Elon Musk explains the delay for Tesla’s autonomous coast-to-coast trip

[conman]

Elon Musk explains the delay for Tesla's autonomous coast-to-coast trip

It terrifies me that Elon Musk's prediction once again gives us 3 months likely, 6 months definitely. They're the same set of dates that mean "it could be years away" now after the last time he predicted that for FSD features a year ago.

 

[croman]

Elon Musk explains the delay for Tesla's autonomous coast-to-coast trip

It terrifies me that Elon Musk's prediction once again gives us 3 months likely, 6 months definitely. They're the same set of dates that mean "it could be years away" now after the last time he predicted that for FSD features a year ago.

Explains really doesn't do justice to the F'in Word Salad that often comes from Tesla and Musk's mouth when it describes what is going on with AP development.

 

[conman]

Maybe he's wearing too many hats and has confused SpaceX and Tesla and thinks he's talking about the next Falcon Heavy launch which actually is due in 3 months maybe, 6 months definitely?

 

[pilotSteve]

Elon Musk explains the delay for Tesla's autonomous coast-to-coast trip

It terrifies me that Elon Musk's prediction once again gives us 3 months likely, 6 months definitely. They're the same set of dates that mean "it could be years away" now after the last time he predicted that for FSD features a year ago.

....... drops mic.....

Again with the 3-6 months? Bogus bogus bogus. Boo Elon.

 

[Electroman]

Hey he is consistent. You can accuse him of changing stories or timelines.

Even if Tesla gets it after 5 years, that is still a big win for all of us.

 

[googleiscoul]

“I might be wrong” that quote really scared me...

 

[BerTX]

Won't we have to start getting reports of strange devices under tarps at Superchargers across the country as they install automated Supercharging hardware? Or will they do something like have one on a truck that drives ahead to the next SC and is waiting? Isn't auto-charging a required piece of the whole thing?

 

[Eclectic]

Elon Musk explains the delay for Tesla's autonomous coast-to-coast trip

It terrifies me that Elon Musk's prediction once again gives us 3 months likely, 6 months definitely. They're the same set of dates that mean "it could be years away" now after the last time he predicted that for FSD features a year ago.

Will this happen before or after he delivers the onramp to offramp capability he promised when the P85D was introduced?

 

[R.S]

Won't we have to start getting reports of strange devices under tarps at Superchargers across the country as they install automated Supercharging hardware? Or will they do something like have one on a truck that drives ahead to the next SC and is waiting? Isn't auto-charging a required piece of the whole thing?

Could be, but I guess it would be enough to have the driver plug the car in for now. Maybe if they had one of them automated, or showed the automated chargers in concept, that would be even cooler.

But I doubt they will install one automated charging cable at each stall along the way, that would then just stay there until regular cars become autonomous, too. Because until then those aren't really useful, but probably not very cheap to build and maintain, at least compared to a regular cable.

 

[1208]

The more I read Tesla's Self driving approach the more logical it sounds and the better it is compared to Googles lidar. Especially the AI part.

In fact the path of the others seem sheer folly in comparison to Tesla's cameras, radar and AI.

The others are the self driving version of Fuel Cells.

 

[cwerdna]

The more I read Tesla's Self driving approach the more logical it sounds and the better it is compared to Googles lidar. Especially the AI part.

In fact the path of the others seem sheer folly in comparison to Tesla's cameras, radar and AI.

LOL. Take a look at Waymo's safety report mentioned at Autonomous Car Progress. I've only had time to skim it myself.

Take a look at the disengagement reports for Tesla vs. Google/Waymo at Testing of Autonomous Vehicles for 2015 to 2017, in particular the # of autonomous miles driven and the disengagement rate. And look at the other efforts that Waymo (e.g. Autonomous Car Progress) and other automakers have shown off or been doing for many years in that thread (e.g. Nissan (who isn't in the lead by any stretch) and GM's Cruise Automation have taken the media on drives of autonomous vehicles).

Also, remember that Tesla's HQ is in SF Bay Area and that there's a large concentration of software engineering talent in Silicon Valley.

 

[conman]

Won't we have to start getting reports of strange devices under tarps at Superchargers across the country as they install automated Supercharging hardware? Or will they do something like have one on a truck that drives ahead to the next SC and is waiting? Isn't auto-charging a required piece of the whole thing?

Actually I read somewhere that charging doesn't count and the supervising non-driver is going to be plugging it in for the vehicles. Can't remember where I saw that quote though...

