everyone buying a Tesla has a PhD in AI/ML? Get outta here...

When the CEO goes out in front of shareholders and says, "FSD WILL BE READY BY THE END OF THE YEAR, IM VERY CONFIDENT"...that's what people see.
 
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