Elon Musk Confirms Tesla Full Self-Driving Subscriptions Coming Early 2021

[AdamMacDon]

The difference between us is that I am presuming a private sale where the value of FSD is preserved while you appear to be presuming a resale back to Tesla where the FSD value is heavilly discounted in proportion to the uptake by the next buyer

Oh my bad, I thought we were discussing the subscription pricing, in which case, resale price is wholly irrelevant. Even if you buy FSD outright, it is still a very big question mark of whether that will transfer over, and exactly how much of the value carries over. We've all seen the stories of people buying FSD post-delivery, and having it NOT transfer to the next owner. Even assuming this doesn't happen, car options historically depreciate fairly hard, although this could be an exception.

Back to the topic of FSD subscriptions, I'm having trouble imagining a lot of people lining up to pay hundreds of dollars per month for it with the current functionality. Especially if they regularly commute in the city. So if Tesla end up making it say $20-$50 a month, you are going to witness a big uproar from the people who just forked out $10,000 for it, and are now having a really hard time calculating how they are getting that value back. Or would that just be a price of early access admission for those unfortunate few? This last hypothetical has been the main reason I have not yet purchased FSD.

 

[Dan D.]

FSD can legally be used because it is still Level 2. FSD just means that the car is able to perform the additional maneuvers needed for all driving.

Has FSD been sold as anything other than Level 2? Are thousands of people expecting their cars to be fully hands-free totally. Has it specifically been stated what the end goal is, or are people just reading in to the marketing hype.

If I'm gathering the consensus here, it's that when(?) FSD is complete you will have to remain fully responsible and alert the entire time. If Tesla is going to claim Level 2 and offer no liability, is that going to be a problem for the people who believed it was going to drive itself?

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Has FSD been sold as anything other than Level 2? Are thousands of people expecting their cars to be fully hands-free totally. Has it specifically been stated what the end goal is, or are people just reading in to the marketing hype.

If I'm gathering the consensus here, it's that when(?) FSD is complete you will have to remain fully responsible and alert the entire time. If Tesla is going to claim Level 2 and offer no liability, is that going to be a problem for the people who believed it was going to drive itself?

I just mean that when Tesla opens up FSD as a production release it will be Level 2. Going higher level with "subject to regulatory approval" is really a smokescreen for "it's not good enough to use without monitoring".

However, remember that a Level 2 system can be used as Level 4 as long as the police don't catch you.

 

[Dan D.]

I just mean that when Tesla opens up FSD as a production release it will be Level 2. Going higher level with "subject to regulatory approval" is really a smokescreen for "it's not good enough to use without monitoring".

However, remember that a Level 2 system can be used as Level 4 as long as the police don't catch you.

Ok, but let's say that Level 4 regulations exist the day after FSD is 'released' from Beta. Let's imagine there ARE regulations and in theory Tesla meets those regulations for Level 4.
How will it be classified by Tesla? Will it still be considered Level 2? What if it is never (in a few years) considered higher than Level 2. Sure, it MAY work for Level 4 but has it ever been sold under the specific promise of Level 3,4, or 5? If it is only ever Level 2 legally is that a problem for people?
Or are people just taking the words full self driving and applying their own desires to it?

I'm not interested in people misusing the tech - though that is inevitable in everything, but whether it has ever been promised in writing as fulfilling Level 3,4, or 5? Just out of curiosity.

 

[BigNick]

I would never in a million years pay outright for FSD, but I may be willing to try it for a few months or on and off for road trips if that were an option. I don't need it most of the time.

Like paying for HBO only when Game of Thrones was airing new episodes.

 

[BigNick]

I agree -- waay too low.

My WAG is that rental will be 3-4x the cost of purchase.
If purchase is 10k USD for 15 year car lifetime the monthly is ~ $55. Rental would then be ~ $200 a month.

I personally am not an FSD fan for my routine driving but I would happily pay $200 to have AP on an extended road trip.

I predict between $100 and $250 monthly. $250/monthly = $3K/year which would provide an advantage to outright purchase after break-even at 3 years and 4 months. $100/monthly = $1200/year which would only break even after 8 years and 4 months.

It all depends on how/if Tesla wants to steer buyers. If they want to direct buyers toward the $10K "lifetime" purchase, they'll have a much higher monthly subscription fee, probably the $200 to $250.

 

[david_tsmc]

I predict between $100 and $250 monthly. $250/monthly = $3K/year which would provide an advantage to outright purchase after break-even at 3 years and 4 months. $100/monthly = $1200/year which would only break even after 8 years and 4 months.

It all depends on how/if Tesla wants to steer buyers. If they want to direct buyers toward the $10K "lifetime" purchase, they'll have a much higher monthly subscription fee, probably the $200 to $250.

I am sure this will be bait and switch to get more beta testers now, improve the NN, then increase the price as it matures. Remember this is a subscription model so your price is not locked in. Software 2.0 also needs lots of data to train and cover the long tail.

 

[EVNow]

I am sure this will be bait and switch to get more beta testers now, improve the NN, then increase the price as it matures. Remember this is a subscription model so your price is not locked in. Software 2.0 also needs lots of data to train and cover the long tail.

