Elon Musk: Model Y will outsell the Model S, X, and 3 COMBINED... really?

[db93]

Living at a coastal community here in SoCal
See about 10 MYs each way on a short 10 mile commute to work
A lot of M3, MS, and MX as well, but those numbers seem stable compared to the growing number of MY around here

Data point of 1 yes

Love the way an M3 drives, but need the storage of the MY

 

[snpk]

Anybody here remember the Model Y reveal? The event itself was a dud and analysts blasted Elon for what a huge letdown it was. However, as time approached for Model Y deliveries to start and its capabilities became known, enthusiasm ramped and it's clear the car is a grand slam home run that will leave the 3 in the dust going forward. 2-3 years from now, it wouldn't surprise me if MY sales were near double M3.

Fast forward to the CT reveal. The reaction varied between muted and very negative. Over time, negativity has thawed and anticipation continues to grow. I have a feeling when final specs, features and capabilities of the CT are released, people will be blown away. F150s will look like weakfish and I expect CT to become #1 in the U.S. by 2025 or sooner.

Obviously the $25K Tesla will vault past everything. What a day that will be!

I agree.. but actually think MY sales will be closer to triple M3 sales. It's just what people want now. Small sedan vs. small SUV is really no contest at the moment. SUV's and trucks are what people want.

 

[spokey]

Agree. My opinion is that it always made sense. Whether if was my 260Z or '79 Datsun 510, or any of the other open rear vehicles, if you want to carry stuff a sedan trunk is not ideal. Doesn't matter whether you call it a station wagon, hatchback, or compact SUV, they're all the same idea and perennially a strong seller.

 

[9shots]

Yes, Model Y is a bit large for the European market, but the big difference is it has a hatch. Sedans like the Model 3 simply is not as popular there. Plus CUV/SUV sale are exploding there also.

The Dodge RAM pickup is a bit large for Europe. Model Y is perfect size.
Not every place in Europe is like those idyllic old touristic cities in Italy where the streets are perfect for horse carriages and too small for a normal sized car (eg BMW 3 series).

I expect the sales for the MY to be huge in Europe. A lot of people have been looking forward to it.

 

[Watts_Up]

I expect the sales for the MY to be huge in Europe. A lot of people have been looking forward to it.

The Model Y will be certainly a best seller, however for people living in cities with tight parking spots, it might be just a little bit too large.

In particular the turning circle needs to be improved, Bjørn Nyland has a video shown the hudge difference between the VW ID.4 and Tesla Model 3.

I think the Model 2 would be more the top seller, been both a little bit smaller and less expensive.

You have to think that in Europe, the VW Golf has been the #1 car sold for decades for some reason, compared to the Toyota Camry in US at the same time.

 

[9shots]

The Model Y will be certainly a best seller, however for people living in cities with tight parking spots, it might be just a little bit too large.

In particular the turning circle needs to be improved, Bjørn Nyland has a video shown the hudge difference between the VW ID.4 and Tesla Model 3.

I think the Model 2 would be more the top seller, been both a little bit smaller and less expensive.

You have to think that in Europe, the VW Golf has been the #1 car sold for decades for some reason, compared to the Toyota Camry in US at the same time.

That a Golf is the number one sold car doesn't have to mean the parking spots here are too tight.
For every 2 Golfs sold, there is almost one VW Passat sold. And a VW Passat is bigger than a Tesla Model Y.
And the Tesla Model 3 was in the top 10 sold cars in 2020, which is only 5cm smaller than a Model Y.
Owning a car is just more expensive in Europe, so we don't usually buy a bigger car than necessary.
But still plenty of bigger cars to see like Range Rovers etcetera. In most places there will be no issue to park with a car that size.

The difference between US and Europe is more that we don't have parking spaces for cars like Ford F-150.
Most parking spots are good for cars up to 5 meter, which is more than enough for a Model Y.
And even a BMW 7-series which is just over 5 meters is doable, I have experienced that myself.

 

[Watts_Up]

That a Golf is the number one sold car doesn't have to mean the parking spots here are too tight.

Really ?

 

[9shots]

Really ?

