Yeah I agree listening to his comments they haven't really locked in on that for GENIII. You might be right, in he end he most efficient for those volumes may turn out to be a batch hybrid model. Apple does that, much different product of course, but works well. Will definitely be interesting to see it play out
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Yeah I agree listening to his comments they haven't really locked in on that for GENIII. You might be right, in he end he most efficient for those volumes may turn out to be a batch hybrid model. Apple does that, much different product of course, but works well. Will definitely be interesting to see it play out
I agree that the production and sales model will need significant changes to hit Model 3 volumes.
Production side will need to shift to batching of identical, or near-identical cars.
On ordering, while I expect that customized on-line ordering will still be an option, I wouldn't be surprised if there were regional inventories held at a warehouse, to allow for 2–3 day delivery. Americans aren't used to waiting 4–6 weeks for a new car.
Production side will need to shift to batching of identical, or near-identical cars.
On ordering, while I expect that customized on-line ordering will still be an option, I wouldn't be surprised if there were regional inventories held at a warehouse, to allow for 2–3 day delivery. Americans aren't used to waiting 4–6 weeks for a new car.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Yes, 2020.
Lets assume 3x as many model S as model X until Model 3 comes online and then growth with Model S stagnating and Model 3 taking those sales. Overall growth on top of all of that
total back of the napkin no big logic:
Tesla Model S/Model X/Model 3 deliveries:
2015 - 50,000 / 15,000 / 0,000
2016 - 60,000 / 20,000 / 0,000
2017 - 70,000 / 25,000 / 25,000 (new cars trickling off the line end of year)
2018 - 75,000 / 27,000 / 100,000 (pushing to expand production, insane months of backlog of orders)
2019 - 80,000 / 30,000 / 250,000 (production of main factory full, 2nd factory tooling up, 3rd factory under construction
2020 - 85,000 / 35,000 / 420,000 (production at two factories solid, 3rd factory tooling up/getting out a few cars that year)
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I would expect to see the X / S ratio to go to 1:1 or even slightly favor the X as SUVs seem to outsell the large luxury sedan segment. I do expect a Model S refresh/ redo sometime in the 2017/2018 period and an expansion of the Gen3 to beyond just a sedan (probably smaller SUV). I also agree that if things are going well Tesla will be gearing up new production factories as well as a new battery factory during this period.
I agree with the X/S ratio being off. I think actually it will reverse, with the X outselling the S in a couple of years. The worry I have about the S is demand. In a couple of years, without a major update/redo I feel demand will be constant, NOT increasing. I am much more conservative and picture the S sales in 2018-2020 being around 30-40 k per year. The X will be 40-50K if lucky. For comparison sake, the Porsche cayenne sold around 18 000 units in US for years 2013 and 2014. Panamera sold around 5000 per year (in US)! There will be much more EV competition in a few years and in addition many people who bought a new model s will have a more mature secondary market to choose from (lots of people on this forum state it is the most expensive car they have ever bought, and I am sure a good proportion of those would of bought used if feasible). I really truly believe the key to success is model 3 ASAP, with a model 3 variant (wagon, convertible etc) coming available every 1-2 years. I think the pressure and speed with which the gigafactory is being built out, underlies my hypothesis.
edit:
oh yeah, so to relate this to the topic, where are the cars coming from then. model 3 and its variants will outsell the x/s by a much wider margin than people are expecting. I would not be surprised to see 10 model 3's sold for every s or x.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Batch manufacturing will be necessary to get to 500k Model 3s per year.
But not dealerships.
If Tesla was planning on Dealerships by 2017 they would not be fighting so hard to avoid them in 2015. Like lobbying in Texas.
With consistent regular shipments of standard popular trim levels you can manage sales where you have a batch of people waiting a few days maybe a week as a new batch of cars arrives. The sales staff can nudge people to unsold inventory; "You can have this car by Tuesday but if you want that slight variation you have to wait 6 weeks" etc.
But not dealerships.
If Tesla was planning on Dealerships by 2017 they would not be fighting so hard to avoid them in 2015. Like lobbying in Texas.
