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Elon thinks those that pre-ordered Model3 pre reveal will see cars before 2018

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by model3fan, May 7, 2016.

  1. Bimbels

    Bimbels GoldMember

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    You don't actually believe Australia or anyone outside the US would go first, from an American company based in CA, because you had the benefit of being time zones ahead?

    And you realize if they ramp up fast you are getting your car a LOT faster than you would have before they revised their plans?
     
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  2. AZ Desert Driver

    AZ Desert Driver Rare combination

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    There are a lot of parts that can be made by Tesla, but I can't see them making their own tires. or Glass. They still need some suppliers to be reliable partners.
     
  3. Booga

    Booga Member

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    Those are likely a little more run of the mill though, right? If Michelin sells 400,000 fewer tires to Toyota and sells more to tesla, it works out pretty much the same. Some of the challenges remaining might be location (California vs Midwest, etc.) of suppliers.
     
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  4. TaoJones

    TaoJones Beyond Driven

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    With 6,000+ parts and pieces per car, there's a lot of room to in-house all kinds of stuff while leaving tires and some or all of the glass components to suppliers.

    Elon's point notwithstanding, that 99% of a car's worth of parts does not a car make.
     
  5. eloder

    eloder Active Member

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    I guarantee you if RHD markets became Tesla's largest customers, they'd start doing at the very minimum simultaneous RHD launches with the US launches.

    Until then, priority-wise it's best they deliver to their biggest markets first.
     
  6. Laban

    Laban Member

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    According to Tesla, 93% of the preorders comes from people that are new to Tesla. That means that 7% of the preorders comes from current owners. That's only 28 000 out of 400 000 cars. So it's probably going to be more important to check as many checkboxes as possible.

    Then it's a question of the US vs the rest of the world deliveries, first 40-50k deliveries to the US ?
     
  7. JeffK

    JeffK Well-Known Member

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    I think 100% will go to the US until all US preorders are fulfilled and after that the rest of the world. Once the 200,000th car is delivered here in the US there's a short time period before our tax incentives decrease. They'd have to get out as many as possible up front to US customers. I feel that if they can properly ramp up on time then the rest of the world might start seeing their vehicles early or mid 2018 depending on what percentage of the preorders will end up being from the US.
     
  8. Laban

    Laban Member

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    I wonder if it would be in Teslas best interest to send as many as the first 200k Model 3's to the US. Perhaps be a bit rude to the customers standing in line at the shops in non US countries ?

    Although i guess it depends on the production-rate/number at the end of 2017. I don't think that anyone in Europe expected to get their cars in 2017 anyway.
     
  9. Jayc

    Jayc Member

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    #29 Jayc, May 8, 2016
    Last edited: May 8, 2016
    Very very unlikely 200k US preorders will be done before international orders begin. Elon has clearly stated that there will be parallel queues after the very first company employee deliveries. I can understand US customers will want to make best use of tax incentives but for a company with longer term aspirations, that is just a short term hurdle.
     
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  10. cheshire cat

    cheshire cat Member

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    judging by the fuss that's been generated in the US re: government handouts, I wonder how many will get cancelled once the cash runs out? as regards early deliveries --- even Tesla's have bugs, that's why I drive Skoda rather than AUDI but at their earliest convenience would be nice :)
     
  11. zenmaster

    zenmaster Member

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    I read multiple, regional queues which will not be processed concurrently, but sequentually. Where did this notion of "parallel" originate?
     
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  12. melindav

    melindav ☰ reserved

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    you still are looking at getting yours likely a year sooner than you had expected a week prior to the Q1 call, and I think it was clear to everyone in the right-hand drive world that those cars would follow the left-hand drive cars, so why disappointing?
     
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  13. tga

    tga Supporting Member

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    It was clear to me from reading Elon's later post-reveal tweets (around the time he announced #'s were higher than they expected; I don't have the link handy, but you can scroll through them) that the plan is not to processes queues sequentially, ie, they are not delivering every car to CA buyers before moving to the midwest/east.

    They want to deliver "enough" (who knows what that number is) cars in CA, close to the factory, so they can work out early teething pains. But that does not mean all CA cars are delivered first. Once 10k, 20k, 50k (whatever the number) cars are driving around CA, and they've got all the bugs out, expect the floodgates to open.
     
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  14. StraightDave

    StraightDave Member

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  15. Jayc

    Jayc Member

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    Probably originated at the same place where the assumption of sequential queues originated, only difference is parallel queues will be a lot fairer to everyone concerned hence Elon's later comments suggesting that will probably be what they end up doing.
     
  16. JeffK

    JeffK Well-Known Member

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    Elon's quote on twitter suggesting he was going to try to maximize tax benefits for US customers.

    Elon Musk on Twitter

    The only way to do this is to hold off after the 199,999 delivery or ship only to non-US until the Model 3 is ready, and then flood the US preorder base with Model 3s all at once. If there's any risk that US preorders will not be filled in the first two quarters then you'll see 100% go to the US (for preorders only) as quickly as possible until saturated. Once market demand can be met for the US, everything else will go overseas...

    As elon said, geographically your preorder order counts so for example once UK orders start shipping UK customers will get them in the fair order for their region.

    One would hope any other countries which have similar deadlines will get the same kind of quick rollout treatment. The problem is if Model S and X continue to sell and Model 3 is first delivered locally to Fremont, California then Tesla will hit 200,000 EVs sold in the US near the end of 2017.
     
  17. ModelNforNerd

    ModelNforNerd Active Member

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    July 1st, 2017 is just a soft supplier deadline for now. There was no mention of the assembly line going active on that day.
     
  18. JeffK

    JeffK Well-Known Member

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    Here's the direct quote from Elon:
    It's probably not wise to call it a "soft" deadline around Elon... haha. As far as they're concerned internally it's a hard deadline and for suppliers they want to hold them to that too. The consequence if the suppliers can't get their act together is that they won't be Tesla suppliers anymore. Tesla will be working with them the entire time making sure soft deadlines are met before the July 1st hard deadline.

    At the end of the day there will be delays which are unforeseen/unavoidable but they want to take the July 1st date seriously.
     
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  19. deonb

    deonb Supporting Member

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    There's at least 30'000 Model 3's in that first 200'000. Probably closer to 70'000 if they actually make the new delivery schedule.

    So the sensible thing would be to ship the first e.g. 65'000 Model 3's in the U.S. (leaving e.g. 5000 remaining for some Model S/X orders), then ship only internationally until the first day of the next quarter, and thereafter do a flood of the U.S. market alone for 6 months.

    If the line is fully operational @ 500'000/year they'd in theory be able to ship another 250'000 more U.S. orders in those 6 months that will all be eligible for the 100% tax break, bringing the total number of Model 3's able to qualify for the 100% tax break to 300'000+.
     
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  20. JeffK

    JeffK Well-Known Member

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    Exactly, everything depends on that 199,999th delivery (not matter what model it is)
     

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