Elon: Model X Q2 Production 1,000 per week

[Drivin]

I feel there's a reason people equate short and unethical, though. Short implies pessimism - not always about the company, but certainly about the valuation. Long implies optimism across the board. Nobody likes a pessimist, especially when they're right.

I agree.
To add to that, being short implies to some people that they aren't "supporting" the company by people who don't seem to fully understand that when you buy stock the money doesn't go to the company. LOL

 

[wannamodels]

I'm starting to wish Elon had cancelled another guy's order.

Agreed, if folks constantly rant about their model s they should give/sell it to someone who wants one. And if they want CEO's to stop making promises about future products they need to go live in a hole in the ground...this rant is silly...go back to a crappy bmw or mbz ice car, puh-lease...

 

[stopcrazypp]

I agree with Drivin. Also, don't forget that the vast majority of shares are being traded algorithmically. The algorithms don't have a bias or spread FUD, and they will snatch up dips and sell peaks as necessary. I built them and for more than a decade, they took long and short positions. I had no sentiment about the companies I traded, and neither did my algorithms.

As a human trader, there are valid reasons for being short - you have good reason to believe a company is overvalued, or that there are macro conditions that are likely to affect certain segments more dramatically. These don't mean you're unethical.

I feel there's a reason people equate short and unethical, though. Short implies pessimism - not always about the company, but certainly about the valuation. Long implies optimism across the board. Nobody likes a pessimist, especially when they're right.

And as a last thought, I think "real" shorts, the ones who have positions that matter, don't give a damn about spreading FUD or posting on message boards, because they know that isn't going to make a dent in an issue with a ~ $20B market cap and 120MM+ outstanding shares.

I think this goes to the definition of "real shorts" and "real longs".

However, for the purposes of this forum the "real shorts" that we interact with are the ones who feel the need to post here. If they don't post here, they don't "exist" here. And more often than not they like to spread FUD, unsubstantiated negative rumors, or make mountains out of molehills for any negative issue. This is because they have the financial incentive to do so. It may not go to the point of stock manipulation, but it permeates into any comment they make despite how they may like to say otherwise (more often than not they like to claim they have an objective voice).

I consider "real longs" to be the ones who buy more shares when the stock drops. These people don't care about short term fluctuations of the stock (other than the ability to get more shares), but rather about the long term success of the company. They also have financial incentive for the stock to do well, but on a much longer time scale than a short. So they can sit back and look at the big picture instead.

 

[Drivin]

I think this goes to the definition of "real shorts" and "real longs".

Oh good, we are now creating new phrases! How about "pseudo real longs" and "fake longs" and "medium longs""

Let me use modify your words to add some context to the parallel for "real longs"

And more often than not they like to spread hype, unsubstantiated positive rumors, or make mountains out of molehills for any positive issue and gloss over or attack any negative issue. This is because they have the financial incentive to do so. It may not go to the point of stock manipulation, but it permeates into any comment they make despite how they may like to say otherwise (more often than not they like to claim they have an objective voice).

See how that works?

 

[Nototrader]

Oh good, we are now creating new phrases! How about "pseudo real longs" and "fake longs" and "medium longs""

Let me use modify your words to add some context to the parallel for "real longs"

And more often than not they like to spread hype, unsubstantiated positive rumors, or make mountains out of molehills for any positive issue and gloss over or attack any negative issue. This is because they have the financial incentive to do so. It may not go to the point of stock manipulation, but it permeates into any comment they make despite how they may like to say otherwise (more often than not they like to claim they have an objective voice).

See how that works?

well done. i am not long or short TSLA, but I am impressed with your jedi reversal debate skills!