With consistent regular shipments of standard popular trim levels you can manage sales where you have a batch of people waiting a few days maybe a week as a new batch of cars arrives. The sales staff can nudge people to unsold inventory; "You can have this car by Tuesday but if you want that slight variation you have to wait 6 weeks" etc.
I agree with Robert.Boston and RobStark, batch manufacturing will be needed. I think the demand and "pre-order" for the mdoel 3 will make this relatively easy though. I do not think they will need inventory, but feel the order online and wait 6 weeks will become the normal and not minded by the average consumer. This forum I feel might have a bit of a bias, and people probably change cars more frequently than the general public. 6 weeks in terms of a 4 year lease is not a big deal. If the batch manufacturing requires more than 12 weeks advance purchase though, I would change my tune and think there would be implications to that.
Phil Seastrand
Member
To the best of my knowledge, BMW manufactures strictly to order. It's just that the dealers are placing the orders, not customers in most cases. BMW allocates production to each dealer months in advance and then the dealer orders specific configurations based upon their anticipated customer demand. When I bought my M5 back in 2001, I was called mid 2000 and told that my allocation had come up from BMW and I was allowed to configure exactly what I wanted. My impression was that I could have ordered any BMW this way, as long as I was willing to wait for it to be built and, unfortunately, pay MSRP for the privilege.
I see no reason why Tesla can't continue to build to order at any volumes, as long as the customers are willing to wait for delivery. I also see no reason why each Tesla showroom couldn't pre-order "common" configurations and stock them at the local showroom if this helps with the wait.
I see no reason why Tesla can't continue to build to order at any volumes, as long as the customers are willing to wait for delivery. I also see no reason why each Tesla showroom couldn't pre-order "common" configurations and stock them at the local showroom if this helps with the wait.
This is where I think Tesla can do better than the dealership model. There's no reason for each location to have inventory--in fact, most very little space to hold inventory. But if Tesla holds an inventory of common configurations in a handful of regional warehouses, it can deploy that inventory much more efficiently than dealers, who have to hold their own inventory or negotiate with other dealers.
But as was pointed out, as long as demand exceeds production capacity, such tactics won't be needed.
The two things (build for inventory, and using dealers) are orthogonal. They can still do one without the other.
At the end of the day this would accomplish the same results - that is let the factory build batches of common configurations months in advance of the actual sale. For BMW the dealers take on the inventory risk. If Tesla has dealers that would work, otherwise they would need to do it themselves (pick the configurations and hold the inventory)
Anyway, Tesla Motors has made good progress in the last few years, and the guidance for 2015 (55,000) is also a firm step in the right direction.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
They could but at less efficient rates than mass manufactures.
It takes Tesla on average 5 days to build a Model S.
It takes Toyota 20 hrs to build a Camry.
"We" would like the Model 3 to compete with fully loaded Camry, Accord, Fusion, Malibu etc.
Currently and in the next few years the annual total number of Tesla Model S deliveries is increasing year over year.
But how long will that continue?
The availability of new and cheaper Tesla models will have its impact on the demand for the Tesla Model S at some point in time.
Will it plateau or shall there even be a decline at some point in time?
But how long will that continue?
The availability of new and cheaper Tesla models will have its impact on the demand for the Tesla Model S at some point in time.
Will it plateau or shall there even be a decline at some point in time?
chickensevil
Active Member
I think it is more likely that it will peak and trend similar to how the other luxury cars do as opposed to really seriously cannibalize from itself.
