adiggs
Well-Known Member
I actually meant to say:
Is it possible that (already in the first full year of production of the Tesla Model X) the global annual total number of Tesla Model X deliveries in 2016 will be higher than the global annual total number of Tesla Model S deliveries in 2016?
My own belief, though it isn't necessary for my investment hypothesis, is that it is INDEED possible for Model X volume to exceed Model S volume in it's first full year of production. Or maybe to be more accurate in my terminology, for Model X demand to exceed Model S demand (actually built vehicles might be different). The core of this belief is drawn from the efficiency dynamic of Model X and S.
With Model S at ~90 mpge, I'm expecting Model X to be ~80 mpge. I think that's actually low - that the difference in the two won't be that large, but even with a pessimistic view of the difference in efficiency, that translates into Model X being one of the most efficient vehicles on the road, or any class or size of car. There will be motorcycles running around that are less efficient than Model X.
For buyers of cars, if you're in the market for a car / SUV / wagon of approximately a Model S or X size, I believe that a whole bunch of people will treat the 2 cars as functionally the same for efficiency, and functionally the same for their footprint (handling in parking lots, garage space consumed, ease of parking on the street, etc..). And if the two are "the same", then why not get the car with bigger interior dimensions and that can seat a full 7 people? Not saying that is a 100% choice, but only that it's a compelling enough thought process that it turns the typical thinking about SUV on it's head (that you'd like a bigger car, but it carries such an outrageously bigger fuel bill that you settle for something smaller).