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Elon thinks those that pre-ordered Model3 pre reveal will see cars before 2018

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by model3fan, May 7, 2016.

  1. model3fan

    model3fan Member

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    Link to tweet conversation- Elon Musk on Twitter

    Adding screenshot in case tweet goes missing screenshot.PNG

    I like his optimism!
     
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  2. garsh

    garsh Re Member

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    I assume that Elon is referring to people who ordered in the U.S.
     
  3. sunilsf

    sunilsf Member

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    And, more specifically, those that live in California.
     
  4. JeffK

    JeffK Active Member

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    Elon was saying possibly 100-200K in 2017 alone... if we conservatively estimate 100K assuming only minor supplier delays, that could hit a sizable chunk of US only pre-orders.
     
  5. Jason S

    Jason S Model S Sig Perf (P85)

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    And he has been historically optimistic. So dialing that back a little gives us:
     
  6. JeffK

    JeffK Active Member

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    Production volumes of 500,000 a year require about 41666 cars per month. The internal deadline is July 1, 2017 to begin volume production. In all likelihood it's going to be delayed and it's unknown for how long. Yet Tesla wants to be able to build internally any part that a supplier is going to offer as a low volume backup.
    Let's say out of those 41666 that only 38,000 are Model 3 with the remainder being Model S and X. If Tesla could produce at that volume for even 1-3 months in 2017 you might get deliveries in much of the US.
     
  7. Twincam23

    Twincam23 Member

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    you mean before 2019.
     
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  8. deonb

    deonb Active Member

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    And are previous owners. And Tesla / SpaceX employees.

    And willing to take delivery at 11pm on December 31st...
     
  9. BluestarE3

    BluestarE3 Active Member

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    #9 BluestarE3, May 7, 2016
    Last edited: May 7, 2016
    I'm not really counting on 2017, but since I had originally expected 1H 2019, a 2018 delivery seems reasonable to me now. Not a current Tesla owner nor do I plan to max-out, but do live in California and waited in line on 3/31.
     
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  10. S'toon

    S'toon Knows where his towel is

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  11. biosci

    biosci Member

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    Not a previous owner, prob 100 or so in line in Santa Barb. BUT, taking delivery in Chicago. Wonder if that's a 2017 late delivery or spring 2018...
     
  12. JohnSnowNW

    JohnSnowNW Active Member

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    This would really screw with my lease timetable, if true. I guess I'll have to defer...but I won't mind doing so at all. Would be great if they could actually pull that off.
     
  13. S'toon

    S'toon Knows where his towel is

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    Yeah. Me too. I was doing my planning estimates on "I'll get it in 2019."
     
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  14. Jason S

    Jason S Model S Sig Perf (P85)

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    Financially pessimistic, delivery timeline optimistic. Just means all estimates are only estimates imho.
    Late 2017 works pretty nicely for me, so I hope it is correct. As existing owner and afternoon on first day reserver for Model 3, I think being around VIN 40000'ish is an ok place to be.
     
  15. Garlan Garner

    Garlan Garner Active Member

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    Wait.....Elon Musk didn't respond to the correct person in the original post. Is this a trick?
     
  16. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    Elon said exactly that on the Q1 2016 Earnings Call last Wednesday. His target is 200K Model 3 built in 2017, but said it may be only 100K. .
     
  17. JeffK

    JeffK Active Member

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    Yes, that's what I was referring to... "100-200k"
     
  18. Drivin

    Drivin Member

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    "Seeing" a car is not the same as taking delivery, so they have a lot of wiggle room here.
     
  19. TaoJones

    TaoJones Beyond Driven

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    I'll be happy with delivery Q1 2018. Pleasantly surprised, even. And if they deliver even 10,000 cars in 2017, inclusive of employee cars, it will represent a huge win.

    This will also probably present a few buying opportunities as the stock occasionally goes on sale. That's okay too.
     
  20. houdini

    houdini Member

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    Yes this is the disappointing bit for those of us not in the USA. Doesn't really matter that we queued up and were first to reserve, pre-reveal, pre-US - before the rest of the the World. Unfortunately if they ramp fast and do 200,000 cars in 2017 we still won't see right hand rive ones until 2018.
     

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