When Elon Musk announced the model Y, he claimed that it will outsell all the other Teslas combined. I can't see that happening. I don't even see that many Model Ys around, compared to the Model 3. I know the model 3 has been around longer, but do you actually see this happening? I find it hard to believe.
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Elon Musk: Model Y will outsell the Model S, X, and 3 COMBINED... really?
- Thread starter Singhman
- Start date
do you find it hard to believe because that's just your gut feeling, or do you have any data/anecdotes/that helps with your perspective?
Here are some numbers for you, some highlights below:
Here are some numbers for you, some highlights below:
- Q3 of 2020 Tesla produced 28,071 Model 3 for sale in USA (number reported to the NHSTA)
- Q3 of 2020 Tesla produced 29,216 Model Y for sale in USA (number reported to the NHSTA)
- Q4 of 2020 Tesla produced 18,920 of both Model S and X (this is a quarterly reported number by Tesla and represents global production)
The Rise of the Crossover: The segment that’s really driving the auto industry’s sales
I think that answers the question. The small crossover is rapidly becoming the most wanted vehicle platform.
I think that answers the question. The small crossover is rapidly becoming the most wanted vehicle platform.
Puma2020
Member
The Y may outsell all the other models in the US. Not sure about China. I doubt it for Europe because it is too large. European garages are small and the parking spaces are small. Big American cars do not fit well. I suspect the model 3 will sell better in Europe. I know the Y isn't that large but I have to be more careful pulling it into my standard sized garage. It fits but it seems slightly tighter going through the doorway. I suspect that the Cybertruck will outsell the Y in the US, if the pre-order numbers are to be believed.
I guess I was basing my opinion on just from what I see in the streets. Here in Vancouver Canada, I barely ever see a Model Y, but I see model 3s EVERYWHERE.
Now that I think of it, with the recent price drop due to the rear wheel drive version, the price gap between the model 3 and Y has drastically been reduced, so sales will likely ramp up.
Another reason I likely see so many model 3s in Canada could be due to the fact that it is eligible for the additional $5,000 Federal incentive, whereas the Model Y is not. For example: in Quebec the model 3 gets a $13,000 rebate with both provincial and federal incentives!
Now that I think of it, with the recent price drop due to the rear wheel drive version, the price gap between the model 3 and Y has drastically been reduced, so sales will likely ramp up.
Another reason I likely see so many model 3s in Canada could be due to the fact that it is eligible for the additional $5,000 Federal incentive, whereas the Model Y is not. For example: in Quebec the model 3 gets a $13,000 rebate with both provincial and federal incentives!
Huh? Model Y didn't go into production until March, 2020. Please clarify.
Opinion: I think the CyberTruck will be a colossal failure. The macho Ford/Chevy/Dodge wannabe cowboys won't be able to afford it.
You haven't been paying attention to the profile of truck prices. Work trucks are often the high end models because the tax advantage makes those options relatively inexpensive. Personal trucks are loaded with options for luxury and show -- that's why they are buying a truck. The person interested in a basic, cost-effective hauling machine is not buying a new stripped down F150, they are buying used.
Alex Philips
Marvelous!
Respect that is your opinion, but I'm in Texas and I see trucks running around that cost $60k, $70k, $80k everywhere. I actually own a nice truck and was looking at a new one for about $65k before I decided to just keep it and buy a Model Y AWD as a commuter vehicle. Wannabe cowboys spend the money on their trucks. I think the CyberTruck will do just fine...
Reminds me of a joke that helps explain the mentality... Ol' Texas boy was visiting with a guy from Georgia. Georgia guy was bragging about how much gold they had in Fort Knox. Said that they could build a three-foot-high wall all the way around Texas with all the Gold bars they had and would still have a bunch left. The Ol' Texas boy said... "Wow, that's really cool! You know what, why don't you go ahead and do that and if we like it, we'll buy it!"
oopw, Q4 of 2019. here is the quote from the article:
The NHTSA Light Vehicle Production reports indicate that Tesla only made 119 of its 2020 Model Ys in the fourth quarter of 2019 for sale in the US market-- but it made 29,216 of its 2020 Model Ys for customers here in the third quarter alone.
So yeah, looks like production started early.
Tesla Model Y VINs appear in NHTSA database ahead of deliveries - Electrek
LionelHutz
Member
Y has been in production for less than a year and I typically see at least three on the road during my 15 minute commute. It's becoming a hugely popular car here.
