Elon Says Level 5 by the end of the year....

[Sparkeur]

'Basic functionality for level 5' was his exact words:

"I'm extremely confident that level five - or essentially complete autonomy - will happen and I think will happen very quickly.

"I feel like we are very close.

"I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year.

"There are no fundamental challenges remaining.

"There are many small problems.

"And then there's the challenge of solving all those small problems and putting the whole system together."

Tesla 'very close' to full self-driving, Musk says

 

[NewbieT]

TSLA, TSLA, TSLA. He’s funny. As a shareholder I hope he’s right.

£6,800 buy buy buy? As a car owner I don’t believe it. End of which year?

 

[Sparkeur]

TSLA, TSLA, TSLA. He’s funny. As a shareholder I hope he’s right.

Me too...just watched it touch 1400$ earlier. However, as an owner with FSD....I'm OK with leaps of faith but this is over a gaping chasm....

 

[Saghost]

Three months probably, six months definitely.


I hope he’s right. He does have a history of making aggressive guesses that don’t pan out, though, especially on this topic.

Maybe we’ll get a better sense when the HW3 native, all camera integrated model neural networks we were promised soon show up.

If the problem is entirely solvable by software on the current hardware, it might come along pretty rapidly once they make the key software breakthroughs.

 

[cucubits]

It's equally possible his understanding of time flow if greatly different from the rest of the world and he actually believes it when he said "this year".

 

[DanCar]

He has a history of being so wrong on this subject 5 years running. What does it matter if he is so wrong for another 5 years?

 

[mtndrew1]

Which year?

 

[Mr Miserable]

...by the end of the year.
He said the same last year.
He was wrong then, he's wrong now and I see no reason why he won't be saying the same thing next year.

 

[Dilly]

I’ll be happy if he just stops the car flinching at every little non-existant hazard in TACC & autosteer!
If I had FSD I’d have to put the car in tranquilliser mode

 

[kavyboy]

By the end of this year?
And it's already July?
Level 5?

 

[RichardL]

I read that as 'basic functionality by the end of the year' - that does not mean it will be allowed out in the wild - it might be basically there in their testing, with a long tail of small fixes and improvements, and after that, regulatory and rollout efforts - so that implies (to me) quite a long time before it is available.

 

[jimmym1981]

I read that as 'basic functionality by the end of the year' - that does not mean it will be allowed out in the wild - it might be basically there in their testing, with a long tail of small fixes and improvements, and after that, regulatory and rollout efforts - so that implies (to me) quite a long time before it is available.

This is a tough pill to swallow. To me, basic functionality means exactly that, basic. It has ZERO to do with it actually performing or even know how to perform the functions. It's no different than a PC knowing how to boot Windows or a program...it doesnt mean the program can run.

 

[mtndrew1]

I’m certain he actually believes in his own BS and that Tesla is likely in the best fundamental position to solve L5 but this seems extremely unlikely to me, even by the end of 2021.

I’d be a very happy customer with a solid L3 product by the end of 2020 so I could largely ignore the car during my commute.

 

[Saghost]

I’m certain he actually believes in his own BS and that Tesla is likely in the best fundamental position to solve L5 but this seems extremely unlikely to me, even by the end of 2021.

I’d be a very happy customer with a solid L3 product by the end of 2020 so I could largely ignore the car during my commute.

All I really want right now is full level 3 freeway performance.

 

[cucubits]

I’d be a very happy customer with a solid L3 product by the end of 2020 so I could largely ignore the car during my commute

Yeah, that's not going to happen either. First they have to figure out the small things (phantom braking and that it'll happily plow into stationary objects).

 

[AnthonyLR]

Elon is, by default, a wild optimist. If he was not, he would not have touched Tesla in the first place. It was a crazy investment. The head of Panasonic said the same thing - he's an overly optimistic genius.

Panasonic's CEO says Elon Musk is a genius — but can be be 'overly optimistic'

However, from my perspective he always delivers. Maybe a little late, but he always delivers. And he is already a little late with FSD.

He has a core of great AI computer science people working under Andrej Karpathy and they must be telling him they can do it and how long it will take.

I have owned my M3 since late March and driven just over 1100 miles. The self driving is definitely getting smarter with each update.

I believe him when he says 2020. If it is 2021 or 2022 it's no big deal for me, I just need it to be trustworthy and not try to kill me!

 

[AndrewGR]

I was driving along a very twisty narrow country lane with no road markings and no proper passing places. I wondered what FSD would do on meeting a tractor (or indeed a cyclist) coming the other way... Then driving across a private airfield, I had to divert over the grass to avoid a plane parked on the road / taxiway. How would a car with no driver controls cope?

 

[Mr Miserable]

I was driving along a very twisty narrow country lane with no road markings and no proper passing places. I wondered what FSD would do on meeting a tractor (or indeed a cyclist) coming the other way... Then driving across a private airfield, I had to divert over the grass to avoid a plane parked on the road / taxiway. How would a car with no driver controls cope?

I suspect you haven't yet tried to get 'airside' insurance for your Tesla.

 

[mtndrew1]

I was driving along a very twisty narrow country lane with no road markings and no proper passing places. I wondered what FSD would do on meeting a tractor (or indeed a cyclist) coming the other way... Then driving across a private airfield, I had to divert over the grass to avoid a plane parked on the road / taxiway. How would a car with no driver controls cope?

I’m sure that if L5 ever comes to fruition from any automaker there will be limits on the road types it will work on and a barrier where it will cross over to finding safe harbor and aborting the process.

L5 doesn’t mean a car can drive on any surface or in any condition, it means it must be able to drive you without attention either to your destination or to safe harbor without crashing.

 

[Tam]

...trustworthy and not try to kill me!

Its smart summon is still not trustworthy even in a very slow parking lot speed.

Its inability to avoid stationary objects at highway speed is still a very time-consuming issue to be solved.

He does inject his footnotes as:

"I feel like we are very close."

Anyone can feel but can the car pass the tests is another issue.