Elon Musk: “Drivers will be able to sleep at the wheel by end 2020”

[Uncle Paul]

I have trouble sleeping in a moving car. How will this new software enable me to get better sleep

 

[electronblue]

Now, you are shifting the goal posts a bit. First, you said the choices were either "way ahead" or "massive fraud". Now you are saying the choices are between "way ahead" and "full of it". "Full of it" is not the same thing as "massive fraud". Which are you going with?

I think a 3rd option is that Tesla is further ahead than we think (but not massively further ahead) and Elon is being wildly optimistic. So is Elon "full of it"? Yes! But saying it is "massive fraud" implies criminality which is a whole other level.

”Full of it” was me referring to the second of my two choices, so massive fraud.

Certainly if Tesla has been ”full of it” when selling FSD, that would be massive fraud.

So let’s hope they are massively ahead compared to public perception instead.

 

[electronblue]

I think Elon should completely avoid making any promises or predictions about when Tesla will achieve autonomous driving and instead focus on just providing specific and concrete updates on the current status of FSD. I would love it if Tesla provided a blog or short video, maybe once a month or so, going over what the development team has been working on recently. Imagine getting a little video of what the car sees (like what verygreen puts out) that shows the development cars can now track more stuff on the road or a video showing the car navigating intersections successfully etc... That way we could see concrete progress and see what the development software is capable of. I think it would give us much more realistic expectations of what Tesla is doing. And, maybe it might even give us some reasons to be more optimistic if we see that Tesla has made real progress in a big way in a certain feature or that good "FSD" feature is coming soon.

If they are doing the fraud thing, the likely reason they don’t do what you (and I) hope is they think the wilder message sells more cars and pleases the markets better.

Why else would they keep making such ludicrous statements all the time?

Unless they are massively more ahead compared to what we think and know, that is.

 

[FactsBot]

“My guess as to when we would think it is safe for somebody to essentially fall asleep and wake up at their destination? Probably towards the end of next year,”

My wife can do this already.

 

[am_dmd]

My wife can do this already.

As a driver?
She must be a bionic woman

 

[FactsBot]

As a driver?
She must be a bionic woman

As a passenger of course. Elon didn't specify it.

 

[run-the-joules]

3MM6MD

I almost ordered that as a license plate.

 

[Kuhz]

I almost ordered that as a license plate.

Ha. That gives me an idea

 

[run-the-joules]

Ha. That gives me an idea

I really hope someone does it.

 

[Kuhz]

I really hope someone does it.

Oh yeah. The license plate reader from that Geico commercial will have a hard one with that baby.

 

[electronblue]

Does AP2 have LiMu Emu detection in feature complete?

 

[diplomat33]

Does AP2 have LiMu Emu detection in feature complete?

What's "limu emu'?

 

[electronblue]

What's "limu emu'?

You don’t watch cable?

 

[diplomat33]

You don’t watch cable?

No. I cut the cord.

 

[electronblue]

No. I cut the cord.

OK.

Introducing LiMu Emu and Doug, the Dynamic Duo of the Insurance World Starring in New Liberty Mutual Ad Campaign

 

[Silicon Desert]

I'm already way ahead of Elon. I'm asleep at the wheel...……… in the garage

 

[am_dmd]

I'm already way ahead of Elon. I'm asleep at the wheel...……… in the garage

True...Elon didn't say sleep at the wheel while driving.

 

[kqnjml]

His statement isn’t that far from the truth since you can actually sleep behind the wheel using NOAP now on the highway. The question is how long can you sleep behind the wheel. NOAP will take you 6 ft under if you let it take a curved ramp exit! Lol

 

[diplomat33]

So let’s hope they are massively ahead compared to public perception instead.

Based on this new video fro Karpathy, it looks like what Tesla has in development running on the AP3 computer is definitely way ahead of what we have now running on AP2 or AP2.5.

Karpathy also mentions Dojo which he says is a neural net training computer. Basically, Tesla hopes to completely automate neural net training from start to finish where all they will need to do is just feed labeled data into the machine and the machine will completely train the NN. I suspect this is why Elon believes that it will just 1 year to get to "sleep in your Tesla and wake up your destination". He is counting on Dojo greatly accelerating the NN training process to finish FSD.

 

[DanCar]

... He is counting on Dojo greatly accelerating the NN training process to finish FSD.

If they want faster NN training they can jump on the cloud and use TPUs that are already an order of magnitude faster than what they are using. Their custom chip for training will unlikely beat cloud resources.

FSD being trivialized to faster NN training, oh my. It is so much more complicated than that. Although it is one of the big bottlenecks. Faster NN training enables faster experimentation and faster feedback on new ideas. As the costs drop for NN training it enables more people to experiment, such as students. Costs halve each year? Costs drop because of new hardware and improved algorithms.