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Elon Musk vs. Short sellers

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by jesselivenomore, Jun 18, 2018.

  1. Navin

    Navin Member

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    #81 Navin, Jun 18, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 18, 2018
    Words cannot describe how meaningful these posts by Jesse are. Like seeing the truth you have been sensing and seeing but not having the color or intelligence to piece it together properly. Wow!!

    Please let me know what your favorite charity is so I can make a donation on your behalf and, ironically enough, the shorts who have given me the money to be able to do so.

    On a side note. Can someone forward this thread to Bonnie who can make sure it gets viewed by the appropriate people at Tesla?
     
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  2. adiggs

    adiggs Active Member

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    I think you can be sure @bonnie has seen the thread with an @ tag calling her attention to it.
     
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  3. UrsS

    UrsS Member

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  4. BenPrice

    BenPrice Member

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    In the late 80s, early 90s, Toyota developed and refined the Camry, established a new baseline for manufacturing, and then dominated foreign markets for over a decade.

    You know what Toyota never did?

    Own the gas station.

    In the 2010s Tesla developed the Model S - “best car ever”...not my words. Now the 3. The claim is that they will win based on manufacturing. Just like Toyota.

    The thing is.

    They also own the gas station.

    Taking the sun and invoicing for it is ...

    It’s loony. It’s a complete shift.

    I’ll never leave my Tesla position. The infrastructure is in place and the technology is refined enough for awards such as “best ever”. The remaining equation is a cost based one, and if Tesla in its current iteration fails it will be purchased.

    Betting against this is the dumbest thing I can think of.

    It is WAY beyond unstoppable at this point. Whether you profit short term is your business, but this business model is going to destroy the competition in whatever iteration it comes from. Making a competing EV is not the bar - not when one company is taking the “gas station”.

    Best of luck with that.
     
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  5. FredTMC

    FredTMC Model S VIN #4925

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    Doesn’t Jesse have another post coming? TIA
     
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  6. Boomer19

    Boomer19 Supporting Member

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    correct, it’s common.
    even options action segment on cnbc points them out. hard to get to the bottom of any of it either way.
     
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  7. Boomer19

    Boomer19 Supporting Member

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    noted, sorry i should have posed that question in the main forum!
     
  8. TMSE

    TMSE Member

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    @jesselivenomore ,
    words can not describe the rush of emotions in me after reading this great post. Thank you!!!

    @FredLambert ,
    It would be great if this can be summarized as an article on Electrek to reach wider audience. Thank you.
     
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  9. sundaymorning

    sundaymorning Active Member

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    @FredLambert please get this distributed to a wider audience.
     
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  10. neroden

    neroden Happy Model S Owner

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    So, before Jesse writes his last posting, I'll say one thing. I think the manipulative short-sellers are underestimating Tesla's access to capital.

    A financial firm -- a bank -- is inherently subject to "bank run" pressures. A manufacturing firm isn't. Tesla needs capital intermittently, but not *constantly* the way a bank does. (Banks are in the job of having massive amounts of *short-term*, *callable* debt backed by *long-term*, *illiquid* assets. Tesla is in the business of building stuff and selling it.)

    An attempt to drive Tesla bankrupt by denying it access to capital is a *lot harder* than trying to do the same thing with a bank. Once Tesla is near operating breakeven (which they are), if Tesla needs capital at any time, all it needs is a finite, limited amount of capital for specific projects. A loan or investment from Sergey Brin or Larry Page or Tencent would do it.

    Even if short-sellers spooked most of the investment banks, or the investment banks colluded with them... Tesla would still have access to capital.

    And it's much harder for the manipulators to hold the stock price down than it was with financial firms. There's extreme buying pressure whenever the stock drops enough. On a personal note, my position size is as large as I currently with TSLA.... unless the short-sellers somehow drive it down into the $2xx's again *after* Tesla's at 5000 cars/week, in which case I can and will double my investment. Bigger investors are no doubt thinking the same thing. The short-sellers don't have enough firepower to fight that.
     
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  11. Zhelko Dimic

    Zhelko Dimic Careful bull

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    Cross posting from another Jesse's thread, I figured this is the right place for this content.

    After reading @jesselivenomore excellent 'Elon vs Short Sellers" series, I'm wondering what if Elon figured out the same thing that Jesse did? I have never fully bought into any conspiracy theory before, yet, I'm finding that this one resonates deeply with me. I believe it to be very close to what has actually happened. I don't think Elon made all the same elaborate connections like Jesse did, but what if he did enough, and footed the bill for initial investigation, and 3 weeks from now there is a reveal, or lawsuit, just like with Fairfax guys?

    BTW, I remember seeing Gordon Johnson coming out of Vertical group (unknown outfit) first time and thinking, man, this guy is so polished and sleek, and spewing such non-sense that he must be professional assassin, gun for hire, paid to hurt Tesla. I've been thinking that every time I see it.

