I feel like this is a settled argument. Can anyone argue that Elon's predictions about the timeline for FSD (documented above) were NOT wrong, time and time again? If so, I'd love to hear that argument.
He is clearly comfortable making confident statements when the level of uncertainty doesn't warrant such statements. In fact, I believe that when he was making some of his statements above (in 2016 and 2017) Tesla hadn't even seriously BEGUN developing anything that could be called FSD.
But what does that mean for the
future of FSD? To me, it means that I take any proclamations from Elon about timelines (beyond just upcoming releases) with a MASSIVE grain of salt. But it does NOT mean that 2022-2025 will look the same as 2016-2020. Why? Because after years of having nothing to show for it, Tesla has released an increasingly capable FSD stack to over 100k cars on the road. And it *seems* to be getting better over time - 2 steps forward, 1 step back.
Do I have
any idea when - or if - sleeping in the back seat will be possible with HW3? No, and I don't think Elon does either. But I'm going to get over his years of misleading statements and enjoy the ride from here