Elon says AWD and Perf orders start at end of next week!

[Garlan Garner]

Correct, we're not lumping them together for our own good. In almost every other OEM lineup, you look at the 2 different cars, you understand they're in different segments, and you go back to comparing them within their segment, not the automaker's lineup. I REALLY wish Elon would see it this way, and stop this line of thinking.

If he truly unleashed the Model 3 versus OTHER CARS IN ITS CLASS.....once the numbers rolled in on 3PLRD sales, he'd stop worrying about cannibalizing the S.

I'm not convinced Elon is thinking Model 3 vs Model S.

He explicitly stated that his concern was a profit.

See my post right above this one.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

So, potential theory here:

The S has had a number of small tweaks recently, to help differentiate it from the 3.... and since Elon is so worried about where the top-end 3 fits in the S lineup, he's either gotta nerf the 3, or bump up the S.

So.....


the 18650 deal with Panasonic is due to run out (or did run out last January, and they've mutually agreed to extend). WHAT IF......Elon can have his cake, and we can eat it too? As in: the Model 3 PLRD comes in right at P100D numbers, but now....Panasonic and Tesla have agreed to start putting 2170 packs in the S and X starting on ____? The new pack architecture will allow for faster charging speeds (as evidenced by the 3's out there already), AND a new top-end pack size of 130kWh.

It would allow the 75D to likely be sunsetted, with the new pack sizes being 90-110-130. And it would make the P130D FAST.....or quick.....or both.......



Hey.....I'm just spitballing here while waiting for our announcement.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

I haven't heard that he's worried about cannibalizing Model S sales. The only think I heard he was worried about was someone making a Model 3 reservation and getting in a 1 year line when they could get in a tremendously shorter Model S line. That's about making money NOW instead of later.

That's why he anit-sold the Model 3.




The profit margins are the same.

If I can sell something for a dollar and make $0.20 then what difference will it make if I sell something else and make $0.20 on it as well.

Because once they've made their CapEx back on Model 3 line automation, the Model 3 becomes the more attractive car for them to sell.

1. it's an economy of scale.

2. you're running "leaner", because to make that $0.20, you spent $1 to make it, instead of $1.50.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Because once they've made their CapEx back on Model 3 line automation, the Model 3 becomes the more attractive car for them to sell.

1. it's an economy of scale.

2. you're running "leaner", because to make that $0.20, you spent $1 to make it, instead of $1.50.

I thought the profit margins were $0.20 on the dollar for both cars.

That's why the Model S is more expensive to us.....because its more expensive for them to build.

Its dollar for dollar.

 

[Thomas Edison]

Am I the only one who gets a little excited every time this thread gets bumped?

 

[McRat]

The fasted measured time of an off the showroom floor model 3 is 4.6 seconds. That's the time I consider as the real time. I don't want seats removed or anything.
I'm not interested in theoretical quickness. I cant feel theoreticalness.

....

A change in tires, with no weight reduction, will make a 3LR quicker from a light, but right now, it's quicker in passing at legal speeds.
If you don't want to change tires, you have the advantage in passing time.

It has better power to weight.

That 4.6 is limited by traction, not power. So in actual daily driving situations, the Model 3LR has an edge even with Eco-Suck narrow tires. Not to measure it's large advantage in range and recharging.

 

[lklundin]

Any speculation on the down payment / deposit for AWD Performance Dual Motor?

Given the interest on this forum, I believe Tesla could get some serious profit margins on the first few thousand orders for P & AWD by simply auctioning them off right here.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

I thought the profit margins were $0.20 on the dollar for both cars.

That's why the Model S is more expensive to us.....because its more expensive for them to build.

Its dollar for dollar.

Well yea, dollar for dollar, the profit is the same, but if you're in a cash crunch, and the profit would be the same either way, you'd want to spend LESS to make the product, and the 3 will only become cheaper to produce as they ramp (hence the outlook for positive cash flow in Q2 and Q3).

Spending less money to get the product out the door means less need for a capital raise (as some on Wall Street are predicting).

 

[Garlan Garner]

A change in tires, with no weight reduction, will make a 3LR quicker from a light, but right now, it's quicker in passing at legal speeds.
If you don't want to change tires, you have the advantage in passing time.

It has better power to weight.

That 4.6 is limited by traction, not power. So in actual daily driving situations, the Model 3LR has an edge even with Eco-Suck narrow tires. Not to measure it's large advantage in range and recharging.

This is what I find difficult to swallow.

It seems like we are comparing apples to oranges.

The Model 3 has

1. different motors
2. different batteries
3. different weight
4. different size
5. different tires
6. possibly different C rates.

The 0-60 times are affected by all 6 of these things.....so how are we comparing performance versions when so many things are different between them.

So...I would just like times.

What are the 0-60 times? That's all that's important to me. What are the ranges? That's all.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Well yea, dollar for dollar, the profit is the same, but if you're in a cash crunch, and the profit would be the same either way, you'd want to spend LESS to make the product, and the 3 will only become cheaper to produce as they ramp (hence the outlook for positive cash flow in Q2 and Q3).

