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Elon Musk: “Drivers will be able to sleep at the wheel by end 2020”

diplomat33

Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Aug 3, 2017
8,554
12,097
Terre Haute, IN USA
“My guess as to when we would think it is safe for somebody to essentially fall asleep and wake up at their destination? Probably towards the end of next year,”

So if you’ve smoked some cones, the car will be able navigate the cones?

1) Elon says "guess" so it's not a promise.

2) Elon has been pretty consistent about this "guess". He clearly believes that a year will be enough for Tesla to go from FC to full autonomy. He probably thinks that the large fleet data will be key to improve the software very quickly.

But the only way it would even remotely be plausible is if Tesla actually has full vision NN done in development and is hiding full autonomy software that they can release in a few months and just need to tweak. But the software that we have now in our cars is a long way from full autonomy and is definitely not just 1 year away from "sleep in your car to your destination".

3) Elon has made these types of guesses a lot before and has missed the mark every single time. He does not exactly have a good track record on this. So I would not attach any credibility whatsoever to this guess.

4) The current cameras can't handle strong heavy rain so at best it would be L4 autonomy, in good weather. The current hardware can't do L5 autonomy. So even if Tesla does achieve "sleep and wake up at your destination" autonomy at some point in the future, it would only work in good weather conditions.
 

electronblue

Active Member
Oct 1, 2018
2,325
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Earth
@diplomat33

As I said earlier: Tesla keeps doubling down on the Level 5 promise, instead of walking back.

At this stage when they must know how far along they really are it must mean one of only two things:

1) They are massively further along than the public thinks
or
2) They are committing fraud on a massive scale

Because you just don’t say stuff like that if it isn’t one or the other. Same with ”Level 5 no geofence feature complete” at Autonomy Investor Day.

I agree we don’t know which one it is.
 

diplomat33

Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Aug 3, 2017
8,554
12,097
Terre Haute, IN USA
@diplomat33

As I said earlier: Tesla keeps doubling down on the Level 5 promise, instead of walking back.

At this stage when they must know how far along they really are it must mean one of only two things:

1) They are massively further along than the public thinks
or
2) They are committing fraud on a massive scale

Because you just don’t say stuff like that if it isn’t one or the other. Same with ”Level 5 no geofence feature complete” at Autonomy Investor Day.

I agree we don’t know which one it is.

Those are only the 2 most extreme possibilities. You are ignoring other possibilities. And frankly, in life, the truth is usually somewhere in the middle.
 

electronblue

Active Member
Oct 1, 2018
2,325
2,507
Earth
Those are only the 2 most extreme possibilities. You are ignoring other possibilities. And frankly, in life, the truth is usually somewhere in the middle.

I’m all ears what they might be because having listened to Musk/Tesla on this since their 2014-2015 initial comments, I can’t think of any other explanations: either they are much further along than we know in public — or they are full of it. By now the latest they would know which is which, so whatever is done, is being done intentionally.
 
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Bladerskb

Senior Software Engineer
Oct 24, 2016
2,557
4,268
Michigan
He is talking about feature complete. He even defined what that means in the last qtr meeting. Suggest listening to his definitions of feature complete, RC, and GA (ie legally approved).

No it's not. FC was for end of 2019.
Also he said this same thing 2 and a half year ago ("in 2 years you can sleep blah blah"). Its total nonsense.
 
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diplomat33

Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Aug 3, 2017
8,554
12,097
Terre Haute, IN USA
I’m all ears what they might be because having listened to Musk/Tesla on this since their 2014-2015 initial comments, I can’t think of any other explanations: either they are much further along than we know in public — or they are full of it. By know the latest they would know which is which, so whatever is done, is being done intentionally.

Now, you are shifting the goal posts a bit. First, you said the choices were either "way ahead" or "massive fraud". Now you are saying the choices are between "way ahead" and "full of it". "Full of it" is not the same thing as "massive fraud". Which are you going with?

I think a 3rd option is that Tesla is further ahead than we think (but not massively further ahead) and Elon is being wildly optimistic. So is Elon "full of it"? Yes! But saying it is "massive fraud" implies criminality which is a whole other level.
 
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diplomat33

Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Aug 3, 2017
8,554
12,097
Terre Haute, IN USA
I think Elon should completely avoid making any promises or predictions about when Tesla will achieve autonomous driving and instead focus on just providing specific and concrete updates on the current status of FSD. I would love it if Tesla provided a blog or short video, maybe once a month or so, going over what the development team has been working on recently. Imagine getting a little video of what the car sees (like what verygreen puts out) that shows the development cars can now track more stuff on the road or a video showing the car navigating intersections successfully etc... That way we could see concrete progress and see what the development software is capable of. I think it would give us much more realistic expectations of what Tesla is doing. And, maybe it might even give us some reasons to be more optimistic if we see that Tesla has made real progress in a big way in a certain feature or that good "FSD" feature is coming soon.
 

am_dmd

Member
Jan 29, 2017
306
350
PA
I don't know why people who are optimistic still believes this non sense. I can only guess you are too naive. Tesla sensor suite is just not sufficient for FSD. Let me state the obvious since everyone isn't addressing the elephant in the room - Elon is a pathologic liar.
I have no problem if Tesla comes up with a statement that look we currently do not have FSD but we believe we can do it. As soon as we have it working (to whatever extent) we will provide an upgrade path/cost etc. For now we would like to REFUND the FSD upgrade. What makes this fraud is complete silence and willing to acknowledge the hardware difference since 2016 by Tesla.
 
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