Elon Musk: A future worth getting excited about

[Adopado]

Have you used AP in Mways recently? Phantom braking is pretty much gone, and there is zero lurching in lane of any kind.

I'm a rare user of AP, mainly because I'm also a rare user of motorways ... but at the end of last week I had the opportunity again. Things felt a little smoother in terms of matching speed to other vehicles (though still not "human smooth"). My biggest disappointment was in relation to passing HGVs ... no major scares but simply passing unnecessarily close. I thought I had read on here that the car should move a little to the right within your lane (when traffic allows) when passing large vehicles ... when driving I always shift a few inches to the right in my lane if there's nobody in the outside lane. AP makes me feel I am just skimming the sides of the trucks and glancing at the screen also shows no attempt being made by the car to reposition in its lane. If I used the feature enough I would probably trust it more but if I was being driven by another person in the same way I wouldn't be impressed!

 

[WannabeOwner]

punts out misleading quarterly safety stats

I agree the figures are not useful "stand alone"

But assuming the same metrics, each time they are published, then if Tesla's figures are impr0oving over time, when compared with themselves, I think that is A Good Thing. Provided that that does mean that "AP is being used mostly on dual carriageway in good weather" and also that the accident rate for that Stat has improved.

 

[WannabeOwner]

Still brakes for motorway bridges from time-to-time

I've never had that. I occasionally get phantom braking passing a juggernaut. The same big, white, trailer as all the other ones I have passed without incident. No explanation for "why" for the ones the car is terrified of.

All my long journeys are in the MS, so my AP experience is in that.

I wonder if there is any difference between MS / M3 in terms of what objects cause phantom braking ?

 

[GeorgeSymonds]

I agree the figures are not useful "stand alone"

But assuming the same metrics, each time they are published, then if Tesla's figures are impr0oving over time, when compared with themselves, I think that is A Good Thing. Provided that that does mean that "AP is being used mostly on dual carriageway in good weather" and also that the accident rate for that Stat has improved.

Agree, except the chart in the link I posted plots them over time and they don't seem to be improving.

No data out for 2022, but Q1 & Q2 in 2021 look worse than the same quarters im 2020, Q3 looks a bit better, and while Q4 looks much better, Q4 2020 was particularily bad, and the Q4 21 figure was worse than other 3 in 2020 (maybe thats weather, but I'd have thought the worst months were Jan and Feb rather than Dec for winter if we think its seasonal). I'd hope we can agree its not a leaps and bounds change over the last couple of years, and maybe why they need dojo, getting rid of the radar and almost restarting the learning as they may have hit a plateau.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

An interesting interview with Elon Musk: Talks about Tesla growth, FSD, robots, and much more...
Will FSD be here within the year??

A future worth getting excited about

What's on Elon Musk's mind? In conversation with head of TED Chris Anderson, Musk details how the radical new innovations he's working on -- Tesla's intelligent humanoid robot Optimus, SpaceX's otherworldly Starship and Neuralink's brain-machine interfaces, among others -- could help maximize...

www.ted.com

TLDW: Musk's companies continue to try to do stuff.

 

[WannabeOwner]

I'd hope we can agree its not a leaps and bounds change over the last couple of years

Agreed, but personally I would be very happy with "steady improvement"

I'm no statistician, but I plotted them by quarter (assuming I read the numbers correctly) and they look flat-ish 2020-2021 (except Q4 as you said, which appears to have caught up with the others), but 1/3rd ?? better than when Tesla started publishing the numbers (assuming THAT isn't fishy!)

 

[Dilly]

I believe that full FSD is achievable though not any time soon.
I doubt that the hardware in my car will remain capable of supporting the weight of software change that will take place in years to come.
I imagine that the ‘full’ package will end up only working on ‘newer’ cars

 

[Sparkeur]

I've never had that. I occasionally get phantom braking passing a juggernaut.

Those wot know suggest that it is the shadow of the bridge on the road rather than the bridge itself. Depending on the time of day, the shadow can be quite dark. The juggernaut thing is normally caused by the truck drifting (sometimes quite imperceptibly) towards the white line between you and it. Worth hitting the horn afterwards and checking your dashcam as it will show up there.

 

[Zilla91]

Will FSD be here within the year??

It's more likely I’ll win the EuroMillions jackpot within the year.

 

[WannabeOwner]

Those wot know suggest that it is the shadow of the bridge on the road rather than the bridge itself. Depending on the time of day, the shadow can be quite dark. The juggernaut thing is normally caused by the truck drifting (sometimes quite imperceptibly) towards the white line between you and it. Worth hitting the horn afterwards and checking your dashcam as it will show up there.

makes sense. I'll press the "Dashcam grab it" button next time it happens and double check.

My, subjective, recollection is that when this has happened the Juggernaut was well into its lane ... however, it might have been moving towards me, albeit not threateningly.

I have had the car move over when someone has moved towards me (although I don't remember a lorry ever doing that ... professional drivers so less likely than a Twit I expect ... but)

 

[WannabeOwner]

It's more likely I’ll win the EuroMillions jackpot within the year.

I'd like to hedge ... can you publish your numbers please?

 

[gangzoom]

L

Yesterday I drove for miles on single track roads in rural Wales. When you meet an oncoming car one of you has to reverse, sometimes for quite some distance, to the last small passing place so you can squeeze past each other.

Not the same, but 'yielding' logic in FSD beta already seems pretty impressive. The only way FSD can develop for the situations you are wanting is for European/UK testing to start properly, which hopefully will be this year.

 

[gangzoom]

I wonder if there is any difference between MS / M3 in terms of what objects cause phantom braking ?

Are all Model 3s now 'vision' based only? Loads of noise about Phantom braking on the US forums when Tesla first moved to vision only, which seems to have no improved.

About 2 years ago I remeber my wife pretty much banned me from using AP on road trips because of phantom braking, but now it's on all the time, and she uses it as an excuse to now never offering to 'drive' any leg on family road trips .

The FSD beta stack/tech really does seem like the next level. The 'unfiled' stack hopefully is coming, but again in non-US areas I suspect there will be another 12 months+ delay before its pushed out fleet wide .