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Elon Musk:"Copy us, or join us". This is important for the global revolution of EV's.

Discussion in 'Tesla Motors' started by Benz, Jun 1, 2013.

  1. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    I was listening to the Conference Call of the Supercharger announcement, and when Elon Musk said:"Copy us, or join us", I immediately felt that this particular message just might prove to be very important for the global revolution of EV's in general.

    But why? Because it just is the best charging technique that is available.
    So, how will this be put in practise?
    How will other car manufacturers react to this message?

    I think that the Tesla Motors Supercharger technique will become the standard charging technique (worldwide) for most of the EV's produced by most of the car manufacturers. And the adoption of the Tesla Motors Supercharger technique by other car manufacturers will start a few years fromm now (before 2020).

    That's my guess. And I would like to know other people's opinions on this subject. Feel free to post your thoughts in this thread. But please stick to the subject. Thanks and cheers.
     
  2. PeterW

    PeterW Member

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    I think Daimler and Toyota will be the first to join Tesla. Possibly using Tesla battery packs.
     
  3. callmesam

    callmesam Member

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    A single carmaker will capitulate to Tesla and start partnering with them for powertrains and Supercharging. Daimler is the most likely candidate.

    If this happens, then a Mercedes customer will have the option (like the 60kw's do) to pay $2000 to "join" the network.
     
  4. Darko

    Darko Member

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    #4 Darko, Jun 1, 2013
    Last edited: Jun 1, 2013
    Given your post this is a timely article:

    What Do Toyota And Mercedes See In Tesla? A Bit Of Themselves - Forbes

    Daimler and Toyota supporting Tesla was likely a way for them to hedge their bets, but now they realize how hard it will be to create their own proprietary systems and networks. I suspect a couple of others may join, but another consortium of automakers may try to create a competing network similar to Tesla's, late as they will be.

    While Tesla's commitment to large battery pack seems ingenius as it allows the number of charging points to be reduced and feasible for long-distance trips, I do wonder that if the aluminum-air solution publicized by Phinergy several months ago is feasible (which Phinergy claimed a car company had contracted them to use beginning 2017*), a company might be able to forgo a large battery and the whole charging network for long range, and could produce a low-priced alternative to Tesla (think the Leaf without range anxiety). Of course the car wouldn't be nearly as compelling because for one the larger battery not only allows a longer range but faster acceleration (power), but it could be a viable alternative.

    Anyway, that is the one solution I see that might produce a competent alternative to Tesla's - haven't been able to come up with any others, not until rechargeable batteries improve in energy density/cost/recharge time by a full order of magnitude to make the density of Tesla's recharging network unnecessary. Plug-in hybrids I don't think have any future beyond the short term, say 5 years - beyond that and the complexity of building parallel EV and ICE systems into one car will not be financially competitive.

    Nevertheless, it seems like a good bet that Tesla will become the standard that many or all eventually join.



    *update: actually, just did a search and at least one article claims it's Nissan/Renault who have signed a contract with Phinergy, so a Leaf w/o range anxiety it appears will become a reality, albeit not until 2017:

    New Battery Made By Israel-Based Energy Startup Phinergy Can Power A Car For 1,000 Miles, Farther Than Typical Electric Cars
     
  5. NuclearPowered

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    Why 2000? People are getting stuck on that number when referring to other manufacturers buying into network access. The SC network brings more value to EV travel than $2000 and Tesla should charge accordingly.


    Sent from my XT907 using Tapatalk 2
     
  6. xhawk101

    xhawk101 Active Member

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    Agree - annual fee which would over time have more revenue than 2k one time fee.


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD
     
  7. aronth5

    aronth5 Long Time Follower

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    Or why not a one time fee and than a usage for anyone who does not own a Tesla? No reason it has to be $2k. Much like a service plan you could have two or more options. Higher up front provides unlimited supercharging or lower initial fee and then pay as you go. Lots of options.
     
  8. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    This thread had been started about another -much more strategic- topic: "the global revolution of EV's in general".

    And Tesla Motors has been founded to accelerate (the pace towards) the world's transition to electric mobility.

    Can this goal be achieved by just one car manufacturer (Tesla Motors)? Theoretically yes, but that would be at a much slower pace. Therefore, if a (large) number of car manufacturers would follow Tesla Motors, then the goal could be achieved at a much faster pace, for sure.

    At the moment the Tesla Model S is the only EV that can be charged at the Supercharger network. All the other current/existing EV's cannot be charged at the Supercharger network.

    If we would just consider Elon Musk's statement ("Copy us, or join us") as a strategic step towards the world's transition to electric mobility, then we might be able to think about how the future of EV's is going to look like.

    I have a few questions:
    1. How are other manufacturers going to react to the inevitable success of Tesla Motors?
    2. What options will they have?
    3. Which option whill they choose?

    The answers to these three questions will give us a glimpse into the future of EV's, I think.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I think that we should always keep in mind that Elon Musk is showing us (consumers) the right path. And a great many (business) people on this planet do not want Elon Musk to show us the right path, in fact they are boiling inside from anger because this path just happens to be bad for the future prospects of their (personal) businesses.

