Elon Musk Says Tesla Cybertruck Could Cost a Million Dollars

[hridge2020]

After parading the prototype, Tesla seems to have hit a roadblock with the production of the Cybertruck.

After dozens of campaigns and even a parade in New York City, electric car maker Tesla is now facing an obstacle with the production of its heavy vehicle, Cybertruck. Speaking at a quarterly earnings call from the Giga Factory in Texas, CEO Elon Musk brought forward the challenges in making the Cybertruck at a large scale. Failure to do so would result in each Cybertruck costing a million dollars to make.

After delivering sedans that leave supercars behind, Tesla is now focused on all-electric heavy vehicles. Earlier in May, it proudly sent out a prototype on the streets of New York City.

While this made much noise on social media, the production seems to have stuttered. As Tesla has learned through delayed deliveries of its other cars, putting together a car at a mass scale is much different than putting together a prototype, something Musk kept repeating during the recent call.

The last time around, Tesla was putting together an electric car. This time, however, it is putting together a Cybertruck that is like none other. As its patents revealed earlier this year, the Cybertruck will come with an armor-glass, a self-sensing air conditioning system, eye-tracking technology to control the car's mirrors, among many other things. But it is the massive range of 610 miles (980+ km) that seems to be causing trouble at the moment.

To achieve this range, Tesla is innovating with a 4680 battery cell pack, which in theory is a lightweight and cost-effective option. However, it is something that hasn't been done before and requires a lot of innovations on Tesla's part. Recounting the progress they have made so far, Musk said that they weren't making minor improvements but "half a dozen major improvements and dozens of small improvements" to make it possible. However, he couldn't give a date as to when these issues would be resolved.

Musk also cited how chip shortages at a global level were stalling their progress. The company did manage to find some alternates and rewrite firmware to get production up to speed but chips are still the slowest part of their supply chain and he expects them to remain so for the rest of the year. Stressing on how difficult production was, Musk said, "there are thousand unique parts and processes that have to work. And the greater growth of production goes as fast as the least lucky and dumbest of those 10,000 things."

"We can make a small number of vehicles, but the effective cost, if you make a small number of vehicles, is insane," Musk added. "They would literally cost a million dollars piece or more."

Tesla continues to aim to begin deliveries of its Cybertruck by the end of this year. It has a backup plan of using a structurally different battery pack. This would need efforts on a war footing but as Musk himself believes, Tesla's efforts in delivering cars make World War II look trivial.


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[Zer0t]

This is disconcerting.

 

[ijoe13]

Seems like people will want the Cybertruck even more now that we may have to wait a bit longer.

 

[Gladius]

Yes it will cost millions if you are only able to produce like 100 a month. It is called scaling to get price down. People need to not react to everything Musk says.

 

[hill]

Folks don't bat an eye if a manufacturer builds just a handful of hydrogen cars that effectively causes the R&D to not pencil out - decade after decade ... but then have concerns if Musk states - in so many words, the same principal. The difference is the hydrogen car manufacturers don't like talking about it because it points out the glaring waste as well as proving up it CAN'T get a waiting list of over one million ... much less 10,000 (under 1% of cybertruck wait list).
.

 

[NoGasNoBrakes]

tl;dr To hit their goal of production for the Cybertruck, Tesla has a lot of innovation to do, which is per usual, and a misleading title also per usual

 

[dazedNconfuzed]

Delays of optimistically scheduled extreme innovation are not surprising.

The longer the delay, the better I can afford one.

 

[dazedNconfuzed]

Headline is like the "OMG the FAA gonna make SpaceX tear down the OLIT tower!!@!!@@11!" rhetoric - people looking for something to get hysterical about, rather than recognizing it's just a professional acknowledgement of limits.

Tesla is, understandably given the innovative tech involved, wrangling with a problem preventing a two-orders-of-magnitude reduction in production costs. Yes, they could build Cybertrucks despite the problem, and the product would cost ~15x the target price ... an attention-grabbing "million dollars". BTW, there are people who would pay that for one.

"Could" it cost that much? yes, that's what it could cost without solving the gating problem. I'd bet on Musk getting it solved.

 

[Big Earl]

I’m not sure what the point of this article is. Yes, limited production, hand-built prototypes are expensive. Obviously, Tesla will be able to scale up production and build trucks that cost less than $1M each.

 

[DarkandStormy]

But it is the massive range of 610 miles (980+ km) that seems to be causing trouble at the moment.

To achieve this range, Tesla is innovating with a 4680 battery cell pack, which in theory is a lightweight and cost-effective option. However, it is something that hasn't been done before and requires a lot of innovations on Tesla's part. Recounting the progress they have made so far, Musk said that they weren't making minor improvements but "half a dozen major improvements and dozens of small improvements" to make it possible. However, he couldn't give a date as to when these issues would be resolved.

Seems a bit bold to promise certain specs based on breakthroughs not achieved. See: CT, Semi, Roadster 2024, Solar Roof.

 

[TessP100D]

Seems a bit bold to promise certain specs based on breakthroughs not achieved. See: CT, Semi, Roadster 2024, Solar Roof.

That’s the problem. Roadster, CT, Semi all introduced to the public with features called out that don’t exist yet. Ok that’s a car if the future prototype. But, you don’t take reservations for this prototypes when You know dam well you can’t build them with the materials and tech you have now.

 

[texas_star_TM3]

That’s the problem. Roadster, CT, Semi all introduced to the public with features called out that don’t exist yet. Ok that’s a car if the future prototype. But, you don’t take reservations for this prototypes when You know dam well you can’t build them with the materials and tech you have now.

add Plaid+ (with insane range) to the "promised but never delivered in that form" mix.

