TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker and becoming a Supporting Member. For more info: Support TMC

Elon hints he'll buy back shares and "taking Tesla private"

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by jkirkwood001, Aug 7, 2018.

  1. Reality

    Reality Member

    Joined:
    Apr 11, 2018
    Messages:
    549
    Location:
    USA
    i think there is a non zero % chance one of the following is true:

    1) He made a dumb joke without realizing how serious it is (affluenza of sorts) and now has to figure out how to fix it, i think the outcome here is the claim of a deal "falling through" or something like that


    2) He wanted to burn the shorts because he really really hates shorts, but didnt realize that he might have committed securities fraud, i mean he has walked that line on twitter so many times he is probably numb to it.
     
    • Disagree x 11
  2. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2011
    Messages:
    14,702
    Location:
    Ithaca, NY, USA
    So it seems that the term for the sort of deal Musk is talking about is "stub equity", though this would be the mother of all stub deals. Stub equity deals seem to be consistently sloooow to close, because they're complicated.

    Dave Morton, Tesla's Chief Accounting Officer, came from Seagate where they did a stub equity privatization.
     
    • Helpful x 3
    • Informative x 2
    • Like x 2
  3. Reality

    Reality Member

    Joined:
    Apr 11, 2018
    Messages:
    549
    Location:
    USA
    Question for Bulls, preferably ones with market experience


    Do you feel Tesla should be trading right now? Is there anything that would make this ok or not ok?


    I feel like both sides should agree that trading should have been halted until a material release of information (ie not a blog post) was made. Curious if you feel the same.
     
  4. Reality

    Reality Member

    Joined:
    Apr 11, 2018
    Messages:
    549
    Location:
    USA
    Source? Reasonable speculation but Morton has been there for like a month
     
    • Disagree x 1
  5. Mario Kadastik

    Mario Kadastik Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2013
    Messages:
    2,189
    Location:
    Rae, Harjumaa, Estonia
    Well Elon might have had that in mind when he picked him and he did approach the board a week ago with the motivation and financing outline and the board has been meeting many times since to do the diligence.
     
    • Like x 2
  6. oneday

    oneday Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 29, 2014
    Messages:
    1,074
    Location:
    Bay Area
    In the Seagate case it looked like it took about a year. I wonder if Tesla can accelerate this? Probably will need to wait to see more details to really know anything.

    Here is a link to a Harvard case study on the Seagate deal. It costs $9 but could be worth a read.
    Seagate Technology Buyout
     
  7. Boomer19

    Boomer19 Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2018
    Messages:
    1,421
    Location:
    ny metro
    i think you should go back to your coop and
    take a timeout
     
  8. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 3, 2017
    Messages:
    10,200
    Location:
    Michigan
    3k words:

    boring_0.PNG boring_1.PNG private_0.PNG
     
    • Love x 4
    • Like x 2
    • Helpful x 1
  9. Reality

    Reality Member

    Joined:
    Apr 11, 2018
    Messages:
    549
    Location:
    USA
    see I dont get this, it's a reasonable question.

    Whether it is true or not I dont really care when it comes to the question. I am questioning the handling of this by the SEC not the stance of your investment.


    Do you know how many BULLS with long dated OTM calls got destroyed yesterday? lots of MM got out because of the way this has been handled and today is allowing for possibly more games. I just dont think it should be trading and wanted to know if bulls agree.
     
    • Like x 1
  10. Reality

    Reality Member

    Joined:
    Apr 11, 2018
    Messages:
    549
    Location:
    USA
  11. Boomer19

    Boomer19 Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2018
    Messages:
    1,421
    Location:
    ny metro
    i understand the implications. my response was more about your other antics as i was reading through the thread.
     
  12. Reality

    Reality Member

    Joined:
    Apr 11, 2018
    Messages:
    549
    Location:
    USA
    Don't be so emotional, I am down, you are up. I am still here to take the beatings and get banned for light offenses (3 and counting).

    I honestly want bulls takes.
     