    A number of these business people will stubborn. They will neglect Tesla Motors and EV's in general, and they will not react to the success of Tesla Motors. Their businesses are going to end, eventually.

    Some car manufacturers are going to react to the sucess of Tesla Motors. They will understand that they were wrong (in the past) not to have believed in the future of EV's. These car manufacturers are going to survive and evolve themselves into EV manufacturers. But the main question remains: will they choose to copy Tesla Motors, or will they choose to join Tesla Motors?

    I think that both situations are going to occur (maybe not at the same time). Some will choose to copy Tesla Motors, and some will choose to join Tesla Motors.

    Any thoughts on that?
     
  9. callmesam

    callmesam Member

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    1. Other manufacturers will be able to do NOTHING (for the most part). They will continue to rely on hybrids and ICE cars. Their market share will shrink. In five years, they will realize that they have to compete in the electric space, but it will be too late. Tesla will be a major player, selling 1,000,000 cars worldwide.

    Likely that Mercedes (that has the LEAST amount of EV experience) will partner with Tesla and continue to pay for powertrains AND buy Supercharger access for their EVs, which will become a huge revenue source for Tesla.

    2. Other automakers will continue to jawbone natural gas, hydrogen, hybrids and diesel, which likely will NEVER amount to anything.

    3. Most automakers will see their margins and market share shrink, and NEW automakers beyond Tesla (like BYD, Kandi) will take over foreign markets in China and Asia.

    A few existing automakers see the writing on the wall and will cut a deal. Tesla's technology is at least 4-5 years ahead of their very best competitor and by the time that battery prices are such that anyone can make a good EV, Tesla will be THE ultimate EV driving machine.
     
  10. mitch672

    mitch672 Active Member

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    I've posted this before, in several threads, Randy Carlson wrote this all up in his March "SuperCharging Tesla" article, he even calculates the net present (and future) value of a SuperCharger session, and he concludes, that SuperCharger access is how Tesla plans to "monetize" the replacement of the ICE

    Article: SuperCharging Tesla - Seeking Alpha
     
  11. tdelta1000

    tdelta1000 Active Member

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    I take that statement to be very profound. I think any other company that is willing to partner with TM should find it easy to do business with them because a majority of the hard work has been done by TM. I also think that Mr. Musk is giving his blessings follow TM's footsteps to move EVs forward.
     
  12. wycolo

    wycolo Active Member

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    > "Copy us, or join us" [Elon Musk]

    Have we seen any copies yet? I mean Chinese copies of the Tesla powertrain and other reverse-engineering rip offs. Isn't it about time for these things to start showing up?

    Lacking this, can TM become the drivetrain/control system producer for the entire auto industry, while continuing to build its own boutique models at the current very slow rate. Have the 'preconditions for takeoff' arrived?
    --
     
  13. Darko

    Darko Member

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    Read somewhere that separately german automakers and japanese automakers were trying to come to some agreement for a charging standard for their respective countries and possibly beyond, but whatever they've been discussing they probably now realize it's already obsolete compared to Tesla's technology.
     
  14. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    Could it be that Elon Musk has explicitly challenged other car manufacturers by saying: "Copy us, or join us"?

    Because he knows that they cannot copy the technology of Tesla Motors. So, that these other car manufacturers actually only have one option, which is to join Tesla Motors?
     
  15. GSP

    GSP Member

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    Other car manufacturers could copy Tesla, except for opening their own dealerships.

    Nissan has gone down the same road as Tesla, with CHAdeMo DC fast chargers, but not with a long range battery or Nissan owned DC fast chargers. Nissan and others could us 18650 cells to get max kWh for the money, but they just can't seem to break some psychological barrier to picking the best cells for the job and putting them in a car that can provide the customer the most value for the money.

    GSP
     
  16. callmesam

    callmesam Member

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    At shareholder's meeting, Elon says "We are not creating a walled garden." They WANT a partner to join them and pay them for the access.
     
  17. deonb

    deonb Active Member

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    Also interesting is that he did specifically mention that other companies will be asked to pay compensation (the have to share some of the cost).

    But he also said that he always want to be the case that the SuperCharger is free when you buy the car. "So as long as other manufacturers are willing to play with that same model, we're open to them."

    So no pay-as-you-go program. Good.
     
  18. brianman

    brianman Burrito Founder

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    I was pleased to see that Elon understands completely how owners like me prefer this "pay once and then just use it" approach FAR more than any other option.
     
  19. elecblue

    elecblue Member

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    ah...1,000,000 in 5 years? Not a chance. Try 1,000,000 in maybe 15-20 years.
     
  20. djplong

    djplong Member

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    Speaking as someone who pays over $200/mo in gas (at 30mpg) I have *no* problem with paying a one-time $2000 fee, buried in the cost of my car, for lifetime SuperCharger access for free. Of course I'll be charging my hypothetical Gen III at home almost all the time but driving NH to Philly to visit my older daughter, or going to Cape Cod, the mountains, the beach - wherever - without worry? Yeah. I'll pay that.
     

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