 

[CTemp222]

Oh good, we are now creating new phrases! How about "pseudo real longs" and "fake longs" and "medium longs""

Let me use modify your words to add some context to the parallel for "real longs"

And more often than not they like to spread hype, unsubstantiated positive rumors, or make mountains out of molehills for any positive issue and gloss over or attack any negative issue. This is because they have the financial incentive to do so. It may not go to the point of stock manipulation, but it permeates into any comment they make despite how they may like to say otherwise (more often than not they like to claim they have an objective voice).

See how that works?

I'll just say the only real difference between shorts and long are that shorts are more pessimistic about the company's future, longs will be more optimistic. When they first choose to become short/long it's based on an opinion that is not affected by their financial success in the stock market. So I would say when a trader makes his first decision to short or long a stock it's based on the honest opinion of the trader. After that they may try to push the stock up or down.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Oh good, we are now creating new phrases! How about "pseudo real longs" and "fake longs" and "medium longs""

Let me use modify your words to add some context to the parallel for "real longs"

And more often than not they like to spread hype, unsubstantiated positive rumors, or make mountains out of molehills for any positive issue and gloss over or attack any negative issue. This is because they have the financial incentive to do so. It may not go to the point of stock manipulation, but it permeates into any comment they make despite how they may like to say otherwise (more often than not they like to claim they have an objective voice).

See how that works?

The difference is the longs I describe don't typically claim they are trying to be objective. They are very clear that they are fans and optimists. Also, they don't have a big incentive to spread hype (those are the regular traders who want to sell high in a relatively short time scale). In fact, they are happy to see short term drops so they can increase their position.

I will just say that practically all the people I have seen that come here and claim they are an "objective short" fail to hold up that persona for very long. The negativity permeates very quickly.

In case it is not clear, I have no position in any stock at the moment (or in the past).

 

[Drivin]

I contributed too much to this long/short discussion already...but here is my motivation for doing so.

I think it is great for people to discuss the positives as well as the negatives of any product. I wish people wouldn't automatically assume a negative comment is based on a desire to manipulate the market to benefit from a short position.

Understanding negative things about a car, the ownership experience, service, etc is a valuable thing.

Yes, of course, there are overly petty negative comments, just like there are overly petty positive statements, but anyone successful enough to own a car of this cost, should be smart enough to put those in context.

Disclosure: I hold no direct positions in TSLA at this point, although probably have indirect positions via mutual funds.

Lastly, if you believe that someone could financially benefit from a petty negative comment on a forum because of a short position, PM me. I am willing to sell you my upgrade concept for a 70D that gets you 550miles/charge, has lighted vanity mirrors and coat hangers

 

[Electricfan]

Y'know, this button really came in handy:
View attachment 110618

Is there any way to find out how many people are ignoring you? Not you, me. I mean yourself. Not yourself, myself. You know what I mean.

 

[CarlK]

I feel there's a reason people equate short and unethical, though. Short implies pessimism - not always about the company, but certainly about the valuation. Long implies optimism across the board. Nobody likes a pessimist, especially when they're right.

The reason is shorts tend to be traders as opposed to investors are almost always longs. Traders are more sensitive to short term market movement. Only traders can benefit form manipulation of short term movement and believe me they will take every opportunity they have to do that. The argument that it dose not work so people will not try it is just like saying crime does not pay so there will be no crimes. They are always desperate or just dumb criminals regardless of if it does or does not pay.

Sure. Just like a person who is bullish on the company may bet on the stock going up by buying options - and their worse nightmare is for a significant downward movement. "They will do anything, sometimes even pretty silly things, to prevent that to happen."

Nay, only gamblers buy short expiration options. No real investor would ever do that. Short by definition is always highly leveraged very much like short expiration options if not worse.

 

[stopcrazypp]

The reason is shorts tend to be traders as opposed to investors which are pretty much all longs. Traders are more sensitive to short term market movement. Only traders, which can be long or short, although much lower percentage of longs are traders than shorts, can benefit form manipulation of short term movement and believe me they will take every opportunity they can to do that. The argument that it dose not work so people will not try it is just like saying crime does not pay so there will be no crimes. They are always desperate of just dumb criminals regardless if it does or does not pay.

