Elon Musk Says Tesla Is 'Very Close' To Level 5 Self-Driving Technology

[TMC Staff]

But wait, Tesla’s vehicles aren’t even officially Level 3 yet. Tesla Autopilot is really the only advanced driver-assist system that gets a great deal of news coverage. This is likely due to the system’s name, added to the fact that anything related to Tesla is constantly in the news. However, its current “self-driving” tech is...
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[DS369]

Level 5 basic functionality = level 3 functionality. Elon's great businessman, pushing Tesla's sales and stock to the limit and beyond. IMO current hardware, even just cameras, are not enough for FSD. Rear camera is a useless parking camera for example, useless for FSD. It's fish-eye and lacks resolution. I'm quite sure there are pretty big gaps in Tesla's "360" view. If you have ever driven with the sun shining at 30-50 degrees you would know that current hardware is not capable to solve the sun glare problem. Some highway to highway merge lanes are so short and the car is at such an angle that it won't be able to see safely with current repeater cameras. This last problem is solvable if ALL cars are FSD, which will not happen for another 20 years.

 

[DS369]

However, what Tesla is developing with the respect to computer vision is extremely valuable in many other areas of application. We it's help we would finally be able to automate a lot of routine jobs, like packing and assembly. And this is great value, hopefully Tesla understands that.

 

[whitex]

I'm sorry, but this is not the first time Elon said things like this. In 2016 he told us all cars coming off the line were Level 5 capable (which turned out even less true than when he claimed that P85D was a 700hp car in 2014). He's now using the Texas Sharpshooter fallacy to convince people that he's (again) close to Level 5 auto-pilot, but if you listen closely he simply redefined level 5 to be what is actually somewhere between level 2 and level 3. Just like in March 2019 when Tesla redefined that Tesla FSD feature is, and suddenly went from 0% complete to 75% complete, just like that. "3 months maybe, 6 months for sure", "sooner than anyone things", right?

PS> For those who don't know, Texas Sharpshooter fallacy example - you take a rifle, walk a mile from a barn wall, fire the rifle at the barn wall, then you return to the barn and draw a nice, bright, dime sized bullseye around where your bullet hit the wall. You can now claim, without lying, that you hit that bullseye from a mile away. You are now a Texas Sharpshooter.

 

[jeremymc7]

Not even close. Use FSD every day and love it. But NO WHERE near level 5.

Can’t change lanes on surface street.
Can’t keep up with flow of travel
Can’t make turns.
Can’t handle round abouts.
Can’t handle handle side walks with stoplight beta on.
Constant phantom braking.
No going even +1 over speed limit
Anymore.
Speed limit In nav database often wrong with posted signs.

BARELT level 2. NO WHERE near L4 or L5.

 

[DrtyJrze]

It’s 2020, if people don’t know by now that Elon is very liberal with his definitions of “close” and “soon” then you’ve been in a coma or cave for the last 10 years and deserve whatever mental anguish or financial hardships that come your way for taking his words literally.

 

[powertoold]

Elon doesn't think in individual features. He thinks in foundations and potential progress. I think he feels confident that Tesla has the foundation to achieve FSD, but they just need to collect more of the edge cases and do the tedious work.

As CEO of big companies, he can't go too much in the weeds. He just focuses on the foundational developments, and the engineers can refine the technology.

 

[whitex]

Elon doesn't think in individual features. He thinks in foundations and potential progress. I think he feels confident that Tesla has the foundation to achieve FSD, but they just need to collect more of the edge cases and do the tedious work.

As CEO of big companies, he can't go too much in the weeds. He just focuses on the foundational developments, and the engineers can refine the technology.

Well, he felt the same way back in 2016, and he will feel just the same in 2024. For Elon everything is always 3 months away maybe, 6 months for sure. So no news really that Elon thinks he's close to Level 5, he always did and always will.

 

[jeremymc7]

We’re going to have much better batteries WAY sooner than anything close to level 5, or 4; unfortunately.