For example the MB S Class had the following sales WW:
5th Gen W221
85,900 ('06)
85,500 ('07)
90,600 ('08)
53,400 ('09)
66,500 ('10)
68,969 ('11)
65,128 ('12)
(I don't have 2013 data)
6th Gen W222
103.737 ('14)
BMW 7 Series:
4th Gen E65
2001 32,749
2002 53,504
2003 57,899
2004 47,689
2005 50,062
2006 50,227
2007 44,421
2008 38,835
5th Gen F01/F02
2009 52,680
2010 65,814
2011 68,774
2012 59,184
2013 56,001
And just for kicks I thought it would be great to show Audi sales since they have filled in some gaps over the years adding an A7 and A5 into their lineup more recently so you can see the "potential" for cannibalize within the brand
| A1 | A2 | A3 | A4 | A5 | A6 | A7 | A8 | Q3 | Q5 | Q7 | TT | R8 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | — | — | 143,974 | 271,152 | — | 174,867 | — | 15,355 | — | — | — | 13,682 | — |
| 1999 | — | — | 143,505 | 252,514 | — | 162,573 | — | 14,636 | — | — | — | 52,579 | — |
| 2000 | — | 32,164 | 136,141 | 231,869 | — | 180,715 | — | 12,894 | — | — | — | 56,776 | — |
| 2001 | — | 49,369 | 131,082 | 308,778 | — | 186,467 | — | 11,708 | — | — | — | 39,349 | — |
| 2002 | — | 37,578 | 125,538 | 360,267 | — | 178,773 | — | 10,942 | — | — | — | 34,711 | — |
| 2003 | — | 27,323 | 159,417 | 353,836 | — | 168,612 | — | 21,748 | — | — | — | 32,337 | — |
| 2004 | — | 19,745 | 181,274 | 345,231 | — | 195,529 | — | 22,429 | — | — | — | 23,605 | — |
| 2005 | — | 10,026 | 224,961 | 337,705 | — | 215,437 | — | 21,515 | — | — | 1,185 | 12,307 | — |
| 2006 | — | — | 231,752 | 341,110 | 487 | 229,021 | — | 22,468 | — | — | 72,169 | 23,675 | 164 |
| 2007 | — | — | 231,117 | 289,806 | 25,549 | 243,842 | — | 22,182 | — | 162 | 77,395 | 56,766 | 4,125 |
| 2008 | — | — | 222,164 | 378,885 | 57,650 | 214,074 | — | 20,140 | — | 20,324 | 59,008 | 41,789 | 5,656 |
| 2009 | — | — | 206,747 | 282,033 | 84,883 | 182,090 | — | 8,599 | — | 105,074 | 27,929 | 22,821 | 2,101 |
| 2010 | 51,937 | — | 198,974 | 306,291 | 111,270 | 211,256 | 8,496 | 22,435 | — | 154,604 | 48,937 | 26,217 | 3,485 |
| 2011 | 117,566 | — | 189,068 | 321,045 | 111,758 | 241,862 | 37,301 | 38,542 | 19,613 | 183,678 | 53,703 | 25,508 | 3,551 |
| 2012 | 123,111 | — | 164,666 | 329,759 | 103,357 | 284,888 | 28,950 | 35,932 | 106,918 | 209,799 | 54,558 | 21,880 | 2,241 |
So to me, this speaks volumes because price wise they line up so A3 is 30k, A4 is 35k (Model 3 price), A5 is 40k, A6 is 45k, A7 is 65k, and A8 is 77k (Model S)
So even adding in the A7 to the sales data, there was pretty decent growth in their A8 sales for 2011 and 2012 AND the A6 sales ALSO grew Y/Y during the same introduction period for the A7. So not only did they get an additional sales growth by introducing that model, but it had no noticeable impact on the surrounding models. If anything it helped to address a broader audience and pull in more sales.
Bottom line, I would suggest that the increased visibility of more Teslas on the road is going to boost sales of both the Model 3 and Model S regardless of people potentially cross-shopping between the two models (I would actually think that MX vs MS would be more likely to cause an impact than from the Model 3 to MS... but even then, I would think that the added visibility and establishment of Tesla as a real manufacturer would increase both... not hit them from one to the other.)
Note: All data was pulled from Wikipedia
The first full year production of the Tesla Model X will be 2016.
Is it possible that the total number of Tesla Model X deliveries in 2016 will be higher than the total number of Tesla Model S deliveries in 2016?
I believe that will be the case in the US unless Tesla runs into some unforeseen production problems with the S.
I do not believe that will be the case in Europe. As to China, I have no idea. Maybe.
I actually meant to say:
Is it possible that (already in the first full year of production of the Tesla Model X) the global annual total number of Tesla Model X deliveries in 2016 will be higher than the global annual total number of Tesla Model S deliveries in 2016?
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