As I wrote before, they will increase the subscription price. But its not bait & switch - this is the officially stated policy ! If you want a freeze on the price, you buy it instead of subscribing.

 

[patnshan]

There is a large “untapped” group of people who will never spend $10k on this. I am one of them. These folks will remain untapped in terms of giving more money to Tesla unless the subscription is reasonably priced and makes sense to them to make the jump. Elon simply saying it’s worth it, isn’t enough.
I’d probably try the sub if it were $200 or less, although I’d prefer a a la carte auto lane change as I care zero about anything else in the FSD package. It’ll be interesting to see what they do.

 

[El joe]

Like paying for HBO only when Game of Thrones was airing new episodes.

Best and most relatable analogy ever.

 

[El joe]

There is a large “untapped” group of people who will never spend $10k on this. I am one of them. These folks will remain untapped in terms of giving more money to Tesla unless the subscription is reasonably priced and makes sense to them to make the jump. Elon simply saying it’s worth it, isn’t enough.
I’d probably try the sub if it were $200 or less, although I’d prefer a a la carte auto lane change as I care zero about anything else in the FSD package. It’ll be interesting to see what they do.

It’s funny, $200/month seems like a lot to me though I’d probably be willing to try it (though I have EAP already). But someone paying $10k for FSD would’ve already put forth 50 months of payments for the hopes of one day getting it. I’d be pissed.

 

[teslick2]

I predict between $100 and $250 monthly. $250/monthly = $3K/year which would provide an advantage to outright purchase after break-even at 3 years and 4 months. $100/monthly = $1200/year which would only break even after 8 years and 4 months.

It all depends on how/if Tesla wants to steer buyers. If they want to direct buyers toward the $10K "lifetime" purchase, they'll have a much higher monthly subscription fee, probably the $200 to $250.

I agree that it will likely be a lot. However, the price difference in a lease is about $80/month if you include FSB. While a month to month services would likely cost more, I can’t picture many model 3 leases paying anymore than an extra $100-150 a month.

 

[Tiger]

I don't think Tesla being expected to cover the costs of an accident is realistic either. If they were covering the cost of the crashes AND making the cars, what exactly do you do? Clean the cars?

I plan to use FSD only when I'm not in the car (Autopilot when in car), for example it would take my kids to school and hobbies. No way would I accept that it's my liability if there is any kind of accident in such FSD scenario. If necessary, there needs to be a compulsory FSD insurance (or addition) which covers situations where FSD is liable.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Troy's spreadsheets show a large drop in FSD take rate when they raised the price to $10k. Backtracking to $6-7k would probably generate more sales dollars, but kills the narrative. Subscription recaptures the lost sales, and then some, while preserving the narrative.

Has FSD been sold as anything other than Level 2?

They originally sold FSD with the capability to summon your car from across town, or across the country. That's at least Level 4. Lawyers and accountants since intervened and they dialed the language way back. It's now a set of "features" (aka parlor tricks), with no promise whatsoever of unattended operation or any benefits associated with Level 3/4/5.

 

[JBT66]

They have needed a try before you buy forever. No way I’m spending 10K on something with such hot and cold reviews as FSD. Especially on my now over 2 year old car. I might be one of those folks who love it, but it’s a big risk. I still want to know if they’ll just ignore folks with hardware 2.5 and older, or offer some type of hardware upgrade.

 

[AdamMacDon]

They have needed a try before you buy forever. No way I’m spending 10K on something with such hot and cold reviews as FSD. Especially on my now over 2 year old car. I might be one of those folks who love it, but it’s a big risk. I still want to know if they’ll just ignore folks with hardware 2.5 and older, or offer some type of hardware upgrade.

It's not really a great trial, but I'm pretty sure you have 2 days to refund the purchase.

 

[boonedocks]

They have needed a try before you buy forever. No way I’m spending 10K on something with such hot and cold reviews as FSD. Especially on my now over 2 year old car. I might be one of those folks who love it, but it’s a big risk. I still want to know if they’ll just ignore folks with hardware 2.5 and older, or offer some type of hardware upgrade.

That’s because if you tried it as is you would never pay $10k for it!!!!

 

[CapeOne]

I agree that it will likely be a lot. However, the price difference in a lease is about $80/month if you include FSB. While a month to month services would likely cost more, I can’t picture many model 3 leases paying anymore than an extra $100-150 a month.

I think your lease number is too low. Adding FSD ($10k) to a typical Tesla 36 month lease would increase the monthly payment by around $140 to $160 or so depending on model.

 

[M0rpH3x]

For me the subscription is an interesting way of upgrading to HW3, so dashcam and other features can be enabled in MCU1 cars. I don't know if they will perform the upgrade or if they'll only allow subscriptions for cars with HW3 already installed, but given that Tesla is trying very hard to reduce their codebase, I would say it makes sense.

 

[FredMertz]

Unless they offer a discounted price for FSD before you pick up the car, why would anyone buy FSD without trying it on subscription?