  13. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 3, 2017
    Messages:
    10,200
    Location:
    Michigan
    sec.PNG :)
     
    • Funny x 1
  14. Reality

    Reality Member

    Joined:
    Apr 11, 2018
    Messages:
    549
    Location:
    USA
    THe best thing going for the bulls right now seems like the stock isn't reacting like someone is just sitting on a bid
     
    • Like x 1
  15. Boomer19

    Boomer19 Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2018
    Messages:
    1,421
    Location:
    ny metro
    my take is that i’m interested to see how the offer will be structured;

    i’m guessing exchange offer; where those opting for private shares must be accredited or QIBs

    all others will have to take cash, including those in investment vehicles not allowed to hold private equity shares.

    and the tax consequences of the deal for holders.
     
    • Like x 2
  16. adiggs

    adiggs Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2012
    Messages:
    2,428
    Location:
    Portland, OR
    Here's what is bothering me about this offer. I think I can finally put this into words.

    The overall situation I see with Tesla today, reasoning by analogy (which is its own problem, but it is nonetheless how I see things today), is very much the $30 Tesla of several years ago that went crazy and reset from $25-$35, to $130 to $180 in a pretty short time window.

    I see today's Tesla has having a lot of the same factors line up for it, and if anything, even HIGHER short interest making for an even more tightly wound spring, getting set to take off. In today's dollars, that means I see TSLA getting ready to jump from $350 to $1800 over the next 3-12 months, with the big kickoff starting with the Q3 earnings (and therefore some front running leading into earnings).

    Back in 12/13, we first had Model S in really limited numbers, but it was amazing. Then it could be built, and the whole view of the company changed. Reset.


    Today, we're hearing that Model 3 is amazing. It's pretty clear to me that the ramp woes are "over" (we're not going to see a quarter where Tesla suddenly forgets how to build M3, and produces 5k units total). 50k units a quarter, with overal company profitability is going to reset the proper valuation of the company.

    I don't know it'll be $350 to $1800 kind of reset, but I think doubling is a really low estimate. If I'm right, and there are people with deep pockets who are also seeing the same thing, then of course they want to buy today at $420, and do it in a way that keeps the stock from taking off today. So they can get as much of the increase for themselves as possible.

    To me, the $420 price isn't a go-private / buyout premium - it's a discount.


    Leading to the obvious corollary - for those shares that I can follow along privately, I will. Because of restrictions on different accounts, I don't expect to maintain even 50% of my current holding through the conversion (not by my choice).
     
    • Like x 5
    • Love x 1
  17. MagicDog

    MagicDog Member

    Joined:
    May 22, 2018
    Messages:
    73
    Location:
    Toronto
    @adiggs I agree with you completely. Going private will screw the shorts but many loyal long retail investors are going to end up as collateral damage.
     
    • Like x 2
    • Love x 1
  18. TintDepot.com

    TintDepot.com Member

    Joined:
    Aug 1, 2018
    Messages:
    60
    Location:
    houston, tx
    You can buy more shares now & keep your investment when/if it goes private. You don't have to sell your shares; they just become private shares.
     
  19. adiggs

    adiggs Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2012
    Messages:
    2,428
    Location:
    Portland, OR
    I'm thinking about that. The challenge for my situation is that the bulk of my shares come from a really early purchase ($27) in a Roth IRA. If I can't continue holding them in that type of account, then I don't see a reasonable way to move that money out of and back into Tesla without generating way more tax and penalty liability than I'm willing to take on.

    (Sheer dumb luck - I didn't really think about it when I made that purchase; obviously it's my brilliant investment decision making :)).
     
  20. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 3, 2017
    Messages:
    10,200
    Location:
    Michigan
    I assume you've had the Roth more than 5 years based on the stock price, so you're speaking of the 10% early withdrawl penalty and income taxes on future earnings?
     

Share This Page

  • About Us

    Formed in 2006, Tesla Motors Club (TMC) was the first independent online Tesla community. Today it remains the largest and most dynamic community of Tesla enthusiasts. Learn more.
  • Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.


    SUPPORT TMC