 

[PhysicsGuy]

We’re going to have much better batteries WAY sooner than anything close to level 5, or 4; unfortunately.

better batteries? really? do you know something? (Battery technology seems kind of mature, though it is hard to know really

 

[PhysicsGuy]

I know this thread is about autonomy, but what we have now does 90% of my driving and I would not want to live without it. it is pretty great imo.

 

[jeremymc7]

I know this thread is about autonomy, but what we have now does 90% of my driving and I would not want to live without it. it is pretty great imo.

I do mostly street driving. I need lane changes on streets (not just highways) and turning on city streets (HOPEFULLY SOON).

Give me those and it’ll make the world of difference to me.

 

[whitex]

I know this thread is about autonomy, but what we have now does 90% of my driving and I would not want to live without it. it is pretty great imo.

AP1 can do 91% of all my driving (summon on and off the driveway is most of my car's use during COVID times). So what? This thread is about Elon that claiming Tesla is close to Level 5 autonomy, think Summon from New York to L.A. It's not about whether or not people find the current Level 2 features helpful.

 

[powertoold]

Well, he felt the same way back in 2016, and he will feel just the same in 2024. For Elon everything is always 3 months away maybe, 6 months for sure. So no news really that Elon thinks he's close to Level 5, he always did and always will.

No, he didn't feel the same way in 2016. For a long time, he's thought that FSD would be achieved around 2020-2021.

When he says FSD, he just means you CAN have the car drive from point a to b in any routine USA driving location. He doesn't mean it'll be able to do so every time, all the time, etc.

Feature-complete FSD would be a monumental achievement in itself. It'll take some time to work out the kinks, obviously.

He also admits he was hoping feature complete FSD would happen by the end of 2019, but he was too optimistic about that.

Elon doesn't think in the SAE terms. Tesla has always defied convention with AP and "FSD." They don't need to fit their ideas into another group's box.

 

[whitex]

No, he didn't feel the same way in 2016. For a long time, he's thought that FSD would be achieved around 2020-2021.

Uhm... You are right, I can't guarantee what he was feeling, I can only go by what he was saying, like FSD features to begin rolling out by end of 2016 (while not even automatic headlights or wipers worked by end of 2016) and Elon's video on their website showing FSD and a claim that Tesla will demonstrate coast-to-coast FSD by end of 2017. Maybe you are right, maybe he didn't actually feel that way, instead was plain lying to people while showing fake videos to get more people to pay for FSD. Maybe he still is not feeling this way today, just lying?

When he says FSD, he just means you CAN have the car drive from point a to b in any routine USA driving location. He doesn't mean it'll be able to do so every time, all the time, etc.

Really? Did you read the description of FSD Elon was selling in 2016?

Did you not see Tesla marketing video showing the car driving itself through city streets, intersections, roundabout, parking itself, etc? That was all part of 2016 marketing.

He also admits he was hoping feature complete FSD would happen by the end of 2019, but he was too optimistic about that.

After he said it would be done in 2016, then end of 2017, then 2018, etc... It's always "3 months maybe, 6 months for sure" (actual Elon quote) or "sooner than anyone thinks" (also an Elon quote about FSD from few years ago).

Elon doesn't think in the SAE terms. Tesla has always defied convention with AP and "FSD." They don't need to fit their ideas into another group's box.

Ah yes, the Texas sharpshooter method, keep redefining the target to be able to claim hitting it. When Elon said during AP1 reveal that the car will find me anywhere on the property, it meant as long as it's no more than 40 feet away in a straight line from where the car starts, and while I hold a dead man's switch. He just "forgot" to qualify that, right. When Elon boasted how P85D was a 700hp car, he mean Elon's custom definition hp, because after few years Tesla published actual hp (as defined by standard) and it turned out Elon's 691hp = 463 actual hp, like the rest fo the world defines it. Now you're saying "To Elon Level 5 means something completely different". Ok, if by Level 5 Elon means whatever the state of the car will be in few months, of course he's guaranteed to meet it, by definition. Using your logic, why don't we just agree that all Tesla's are at Elon's Level 11 autonomy right now, which we can if we don't use any standardized definitions, sound good to you? However, drop all the level stuff, when is FSD going to do everything that Elon sold in 2016 (read the above screenshot again) - no Levels, just plain text from Tesla FSD description.