![angus[Y]oung](/tmc/data/avatars/l/141/141264.jpg?1620160343){kind=avatar}
angus[Y]oung
Active Member
@Singhman I definitely see 3's the most in the GVA. Lately I've been spotting quite a few Y though. It may soon overtake MX as the model I spot second-most. I'm going to start keeping track, for fun. I was watching colours recently and keeping count, and found that about 47% of all Teslas I see on the road are white, followed by black at about 25%, MSM at about 14%, blue at about 8%, and red at about 3%. As of today I'm switching gears and counting models instead. My quick errand this morning netted me two M3's, two MX's, one MS, and 1 MY.
Actually if you were comparing LR AWD M3 to LR AWD MY the price difference has never been that large. Of course if you were comparing SR+ M3 to LR AWD MY that gap is going to be noticeably larger.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
It's really simple
When Berlin and Texas start making Model Y but not Model 3 it'll be Model Y number one and Model 3 number two with the everyone else being further down than before.
Model Y will be coming out of four different factories before the end of 2021. At that time Model 3 will be coming out of two different factories.
Let me put it another way
factories producing Model Y = 4
factories producing Model 3 = 2
In 2022 the model Y lead will be enormous, they'll be producing at almost twice as many Model Y as model 3.
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Midnightsun
Active Member
RE size. The Model y compared to the 3 is very similar on the outside but the inside space difference is huge. 2.2" wider, 2.8" longer and 7.2" higher. I do not think 2.2. wider or less than 3" longer will make a difference to anyone because it became too big. Honestly feel the size and storage is perfect in all respects. model Y is just so much more practical in every way compared to the 3 and definitely much less cramped on the inside.
I will most likely upgrade to a newer model Y in the future but will wait for 1 piece castings both front and rear and by then there will probably be several new additions not to mention fit and finish should be top notch by then with maybe new tech batteries offering increase autonomy. So far just loving every aspect of the Y, my favorite ride of all time!
I will most likely upgrade to a newer model Y in the future but will wait for 1 piece castings both front and rear and by then there will probably be several new additions not to mention fit and finish should be top notch by then with maybe new tech batteries offering increase autonomy. So far just loving every aspect of the Y, my favorite ride of all time!
Y will do very well in Europe. It ticks nearly all the boxes for a family car, and it's the perfect size. With infinte resources, the LR RWD would totally dominate the market here, but I guess Tesla are constrained in quite a few ways - battery supply, service center capacity... even SC.. so we won't see that variant any time soon.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
in case text only doesn't paint the picture well enough @Singhman here are some graphs that might help visualize the world to come (note 2021 numbers are projections by James Stephenson aka https://twitter.com/ICannot_Enough )
basically, Model Y just hasn't been around long enough to pump out more than Model 3, but it will in 2022 aka Next Year.
2022 will be the year of the Model Y.
The fact that Tesla is battery limited makes it impossible to say how many vehicles of a particular model Tesla will sell.
Tesla could easily sell more Y's by adding variants that would attract other buyers. Like I'm not that into the Y because it's not that rugged looking. Sure maybe I could do some after market mods.
But, imagine a Rally Cross like Y.
Those would sell like hot cakes in the PNW where Subaru's are so dominant. The Y even in its current form is going to sell well because there isn't a real SUV EV from Tesla so the Y is the closest a person can get unless they jump ship to a different manufacture.
I'll probably jump to Rivian when FSD hits the wall, and there isn't any Tesla SUV options. But, that's a ways off and so many things can happen between now and then.
I think Tesla has a huge hole in their product offering for those of us like myself who want something more SUV (as in a Defender or Jeep) like than a Y, and not as massive as the CyberTruck.
Tesla could easily sell more Y's by adding variants that would attract other buyers. Like I'm not that into the Y because it's not that rugged looking. Sure maybe I could do some after market mods.
But, imagine a Rally Cross like Y.
Those would sell like hot cakes in the PNW where Subaru's are so dominant. The Y even in its current form is going to sell well because there isn't a real SUV EV from Tesla so the Y is the closest a person can get unless they jump ship to a different manufacture.
I'll probably jump to Rivian when FSD hits the wall, and there isn't any Tesla SUV options. But, that's a ways off and so many things can happen between now and then.
I think Tesla has a huge hole in their product offering for those of us like myself who want something more SUV (as in a Defender or Jeep) like than a Y, and not as massive as the CyberTruck.