    Imagine my surprise that Jesse dug out how the same guy was active and instrumental in SCTY demise? :) And then this guy from unknown new outfit gets to be interviewed all the time? Unreal... Someone must be asking for some favours to place him so prominently. And then Lora Kolodny... And Mark Spiegel talking at major conferences? Who is pulling strings behind the scene? Is it a single person, or set of short hedge funds? At some point, all these coincidences become too much for anyone to swallow.

    Great work Jesse!

    Elon, if you haven't already, please get some investigation going. Too many people have been involved in this slander campaign for all the traces to have been buried...
     
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  12. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Well-Known Member

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    This trade is key. SEC can easily identify this person.
     
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  13. dakh

    dakh Member

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    So are you guys saying that if I monitor trading for the kind of trades like zdriver found, and just mirror them, there's an indirect (and I'm guessing legal?) way to trade on "someone knew something"? Some historical data checking is probably due..
     
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  14. dw4ngg

    dw4ngg Member

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    If the crux of the shorts’ plan Jesse supposits here is accurate, then what Elon is implying will happen in 3 weeks’ time that will destroy shorts must have something to do with removing capital concerns. What could do that?

    1) Partnership announcement - maybe with Tencent?

    2) Surprise cash flow news to the upside regarding 2Q (less likely)

    3) What else?

    I don’t think the news will have anything to do with anything else at this point.
     
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  15. stevejust

    stevejust T E S L A x (≡)

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    This would be dangerous. These kinds of trades happen a lot and don't work out. It could be more of a coincidence this time. It'd be hard to know which is what until it happens.

    That said, the SEC should figure out what happened in that trade.

    I hope this is true, but Tesla did pledge the Fremont factory in their last credit amendment. The shorts keep harping on how limited conventional means to raise capital are.

    Of course, Elon's recent share price point purchases kind of put a new floor at about $340, so who knows... maybe when the bonds become due they'll be no big deal. A high share price is going to help.

    Also helping is the fact that even notorious short Mark Spiegel has given up.
     
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  16. zdriver

    zdriver Member

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    Yes. No. Kinda.

    The hardest part is being able to recognize what options flow is worth following, and what's not. I use it as part of my overall strategy, with other methods for developing a sort of mental "confidence score". Rarely do I trade against an existing, obvious trend for example, and the only time I'll blindly jump in and follow some flow is when the intraday price action is supportive - in those cases I usually only do a day trade.

    The April $250p buyer was a head scratcher because TSLA seemed quite strong at the time - $250 seemed totally out of the question. It wasn't until the week after, when the OI for that strike kept piling up day after day, while TSLA kept sliding even in the face of buyers showing up at the expected support levels, that it became apparent there was probably something behind that flow - some knowledge of future events about to unfold.
    A good trader would've bought some puts at that point so as to have more dry powder at the bottom - I unfortunately did not, but hindsight is always 20/20...
     
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  17. bdy0627

    bdy0627 Active Member

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    I'm with you on this. Good production news doesn't seem likely to eliminate that many shorts. But, if it creates a lot more buyers of the stock, that still could do it. Isn't 5,000/week kinda priced in now though? Like you said, I'm guessing this is about a capital infusion of sorts. That eliminates the liquidity issue that shorts are focused on now, and would probably cause a substantial number of shorts to exit. Combine that with some good production numbers, the China factory, along with the funding for it, and an update on improved gross margins for Q3/Q4 due to the 9% job cuts and increased model 3 ASP, and I think that could make it quite likely.
     
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  18. TradingInvest

    TradingInvest Member

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    Forget about donation for now, the fight is not over yet. I think we should save every dollar and get ready to support Tesla in the next turn. This is not just about Tesla's mission or profit. In the long run, Elon needs the money from Tesla's success to help humanity, ultimately, help to contain general AI. Elon predicted general AI will be developed in about 7 years. Every major country is working hard on this. The breakthrough may come anytime. Once general AI is developed, it will soon reach a decent level and naturally will start to self evolve (AI develop AI), we will have a new type of "animal" with IQ of 50,000 and continue to double every month. Human probably will become irrelevant. I know this sounds crazy, but the threat seems to be real. I can't think of a path how this will not happen. We are living in a tricky time.
     
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  19. bdy0627

    bdy0627 Active Member

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    Once Tesla is at 5,000/week, how long until Moodys upgrades their credit rating, since they downgraded for not meeting guidance near the end of Q1? I guess it depends upon who may be influencing their decision process.
     
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  20. Unpilot

    Unpilot Active Member

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    Yep AI is scary for sure. The simplistic idea that we could keep it in its box is foolish.

    China and many other state players are working on this.
     
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