Spending less money to get the product out the door means less need for a capital raise (as some on Wall Street are predicting).

Exactly...so getting someone out of the 3 line ( reservationist #39640 ) to the S line....means more money for Tesla - "sooner".

Has no bearing on which car is better or worse IMHO.

 

[Garlan Garner]

BTW....Just so you all know......

The end of the week to Elon isn't Friday morning either.

Not sure if anyone has been paying attention. lol

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Exactly...so getting someone out of the 3 line ( reservationist #39640 ) to the S line....means more money for Tesla - "sooner".

Has no bearing on which car is better or worse IMHO.

Each has their own Pros and Cons. I'm in an S now, and I love it....BUT......

to get an AP2 Tesla with the range of a Model 3, I'd need to be in 100D territory. That's a serious cash outlay.

So why not get:

the newest tech? the most advanced battery (with the charging and efficiency that provides)? all the bells and whistles in the Performance trim? All at around $20,000 less than a similarly-equipped 100D?


Bonus: can fit in more parking spots in Boston in a 3 than in an S.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

BTW....Just so you all know......

The end of the week to Elon isn't Friday morning either.

Not sure if anyone has been paying attention. lol

The tweet that started this was sent at 12:48pm ET last Friday.




Don't count him out yet.

 

[Zaphod]

So, potential theory here:

The S has had a number of small tweaks recently, to help differentiate it from the 3.... and since Elon is so worried about where the top-end 3 fits in the S lineup, he's either gotta nerf the 3, or bump up the S.

So.....


the 18650 deal with Panasonic is due to run out (or did run out last January, and they've mutually agreed to extend). WHAT IF......Elon can have his cake, and we can eat it too? As in: the Model 3 PLRD comes in right at P100D numbers, but now....Panasonic and Tesla have agreed to start putting 2170 packs in the S and X starting on ____? The new pack architecture will allow for faster charging speeds (as evidenced by the 3's out there already), AND a new top-end pack size of 130kWh.

It would allow the 75D to likely be sunsetted, with the new pack sizes being 90-110-130. And it would make the P130D FAST.....or quick.....or both.......



Hey.....I'm just spitballing here while waiting for our announcement.

Reasonable and plausible in my opinion. My opinion also is that the 3 motor architecture will come over to the S and X as well to improve efficiency. I remember a few weeks back (maybe month(s)?) there was an S that had Model 3 19" wheels on it. Granted just the presence of those wheels doesn't necessarily indicate anything about the motor, but wouldn't be too far of a stretch. Same powertrain; i.e motor, half shafts, and wheel ends therefore needing the different wheels since the S and 3 stud pattern is different.

Totally possible that test mule was for something entirely different, time will only tell.

 

[McRat]

This is what I find difficult to swallow.

It seems like we are comparing apples to oranges.

The Model 3 has

1. different motors
2. different batteries
3. different weight
4. different size
5. different tires
6. possibly different C rates.

The 0-60 times are affected by all 6 of these things.....so how are we comparing performance versions when so many things are different between them.

So...I would just like times.

What are the 0-60 times? That's all that's important to me. What are the ranges? That's all.

There are only 2 factors in acceleration from a stop in all tire driven vehicles:
Traction
Power to weight

Traction is adjustable.
Power to weight favors the current 3LR over the unlocked MS75D.

Traction falls out of the equation the instant the tires bite at WOT.

Somebody is going to prove this fairly soon I imagine.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Reasonable and plausible in my opinion. My opinion also is that the 3 motor architecture will come over to the S and X as well to improve efficiency. I remember a few weeks back (maybe month(s)?) there was an S that had Model 3 19" wheels on it. Granted just the presence of those wheels doesn't necessarily indicate anything about the motor, but wouldn't be too far of a stretch. Same powertrain; i.e motor, half shafts, and wheel ends therefore needing the different wheels since the S and 3 stud pattern is different.

Totally possible that test mule was for something entirely different, time will only tell.

I can't see Tesla making the Model S less quick than it already is. Induction motors aren't as quick as Permanent Magnet.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

I can't see Tesla making the Model S less quick than it already is. Induction motors aren't as quick as Permanent Magnet.

Which is why many on the internet think that the Performance 3 may get an IM in the back, with a PM up front for traction and torque-sleep.

 

[Garlan Garner]

There are only 2 factors in acceleration from a stop in all tire driven vehicles:
Traction
Power to weight

Traction is adjustable.
Power to weight favors the current 3LR over the unlocked MS75D.

Traction falls out of the equation the instant the tires bite at WOT.

Somebody is going to prove this fairly soon I imagine.

Ok fine. However there are many factors involved in power to weight. I listed them.

One can categorize them in whatever fashion is comfortable.

 

[commasign]

If dual motor orders don’t start today, tomorrow, or Sunday, it just means our calendar is wrong.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Which is why many on the internet think that the Performance 3 may get an IM in the back, with a PM up front for traction and torque-sleep.

Yepper.....I'm one person who thinks that's a good possibility.

With the configuration you listed all Tesla would have to do is ADD to the sled that is already being produced.....They won't have to change it. That way the current sled can continue AS-IS.