Elon Musk - SpaceX version

[JB47394]

I suspect it's their meaning and implication that we read differently, leading to different conclusions.

Very true.

Anyone can be right on a point, given enough time. Or they can be right on a point, given an appropriate perspective. It's just a matter of how words are defined, and so on. "From a certain point of view..." So I consider Elon to be right about reusable rockets, but wrong about carbon fiber rockets. He's right about electric cars, but he's wrong about full automation of the factory floor. His mistakes are a result of his not grasping the fundamentals of what he was getting into, which was the starting premise to all this. I don't debate his vision for a moment. Thank goodness for that ability. But he does screw up on some fundamentals.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Very true.

Anyone can be right on a point, given enough time. Or they can be right on a point, given an appropriate perspective. It's just a matter of how words are defined, and so on. "From a certain point of view..." So I consider Elon to be right about reusable rockets, but wrong about carbon fiber rockets. He's right about electric cars, but he's wrong about full automation of the factory floor. His mistakes are a result of his not grasping the fundamentals of what he was getting into, which was the starting premise to all this. I don't debate his vision for a moment. Thank goodness for that ability. But he does screw up on some fundamentals.

You realize that only Elon would have come up with stainless steel for a fully reusable rocket, right? It was his idea, no one else's.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I don’t think Elon has ever suggested Neuralink will have ultimate success soon. IIRC, he has never given a timeline for anything at neuralink. So don’t judge it based on progress so far.

Indeed, anyone who knows enough about the field KNOWS that progress will be slow … this is like biotech company speed, ten years to first product kind of thing. If they have a first product in 8 years, it’ll be a win.

Also, state of the art continues to be the Utah array, which is like the dark ages compared to the current Neuralink implant. If Neuralink didn’t exist, the field wouldn’t automatically progress. Neuralink is an important player in this area, and I’m glad he has spent $$$ on it.



He one of the generation’s best business strategists. His drive and leadership haven’t been seen in business since Edison. As a pure technologist, he’s not the best in class, so, ok, he’s only world class in 2 things and not all things. But he’s a pretty damn good technologist nonetheless. The complete package is very, very rare. You just don’t see risk taking, maniacal drive, business strategy, solid technical abilities, war-general leadership all in one person.

Yes, he has his faults (as told ad-nauseum in Issacson’s book), but who doesn’t.



I agree 100%. Neuralink is on track to provide spinal cord injury cures, restore eyesight and hearing, Etc. His original goal of sped up human I/O rates is very very speculative at best. 99% chance of it not working IMHO.



I disagree. I suspect political biases are going to color what anyone thinks of his twitter adventure, so I’ll just leave it at that.



Indeed. Over automating Model 3 production almost bankrupted the company. It was their giant leap into mass manufacturing and they didn’t have the luxury of a $20B cash hoard like Rivian did (and note Rivian also botched their foray into mass manufacturing). But he cleaned up his own mess there.

The jury is still out, but I strongly suspect he is wrong about lithium supply. All signs point to a mining crunch in 2-3 years. We shall see.

I think Tesla is at the spot where it isn’t clear he’s doing more good than harm at this point. Having said that, it is also clear that Tesla wouldn’t have done single piece casting without Elon, and also wouldn’t have designed the Cybertruck like it is without him, both of which I think were brilliant strategic decisions. So, maybe he has a lot of usefulness in him at that company yet.

And here you go. First human trials for Neuralink already. Neuralink’s First-in-Human Clinical Trial is Open for Recruitment | Blog | Neuralink

 

[mongo]

You realize that only Elon would have come up with stainless steel for a fully reusable rocket, right? It was his idea, no one else's.

Elon Musk: Yes. The design of Starship and the Super Heavy rocket booster I changed to a special alloy of stainless steel. I was contemplating this for a while. And this is somewhat counterintuitive. It took me quite a bit of effort to convince the team to go in this direction.
Elon Musk: Why I'm Building the Starship out of Stainless Steel

(For some reason, I thought it was the other way around, that team had to convince Elon)

 

[Grendal]

Elon's interview begins at 3 hours-45 minutes:

 

[ecarfan]

That ”interview“ was, IMO, a complete waste of time. No interesting questions were asked. The interviewer acted like a fawning…I’ll keep the next word to myself.

I’m not the only one who was disappointed. Ars Technica:

World’s largest space conference succeeds in making a Starship update boring​

 

[Cosmacelf]

That ”interview“ was, IMO, a complete waste of time. No interesting questions were asked. The interviewer acted like a fawning…I’ll keep the next word to myself.

I’m not the only one who was disappointed. Ars Technica:

World’s largest space conference succeeds in making a Starship update boring​

While his criticism was somewhat accurate (even if the right questions were asked, it is not clear you’d get good answers, Elon has a habit of not answering or answering a different question), I thought the interview was ok and did shed some light. But, yes, someone like Everyday Astronaut would have asked more technical questions and follow ups.

 

[spacerfc]

https://x.com/WholeMarsBlog/status/1713844194891165806

Without SpaceX, the United States would have fallen behind China in space launches in 2015

And without Tesla, the world highest volume producer of BEVs would definitely not be an American company… it would be a Chinese one

Naturally, Musk is public enemy #1

So true

 

[scaesare]

I would go with low interest loans to allow companies to pursue construction of desired services. So perhaps Viasat wants in on the rural internet access business, but doesn't have the money to build it out of pocket. They show what they plan to do, and the government loans them money. They're obliged to pay back the money, so the government isn't risking much.