I'm not holding my breath for the Cybertruck getting 500+ miles of range with a tri-motor setup and all that for under $70k ...

 

[TessP100D]

add Plaid+ (with insane range) to the "promised but never delivered in that form" mix.

I'm not holding my breath for the Cybertruck getting 500+ miles of range with a tri-motor setup and all that for under $70k ...

I’m with you. You are 100% correct.

 

[abasile]

I'm not holding my breath for the Cybertruck getting 500+ miles of range with a tri-motor setup and all that for under $70k ...

Tesla could, based on today's technology, produce a tri-motor vehicle with 500+ miles of range and make a profit selling it for $70k. They could do this with the Model S by adding more batteries, even though this would make the vehicle heavier and accelerate less quickly. Tesla's cost for batteries, at the pack level, is low enough even if two Model S packs (or Model 3 packs with 2170s) were required.

Now, Tesla won't do that with the Model S because they'd rather achieve higher profit margins, maintain 0-60 times worthy of a top-notch halo car, and stretch their supply of batteries. But they could in theory do it.

If the rest of the Cybertruck can be manufactured cost effectively, then Tesla could probably just use the existing 2170 battery architecture for the first version of the CT, then improve costs in subsequent versions by switching to the new 4680s. My sense, though I could be wrong, is that significant innovation still needs to happen in working with the stainless steel exoskeleton.

 

[HellsKitchen]

Tesla could, based on today's technology, produce a tri-motor vehicle with 500+ miles of range and make a profit selling it for $70k. They could do this with the Model S by adding more batteries, even though this would make the vehicle heavier and accelerate less quickly. Tesla's cost for batteries, at the pack level, is low enough even if two Model S packs (or Model 3 packs with 2170s) were required.

Now, Tesla won't do that with the Model S because they'd rather achieve higher profit margins, maintain 0-60 times worthy of a top-notch halo car, and stretch their supply of batteries. But they could in theory do it.

If the rest of the Cybertruck can be manufactured cost effectively, then Tesla could probably just use the existing 2170 battery architecture for the first version of the CT, then improve costs in subsequent versions by switching to the new 4680s. My sense, though I could be wrong, is that significant innovation still needs to happen in working with the stainless steel exoskeleton.

They're not even making the steel, they're just going to refine it. My biggest concern with the exoskeleton is how it will perform in crash tests.

 

[linux-works]

too much; too many new things on a product.

conventional wisdom says: this is folly.

and it will be late as hell.

but... hey... SHARP ANGLES! wheee!

sometimes, it does make sense to follow conventional development progressions and make smaller changes over time. he just bit off more than they can chew, right now. typical elon.

 

[texas_star_TM3]

Tesla could, based on today's technology, produce a tri-motor vehicle with 500+ miles of range and make a profit selling it for $70k. They could do this with the Model S by adding more batteries, even though this would make the vehicle heavier and accelerate less quickly. Tesla's cost for batteries, at the pack level, is low enough even if two Model S packs (or Model 3 packs with 2170s) were required.

Now, Tesla won't do that with the Model S because they'd rather achieve higher profit margins, maintain 0-60 times worthy of a top-notch halo car, and stretch their supply of batteries. But they could in theory do it.

If the rest of the Cybertruck can be manufactured cost effectively, then Tesla could probably just use the existing 2170 battery architecture for the first version of the CT, then improve costs in subsequent versions by switching to the new 4680s. My sense, though I could be wrong, is that significant innovation still needs to happen in working with the stainless steel exoskeleton.

just cramming in more existing batteries would drive the weight up, would hurt the promised acceleration (another aggressive spec) and would also decrease payload / towing (another promised spec). it's not that simple. as someone else stated - crash testing will also be "interesting" with an exoskeleton.

can it be figured out/ solved? sure. but that takes time.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Seems a bit bold to promise certain specs based on breakthroughs not achieved. See: CT, Semi, Roadster 2024, Solar Roof.

Musk was in full bullshit mode at the time. Tesla was still struggling financially.

Of course, the headline on the article above is typical headline-writer bullshit as well. It's not going to cost a million. The real headline is "Tesla can't make the Cybertruck yet, if ever". The reality is that they need their next-generation cells before they can deliver those next-generation products.

 

[abasile]

just cramming in more existing batteries would drive the weight up, would hurt the promised acceleration (another aggressive spec) and would also decrease payload / towing (another promised spec). it's not that simple. as someone else stated - crash testing will also be "interesting" with an exoskeleton.

can it be figured out/ solved? sure. but that takes time.

Totally agree that the exoskeleton will be a challenge.

As of 2018, the mass of the Long Range Model 3 battery pack was around 1054 lbs / 478 kg. Two of those packs ought to be more than enough for the dual motor CT, with 300 miles of range. A ton of batteries would make it rather portly, but it could still surpass its promised specs. The tri motor CT, with 2.9s 0-60 and 500 miles, will most likely need to wait for the new 4680s. So I will concede that.

 

[texas_star_TM3]

Totally agree that the exoskeleton will be a challenge.

As of 2018, the mass of the Long Range Model 3 battery pack was around 1054 lbs / 478 kg. Two of those packs ought to be more than enough for the dual motor CT, with 300 miles of range. A ton of batteries would make it rather portly, but it could still surpass its promised specs. The tri motor CT, with 2.9s 0-60 and 500 miles, will most likely need to wait for the new 4680s. So I will concede that.

agreed. one thing to consider... using the battery packs to make/sell 2x Model 3 AWD will yield much better margins / revenue / in-period bookings vs. "wasting" those 2 battery packs on a single CT AWD