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Elon: FSD Beta tweets
- Thread starter Terminator857
- Start date
Let’s see how many lucky people get v11 today:
I wonder how long until FSD Beta drops the "Beta" label for the early access program that many got in with a Safety Score? Most of us don't have the video snapshot button anymore as part of this wide release, so practically that phase has ended. There will very likely still be a "(BETA)" like other Autopilot features.
Similarly it seems like it currently still requires a software update separate from the main production release. Maybe soon it will merge software and actually be available as a toggle without additional download and install. The holiday software update is a good candidate as it will also be a newer version to include those on 2022.40.x.
KArnold
Active Member
IMHO, 20+ years. Elon uses this label as a crutch - I E. auto wipers.
I think you're spot on. We'll get a merge and everyone will be on the same update with an FSD beta toggle next month without a separate fork of a branch for FSD beta.
Perhaps the very early testers (YouTube influencers) will still get a different branch to highlight changes in new updates but the rest of us will probably stop getting nitty gritty details about improvements (5% improvement in this, 7% improvement in that, etc.)
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
That would be wide release, rather than this very narrow release.
To do that, they’d need to ship both the current NOA stack and the single stack stack in the same package and allow switching by toggle - at least that would be required until single stack is ready for wide release. Or they could not do single stack and just ship what they are shipping now (which has the toggle) but that seems unlikely based on prior statements.
Arrgggh:
Folks, this is NOT wide release! Not even close! We don’t to get misuse terms to claim that the goal of wide release has been met!
It is still TBD whether FSD will go wide this year.
This is a very narrow release to a small percentage (any guesses?) of FSD owners/subscribers.
Wide release, by definition, is wide. To everyone. With a toggle since some people might not want to use some features they purchased.
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I'm not really sure what distinction you're trying to make as currently the FSD Beta request button triggers a FSD Beta software download no longer with a Safety Score nor Autosteer mileage requirement (but still a hardware and version compatibility requirement). After the FSD Beta software installs, there's a toggle to turn it on or off.
Yes, these steps are not as convenient as a plain toggle, but practically it's a wide release minus the caveats above that should affect a relatively small percentage of the FSD Capability purchased/subscribed North America population.
Compared to before 10.69.3, TeslaFi FSD Beta software population has increased from 4100 to 4800 and still growing, so roughly 20% increase. If previous 160,000 Beta testers number was accurate, we might be over 200,000 soon.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
The distinction is the percentage of the fleet that has Autosteer on City Streets available with a simple toggle. Is it 100% of properly equipped vehicles which purchased FSD?
It’s a big distinction.
How many FSD purchases have there been?
There is a big difference between having to enroll in a beta program and download special software vs. just having it on the car by default (where features can be turned on/off with toggle). It makes a big difference in the numbers. I know most of us here would just hit the Beta request button in the production release, but it remains to be seen what most owners will do.
Remember, basically everyone has hit the request button who was going to (I doubt SS was a significant dissuading factor and it may not matter at this point anyway since that ship has sailed (decision point has passed for people thinking about requesting) ). What percentage of the relevant fleet is that? No one knows I guess.
Agreed. I think the argument of “everyone” is semantics. Likely they were already pretty deep into the allowed group prior to wide so this wasn’t that much of mind melting challenge. And to argue this was foolish or wrong sorry I don’t think the current pool of 160k users were that Special or amazing drivers that others shouldn’t be included.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
I agree that if 50% or more of FSD owners are now receiving the download then this wide/narrow thing is a bit of a silly distinction.
But I haven’t seen any numbers, and my impression is the percentage is much lower.
(And I am talking owners/subs, not those who had requested.)
Troy Teslike estimated around 320k North America FSD Capability purchases earlier this year with a recent 15% take rate. https://www.patreon.com/posts/tesla-full-self-69513620
Tesla has previously said 160k testers, so already at 50%. With 10.69.3 wide release, third party services are already seeing increases to 60%. I guess we might need to wait until the next quarterly report to get official numbers.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
We’ll assume selection bias does not throw off the numbers too much…but anyway…
Yeah, so right on the borderline, a little below. For sure Tesla has thought about this. Lots of risks in that expanded group! [EDIT: you said 160k testers already…not just applicants…so well over 50% I guess]
To me that seems like not a wide release (I was going to write 70-80% initially rather than 50% but lowered it just to be generous). [EDIT: starting to look like borderline meaningless distinction - but perhaps still additional risk there in the remaining]
I guess we’ll maybe get an idea of the actual numbers at some point. Though perhaps not.
In the third party services they’ll see a big jump in % but that is of course not representative - I would not expect a big increase in actual application to the program with this change. Obviously kind of a hassle. People want that thing that drives for them, they don’t want to wait for a download or push any buttons other than a toggle. Quite different.
Anyway not release to the fleet for sure.
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I'll have a good laugh when I see my first funky FSDb characteristics from a Tesla on the road - stop 30ft before an intersection, creep, brake too late, phantom brake, indecisive steering, etc.
And what will you do when you see your first Tesla just driving normally, not realizing it's on FSD Beta?
While this is not as good as single stack release or inclusion of city streets into the production FSD, it's still a very major milestone and paves the way for the full release at the end of the year. Did people who had not previously requested FSDb get notified that it was now available?
To be clear, North America consists of 23 countries. Is that what Elon meant?
United States, Mexico, Canada,
Guatemala, Cuba, Haiti, Dominican Republic, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Panama, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Belize, Bahamas, Barbados, Saint Lucia, Grenada, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Saint Kitts and Nevis
If he just meant United States and Canada, then can FSD Beta still be driven in the other countries, assuming you could get your car there?
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