 

[R.S]

The more I read Tesla's Self driving approach the more logical it sounds and the better it is compared to Googles lidar. Especially the AI part.

In fact the path of the others seem sheer folly in comparison to Tesla's cameras, radar and AI.

The others are the self driving version of Fuel Cells.

Everyone uses AI and neural nets, those are state of the art when it comes to autonomous driving. And all use cameras, otherwise they wouldn't be able to read traffic signs, or traffic lights, for example. I guess everyone also uses radar.

The sensor suite for an autonomous Bolt looks like this:

• 14 cameras
• three articulating radars
• five lidars
• eight radars
• 10 ultra-short-range radars.

Tesla's AP2 uses:

• 8 cameras
• 1 radar
• 12 ultrasonic sensors

So not only do they also have LIDAR sensors, but also more cameras and more radar.

And even the idea of heavily relying on cameras isn't something invented by Tesla, an obscure company called MobileEye has been approaching the problem from this angle for quite some time now. But even they think LIDAR will be necessary for the information redundancy needed to get to FSD quickly.

 

[J1mbo]

The sensor suite for an autonomous Bolt looks like this:

• 14 cameras
• three articulating radars
• five lidars
• eight radars
• 10 ultra-short-range radars.

Not saying that Telsa's minimal approach is the answer, but honestly, this is supreme overkill... concisely justified below:

With safety as the company’s top priority for its automated driving system, GM has gone all out on what it intends to use as its first production application. Five Velodyne Puck lidar sensors adorn the roof (photo above), augmented by 14 cameras. In addition to eight static long-range radar units, the Bolt EV has three articulated medium-range radars. These can be swiveled around to provide a more complete view of the surrounding areas as the car maneuvers in tight quarters, just as a human driver would look over his or her shoulder while backing up.

Finally, GM developed new ultra-short-range radar sensors, 10 of which are fitted around the car. GM executive chief engineer Farah explained that ultrasonic sensors, like those used for park assist or for Tesla’s Autopilot, give far less detail about objects that are detected. Essentially, ultrasonic sensors have a hemispherical field of view and only indicate if an object is within that field—but not where. These new radar sensors can detect where objects are vertically and horizontally and how far away they are.

Source

Apparently, 8 LR radars, 10 SR radars, 14 cameras and 5 LIDAR are not capable of seeing where the car is going in tight maneuvers, so they chucked another 3 articulated MR radars into the mix. SMH

 

[R.S]

Not saying that Telsa's minimal approach is the answer, but honestly, this is supreme overkill... concisely justified below:



Source

Apparently, 8 LR radars, 10 SR radars, 14 cameras and 5 LIDAR are not capable of seeing where the car is going in tight maneuvers, so they chucked another 3 articulated MR radars into the mix. SMH

Well, a big part of the human brain is needed to provide sufficient vision and people still bump into other cars while parking. So a much more stupid computer should have all the information possible. Just like people nowadays prefer parking sensors and rear view cameras to park their cars. Even though the rear view mirrors and eyes should be good enough.

Sure, at some point reducing the amount of sensors, because of the capability of the SW totally makes sense, but that's still far away. And while LIDAR and such might be expensive right now, they will reduce in price with mass production and a shared autonomous vehicle should be profitable enough to have very expensive sensors, at least in the beginning.

 

[whitex]

Musk says a lot of meaningless things lately (last 3 years?). He told us in 2014 that AP1 will summon anywhere on private property, that the car "will just find you". Egg on the face, neh, AP1 is old news and nobody cares. AP2 will be the same, always 3-6 months away and then "who cares, we have AP3 now which will take a year to power up, etc, etc.". Had Elon made any actual commitments, like "I am extending everyone's bumper to bumper warranty until you can have your car drive you to work say up to 50 miles way, then drive itself home, then come pick you up", now that would be some news.

 

[gekcut]

Should be "photon" everywhere in quote, not "proton" as it is in some instances.

 

[Matias]

Should be "photon" everywhere in quote, not "proton" as it is in some instances.

My car doesn’t have driving lights, it has active photon emitters!

 

[mickey6]

EM's AP' statements have been "Over Promise & Under Deliver" - Does not look good or as POTUS would say "SAD!"

 

[whitex]

EM's AP' statements have been "Over Promise & Under Deliver" - Does not look good or as POTUS would say "SAD!"

Yea, but when you are under-delivering to a small group, the rest of the people can believe you delivered as promised. Go find some non-Tesla-owner technology enthusiasts, you'd be amazed what Elon has convinced them using very skilled media hype.