Yes really.
I don't know what you're trying to prove with a single picture. Europe is more than a single location. Like Texas is not the same as New York.
And besides that, you took a very bad picture as example.
As far as I can see, there are no lines on the parking spot, meaning you just park wherever you can.
And if I have to guess, this picture might have been from Paris. Where it's not uncommon to hit other cars while parking.
This is definitely not common in Europe.
Don't be so ignorant

 

[Tha_Ape]

I was looking at Teslas for years, but didn't want the 3 because I wanted a hatchback. I looked at used Model Ss and they didn't seem to have the cargo area I needed to replace my prius either.

They Model Y came out and checked all the boxes. I can see it selling a lot just due to it having a hatchback (until Tesla makes a smaller/ cheaper hatch)

 

[Darmie]

The Rise of the Crossover: The segment that’s really driving the auto industry’s sales

I think that answers the question. The small crossover is rapidly becoming the most wanted vehicle platform.

Ford is playing a big part in this. Have you seen their new family car line up? That's right, there are none. People can't buy what is not available to sell.

 

[babbit]

Yes really.
I don't know what you're trying to prove with a single picture. Europe is more than a single location. Like Texas is not the same as New York.
And besides that, you took a very bad picture as example.
As far as I can see, there are no lines on the parking spot, meaning you just park wherever you can.
And if I have to guess, this picture might have been from Paris. Where it's not uncommon to hit other cars while parking.
This is definitely not common in Europe.
Don't be so ignorant

While parking spaces in Europe can vary across countries and locations like you said, the "standards" that they follow are indeed tighter. Using width as an example, the US uses 2.7m width, UK uses 2.4m, and France uses 2.2m as the "standard". While technically any city/garage can make their own dimensions, the starting point drives the average to be tighter because the population density is a lot higher. Even in rural areas of France where parking is mostly unmarked, you see cars parked really close to each other even though there's plenty of space. My guess is that people are used to tight parking in the city.

 

[JanG007]

Yes really.
I don't know what you're trying to prove with a single picture. Europe is more than a single location. Like Texas is not the same as New York.
And besides that, you took a very bad picture as example.
As far as I can see, there are no lines on the parking spot, meaning you just park wherever you can.
And if I have to guess, this picture might have been from Paris. Where it's not uncommon to hit other cars while parking.
This is definitely not common in Europe.
Don't be so ignorant

On the other hand in Europe putting down 60-70K euro for a car is not for everybody, we also have a lot of haters around and with VW, IONIQ5, KONA, SKODA being available now they tend to appeal to a lot of people also. Once Giga Berlin is starting to push out these babies, the import tax and transport costs will be gone. That being said, the first load for Europe is sold out so I think it will be a success, not sure it will tripple the sales of the M3, in Europe that is.

 

[jpy1980]

The Model Y will be the best selling Tesla ever! Especially if it converted me, a LONG sports car only owner. Trust me, I know because I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express.

 

[mark95476]

I wonder if OP still finds MY volumes hard to believe. Two new factories should be building MY before the end of this year.

When Elon Musk announced the model Y, he claimed that it will outsell all the other Teslas combined. I can't see that happening. I don't even see that many Model Ys around, compared to the Model 3. I know the model 3 has been around longer, but do you actually see this happening? I find it hard to believe.

 

[angus[Y]oung]

When Elon Musk announced the model Y, he claimed that it will outsell all the other Teslas combined. I can't see that happening. I don't even see that many Model Ys around, compared to the Model 3. I know the model 3 has been around longer, but do you actually see this happening? I find it hard to believe.

@Singhman I definitely see 3's the most in the GVA. Lately I've been spotting quite a few Y though. It may soon overtake MX as the model I spot second-most. I'm going to start keeping track, for fun. I was watching colours recently and keeping count, and found that about 47% of all Teslas I see on the road are white, followed by black at about 25%, MSM at about 14%, blue at about 8%, and red at about 3%. As of today I'm switching gears and counting models instead. My quick errand this morning netted me two M3's, two MX's, one MS, and 1 MY.

I wonder if OP still finds MY volumes hard to believe. Two new factories should be building MY before the end of this year.

@Singhman this is a good question from @mark95476! Has your opinion changed much since February? I have to say, at least around the areas of the GVA I frequent, I'm seeing a TON of Model Ys lately! I would wager to say many days I see as many Ys as 3s, and occasionally more. I think a LOT has changed in the past 8 months! Would you agree?

EDIT: I should add: I no longer try to keep count like I mentioned in my reply in February. There's just too many on the road and it requires too much of my concentration to do safely (or sanely).