@brianman thanks for finding better words for my thoughts. I agree.
@CarlK the 60kWh actually has fewer and possibly other cells than the 85kWh battery pack. No dummy cells, but two empty module bays - 14 instead of 16 modules. And it weighs som 200lbs less.
You already discussed that making a dedicated 40kWh pack is not a desirable option for Tesla. I agree.
What they did with the software limited 40kWh cars having 60kWh packs was a great deal for these that actually got such a car. Not so much for Tesla, since they absorbed the higher cost. I doubt they want to repeat that, even if cell costs drop further. BTW public reception of a product that is software limited in its capability is a two-sided thing in public perception.