You put it more eloquently than I could have. The trader vs investor description perfectly separates the "real longs" I was talking about.

And I agree with your latter point too. In the investor subforum, it is easy to find a recent locked thread that is one such example (don't want to link it). There is a long history of shorts coming here to TMC to try. The argument that "it does not work" does not stop them from trying.

 

[ohmman]

The reason is shorts tend to be traders as opposed to investors are almost always longs. Traders are more sensitive to short term market movement. Only traders can benefit form manipulation of short term movement and believe me they will take every opportunity they have to do that.

I worked in the industry for years. Your argument is that traders will go to any length to profit. This is grossly misrepresenting the majority of traders, who care more about the technical side of things. In 15 years of being exposed to trading floors, I never once heard someone say, "let's go hit the message boards." Everyone is concerned more about support levels, volume, trade size, and other things that actually matter.

I do think I understand what you're trying to say, though. Perhaps it's this: if someone is saying bad things, they might be expressing their negative bias about the company, which is also represented by their negative holdings in the stock. So yes, negative bias in posts could be correlated with sell side holdings in the stock. Just as overly positive bias is often correlated with long holdings in the stock.

The short term TSLA movements thread is full of this stuff on both sides. I don't think the negative people are influencing the market, and I don't think the positive ones are either. What I think is their posts reflect their overall sentiment, and their holdings do the same. Correlation, not causation.

 

[Drivin]

Nay, only gamblers buy short expiration options. No real investor would ever do that. Short by definition is always highly leveraged very much like short expiration options if not worse.

1. No, that is NOT the definition of a short. Please stop making things up. Some short positions are highly leveraged, some don't.
2. As for no real investors by short expiration options, I guess with that definition, Warren Buffet is not a "real investor".

Years ago, with Coca Cola stock around $39, Warren Buffett sold 50,000 put options (which represent 5 million shares) with a strike price of $35 for $1.50 per share, making $7.5 million immediately.

Buffett did the same thing for Burlington Northern Santa Fe. During the third quarter of 2008, National Indemnity Company, which is a subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway sold almost 5.5 million shares of put options on Burlington Northern Santa Fe

"I believe each contract we own was mispriced at inception, sometimes dramatically so." ... Buffett is saying that each one of these positions was an investment because he had reason to expect a positive return. What he is saying is that, like us, he views options as a tool for investing...Let's just say that it's nice to have someone of his caliber approaching option investing as we do.

LOL.

 

[CTemp222]

I worked in the industry for years. Your argument is that traders will go to any length to profit. This is grossly misrepresenting the majority of traders, who care more about the technical side of things. In 15 years of being exposed to trading floors, I never once heard someone say, "let's go hit the message boards." Everyone is concerned more about support levels, volume, trade size, and other things that actually matter.

I do think I understand what you're trying to say, though. Perhaps it's this: if someone is saying bad things, they might be expressing their negative bias about the company, which is also represented by their negative holdings in the stock. So yes, negative bias in posts could be correlated with sell side holdings in the stock. Just as overly positive bias is often correlated with long holdings in the stock.

The short term TSLA movements thread is full of this stuff on both sides. I don't think the negative people are influencing the market, and I don't think the positive ones are either. What I think is their posts reflect their overall sentiment, and their holdings do the same. Correlation, not causation.

Thank you!

Here is the real definition of short: sell (stocks or other securities or commodities) in advance of acquiring them, with the aim of making a profit when the price falls.

Now that that's out of the way maybe we can go back to the topic of this thread?
I believe that Tesla will be able to produce 1,000 X's per week (and S's) by the second quarter. Once all the kinks are worked out in production line and they're having defect rates of >1% (or around that of the Model S) they can easily scale production. People have already reported that X's coming from Fremont have less defects with the cars. This would mean that yearly production rate would be around 104,000 units by second quarter.

