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Elon Musk - Singularity, AGI, Killer Robots, SkyNet will be here in 2019!

Discussion in 'Autonomous Vehicles' started by Bladerskb, Oct 10, 2018.

  1. Bladerskb

    Bladerskb Like how many times do i have to be right?

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    #1 Bladerskb, Oct 10, 2018
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2018
    2014 Archives

    Its absolutely hilarious looking back at this guy's past statements/predictions and comparing it to his FSD statements.
     
  2. S4WRXTTCS

    S4WRXTTCS Active Member

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    Elon is the very definition of hyperbole.

    Everything he says is an exaggeration of the truth.

    Like the Model 3 is one of the safest cars that's ever been tested by the NHTSA (actually an approved lab), but simply saying that wasn't enough for Elon. Elon had to go and say it was the safest car ever tested.

    So he basically took good news, and converted into negative news.

    The same thing with the EAP/FSD. They could have sold that as a work in progress like an annual license to a software product. But, that wasn't good enough.

    I say this as someone who really enjoys the Tesla adventure.

    But, I definitely look forwards to a bit more grounding. I'm not saying to balance it all the way to the "in cement" grounding of traditional automakers. Just a nudge into the more practical realm.
     
    • Disagree x 1
  3. ACA Man

    ACA Man Member

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    Musk got a problem.
     
  4. Leopold Stotch

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    Well said. I agree.
     
  5. S4WRXTTCS

    S4WRXTTCS Active Member

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    Just an update. After reviewing the math I'm forced to accept that I came to a conclusion too quickly on this, and that my conclusion was wrong.

    If you add it up the Model 3 is the safest vehicle tested by an NHTSA approved lab.

    Now does that really mean it's the safest vehicle the road? No. But, in terms of what Elon said I do believe it checks out.

    So that was a bad example. Oops.
     
  6. robby

    robby Member

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    My read is that Elon is exceptional at figuring out the difference between what is impossible and what is just really hard. His batting average on that, and the number of big examples where he has proven an expert consensus wrong is astounding to me.

    His time estimates are hilariously optimistic, and deserving of the jokes they inspire.

    So, I generally trust him on what will happen, but not when it will happen.

    Also @S4WRXTTCS good on you for the above post. I understand why NHTSA put out the statement it did (they don't publicly rank cars on the metrics Tesla cited), but it does seem like they bent over backwards to make Tesla look like it was stretching the truth, when in fact Tesla just added up the numbers in NHTSA's own report. IMO it is better for NHTSA's safety mission to validate straightforward claims like that to encourage other automakers to compete on safety.
     
    • Like x 1
  7. Lasairfion

    Lasairfion Member

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    Southwest Airlines actually did a similar thing back in the day. They called it the Triple Crown which was based on having the three best metrics for On-Time Performance, Baggage Handling and Customer Complaints in the Department of Transportation's monthly Air Travel Consumer Report.

    Of course no such thing really existed, it was just something made up so that the outcome looked cooler than boring DoT monthly stats. However when they reached their 3rd month of Triple Crowns (a Triple Triple) and put it in their PR material, their competitors suddenly realised that this was an achievement that customers wanted to see.
     

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