 

[goRt]

But wait, Tesla’s vehicles aren’t even officially Level 3 yet. Tesla Autopilot is really the only advanced driver-assist system that gets a great deal of news coverage. This is likely due to the system’s name, added to the fact that anything related to Tesla is constantly in the news. However, its current “self-driving” tech is...
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That would be dropping the new software stack on HW3

 

[powertoold]

Really? Did you read the description of FSD Elon was selling in 2016?

Did you not see Tesla marketing video showing the car driving itself through city streets, intersections, roundabout, parking itself, etc? That was all part of 2016 marketing.

Yes, it's disappointing the way Tesla marketed FSD. It was a lot of hubris with fine print underneath. It was essentially presented as a "dream" scenario but in the fine print (and innuendo), they were still developing it and always "subject to regulatory approval." As it says in that description, system is "designed to," not "can." Lol

I still think Elon was predicting FSD to be available around today, give or take 1-2 years.

Elon's got a ton of hubris when it comes to tech development. I work in software, and it's very difficult to predict the timeline for consumer software, not even accounting for fact that general FSD has never been close to being achieved.

 

[hill]

Not even close. Use FSD every day and love it. But NO WHERE near level 5.
Can’t change lanes on surface street.
Can’t keep up with flow of travel
Can’t handle round abouts.
No going even +1 over speed limit
Anymore.
Speed limit In nav database often wrong with posted signs. .....snip......

and yet mobile eye / AP1 did this & more.
(If only their MCU's weren't programmed to auto destruct - due to excess data log rewrites)

.

 

[whitex]

Yes, it's disappointing the way Tesla marketed FSD. It was a lot of hubris with fine print underneath. It was essentially presented as a "dream" scenario but in the fine print (and innuendo), they were still developing it and always "subject to regulatory approval."

So back to my original point, Elon's announcement about being close to Level 5 is just as meaningless now as it was 4 years ago as it will be in 4 four years. Nothing new really. Yes he's making progress, but his announcements of being close to what he sold people in 2016 are akin to Boeing trying to claim they are close to landing on Mars, because they've put on so many miles on their airplanes.

As it says in that description, system is "designed to," not "can." Lol

Ah yes, Tesla's famous wordsmithing, my car is a 691hp car, except for key components like the battery or inverter, which limit it to 463hp. So, if we use this skill, I will agree with you that all Tesla cars have a full self driving, 100% level 5 capable (today, not in the future), windshield, door handles, rear seats, etc. If we look closely, we might even be able to say that 80% of the car's components are ready for complete Level 5 autonomy today - does that mean they are 80% done? Of course that would mean every other car out there is probably at least 70% done for Level 5 too.

Elon's got a ton of hubris when it comes to tech development. I work in software, and it's very difficult to predict the timeline for consumer software, not even accounting for fact that general FSD has never been close to being achieved.

This is not just software. I guarantee you than no AP2.0 "Level 5 capable" (as advertised by Tesla and Elon) will EVER be Level 5 capable (that is with free retrofits provided by Tesla to all) within its expected lifespan (say 15-20 years). It would need new sensors, more redundancy for sensors and controls, different processing hardware (current cars are already 2 generations of AP hardware later).

 

[powertoold]

This is not just software. I guarantee you than no AP2.0 "Level 5 capable" (as advertised by Tesla and Elon) will EVER be Level 5 capable (that is with free retrofits provided by Tesla to all) within its expected lifespan (say 15-20 years).

Tesla would agree as well with hw3.

I get it. I was in the Elon "lying" camp for a while as well. To me, feature-complete FSD is as difficult as landing humans on Mars, if not more difficult, since we've already landed equipment on Mars. Once it's done (if ever), even in rudimentary form, I'm sure it'll wow me as when SpaceX first landed its rocket on a barge.