 

[pvogel]

I hope you mean <1% not >1%

 

[AlMc]

Thank you!

Here is the real definition of short: sell (stocks or other securities or commodities) in advance of acquiring them, with the aim of making a profit when the price falls.

Now that that's out of the way maybe we can go back to the topic of this thread?
I believe that Tesla will be able to produce 1,000 X's per week (and S's) by the second quarter. Once all the kinks are worked out in production line and they're having defect rates of >1% (or around that of the Model S) they can easily scale production. People have already reported that X's coming from Fremont have less defects with the cars. This would mean that yearly production rate would be around 104,000 units by second quarter.

The 104,000 run rate would be great but it does exceed EM's estimate of an average of 1600-1800/week. Even if you take the higher end AND work 52 weeks that works out to 93,600 if my napkin math is correct.

 

[CTemp222]

I hope you mean <1% not >1%

Yes I meant less than

- - - Updated - - -

The 104,000 run rate would be great but it does exceed EM's estimate of an average of 1600-1800/week. Even if you take the higher end AND work 52 weeks that works out to 93,600 if my napkin math is correct.

That might be the average of the entire year, because I wasn't saying that they will produce 104,000 cars this year but when they get to second quarter they will theoretically be able to do 104,000 cars at that point in time. So I bet that Elon was saying that the average rate of production for this year is 1600-1800 depending on the ramp.

 

[Nototrader]

I'm going to get blasted for this, but as a new person to these forums and to tesla, I find most of the tesla customers on this forum to be extremely protective of the brand....in a strange way. Many (not all) of the people here are only interested in protecting the brand in an almost cult-like way. I, myself, got blasted for making a comment that I thought q1 sales would be terrible because of how long it is taking tesla to deliver this first batch of X cars. I was told that I'm making the comment because I want to manipulate people into thinking there is limited supply so I can scare someone into buying the X I put up for sale for a huge markup.

Also, the first time someone posted their list of numerous issues with their new X, they were encouraged to keep it to themselves so that they wouldn't influence other people or affect the brand. To me it seems some of those people are being hypocrites and are really long the stock and are scared of someone being honest in a negative way so the company doesn't look bad. I for one enjoy reading all the positives and all the negatives as long as they are true and legit. In my mind, that is what this forum should be.

And, btw, as someone who used to day trade for a living, I know for a fact that nobody on this forum can say anything that will really affect the overall movement of the stock. People aren't stupid and unless somebody is making up huge lies in a big way on a large scale, a big volume stock like tesla will not be affected by comments here.

 

[ModelXBoy]

How many years does a company have to be in business to be considered out of the 'start up' category?

People here are very loyal to the brand of Tesla including myself and most of us believe Tesla and Elon Must have created a masterpiece that no other manufacture can even dream of doing. To be fair in my opinion there are so many good things to say about Tesla and how brilliant and innovative Elon Musk is. Nothing is perfect including Tesla. But nothing exists without flaws, Tesla does need to better inform customer about possible delays and keep a better communication with more precise information with their clients. There won't be that many people complaining about their car if sufficient information is giving. After all Tesla is just a start up company and should treat as such. Eventually they will find a way to better their manufacturing process and up their communication with their customers.

 

[AlMc]

People here are very loyal to the brand of Tesla including myself and most of us believe Tesla and Elon Must have created a masterpiece that no other manufacture can even dream of doing. To be fair in my opinion there are so many good things to say about Tesla and how brilliant and innovative Elon Musk is. Nothing is perfect including Tesla. But nothing exists without flaws, Tesla does need to better inform customer about possible delays and keep a better communication with more precise information with their clients. There won't be that many people complaining about their car if sufficient information is giving. After all Tesla is just a start up company and should treat as such. Eventually they will find a way to better their manufacturing process and up their communication with their customers.

How many years does a company have to be in business to be considered out of the 'start up' category?