Once the service is working at a proscribed level, pay an award to the company. So Viasat provided service to 10,000 locations across America, and that's worth a certain award. Keep the awards at a point where the company has to provide the service for multiple years, with award money coming each year.

The awards would also go down if many companies ended up providing the service. So if 1,000 locations have only one provider, then the government gives the full bounty to the one provider - because that one company is helping Americans there. If another 1,000 locations have five providers, then that area is probably pretty easy to service and/or profitable to the companies, and the awards can be split between the companies.

The natural abuse of this is to come up with service that only lasts as long as the awards are flowing. If the emphasis is on the loan system, with the award money just being a nice-to-have, then the only contracts that anyone would bid on would be for viable businesses. That, instead of making bidding on government contracts the business.


I'm afraid that I won't buy into his comments just because he references a media article. Remember that media exists to draw eyeballs, so if they can find stuff that even hints at some impropriety, they're gonna run with it. Ultimately, we have to discuss facts, not perceptions, and I think Carr - as many Republicans are wont to do - went off the rails by playing the emotional card.

It may sound like I hate Republicans. If I do, it's only because I used to be one. I hate what the Republican party has become. Those bastards took over and ruined a good thing.

Fair enough.

Not trying to belabor the point, but even Elon has recently expressed frustration with Biden snubs:

So, the idea that the gov't harbors some animosity doesn't seem far-fetched...

 

[JB47394]

So, the idea that the gov't harbors some animosity doesn't seem far-fetched...

They're looking into his activities. Given his antics, I'd look into him too. I mean, he does have a screw loose - or two. At the same time, he controls SpaceX and Tesla, two highly disruptive and powerful companies. He's such a wildcard that the relatively staid and stolid types in politics are understandably going to be nervous.

 

[scaesare]

They're looking into his activities. Given his antics, I'd look into him too. I mean, he does have a screw loose - or two. At the same time, he controls SpaceX and Tesla, two highly disruptive and powerful companies. He's such a wildcard that the relatively staid and stolid types in politics are understandably going to be nervous.

Well, deliberately excluding Tesla from the White House EV summit when they sold 300K vehicles, and then not only inviting GM, but lauding CEO Mary Berra for" leading" in EV's whn they sold 39 is more than just "looking in to".

 

[JB47394]

Well, deliberately excluding Tesla from the White House EV summit when they sold 300K vehicles, and then not only inviting GM, but lauding CEO Mary Berra for" leading" in EV's whn they sold 39 is more than just "looking in to".

That, like everything else, is a reflection of Elon's personality. Politicians just don't want to be associated with him. He says crazy things, proposes crazy things, and does crazy things. Mary Barra, on the other hand, is exactly the sort that politicians like. She plays the game. As a result, she is embraced by politicians who declare her to be blazing the trail forward for EVs in America.

But note that, when it comes time to hand out taxpayer money on a performance basis, the money still goes to Elon's companies. So EV summits mean nothing, and that's why Elon not being invited was just a social snub. He's not a likeable guy among that crowd, so he doesn't get invited to their parties. He's the crazy uncle who always gets drunk and ends up noisily espousing his favorite conspiracy theories to anyone who will listen.

 

[SO16]

Well, deliberately excluding Tesla from the White House EV summit when they sold 300K vehicles, and then not only inviting GM, but lauding CEO Mary Berra for" leading" in EV's whn they sold 39 is more than just "looking in to".

Elon should not take this so personally.

It was Biden placating to the unions. That’s all.

Tesla has received far more benefit from the IRA than anyone else (because Tesla is better than anyone else). But I wish Elon wouldn’t take THAT part so hard.

Not that I’m saying the admin is secretly pro Elon. They are not. But there are other things to be upset about. Like slowing down Starship.

 

[JB47394]

On the other hand, after 23 years BO has not even launched an orbital class rocket much less put a payload in orbit.

They're pacing themselves. They've mastered the all-important Karman Line, so now they're moving to the next obvious goal and are flying to Mars. (!!!)

The contrast is startling.

Jeff is just a billionaire. Elon is a crazy billionaire. Big difference.

 

[Grendal]

Jeff is just a billionaire. Elon is a crazy billionaire. Big difference.

We have no clue which billionaires are crazy and which aren't. Almost all of them have no public presence. Elon just tells you what he thinks all the time because of his autistic tendencies. Just like most of us, he has well thought out reasoning on many things and "shoots from the hip" on others. Having listened to many interviews about his take on "free speech, " I think his views are very old school liberal and constitutional. The issue I have with it is that social media allows for propaganda to propagate. Casually allowing known disseminators of propaganda and conspiracy theories to just have their say is not healthy for the general populace. It's a different world from when you had fringe Nazi's having a parade through town spouting their nonsense. Elon is obtusely focused on the fact that everyone should be allowed a voice (they should) but seems to be unaware of the impact/damage these propaganda and conspiracy theorists can have on social media.

This is just my take on this.

 

[scaesare]

SpaceX contends the evaluation was based on a total of two tests. So that’s bogus.

Also the FCC is simply wrong. Anyways, enough of this dead horse beating. Elon will or won’t get the last laugh in the 2024 election.

Whelp... sorry to give the deceased equine one more whack, but:

Biden’s alarming harassment of Elon Musk

Musk has been an asset to Biden’s presidency.

thehill.com