Elon thinks those that pre-ordered Model3 pre reveal will see cars before 2018

[ModelNforNerd]

Here's the direct quote from Elon:


It's probably not wise to call it a "soft" deadline around Elon... haha. As far as they're concerned internally it's a hard deadline and for suppliers they want to hold them to that too. The consequence if the suppliers can't get their act together is that they won't be Tesla suppliers anymore. Tesla will be working with them the entire time making sure soft deadlines are met before the July 1st hard deadline.

At the end of the day there will be delays which are unforeseen/unavoidable but they want to take the July 1st date seriously.

I'd love to see it, but I honestly think it will slide to September. That's when Tesla and Space X employees will start taking delivery.

Then local-to-Fremont preorders.

And then in Q1 2018, they start going for volume.

Of course, that all depends on the magical 200,000 number, as Elon said he would attempt to maximize that for US customers.

 

[JeffK]

Elon believes it will slip too, even still full production would be roughly 38,000 Model 3s a month to meet 500,000 a year with models S/X. He estimated 100 - 200k Model 3s in 2017 meaning you could be spot on with your estimate.

 

[Electroman]

There is No Way they can make 100K next year, let alone 200K. July, '17 is the deadline for suppliers. Assume 3 months from that date to mass production. That leaves only 3 months left in the calendar year.

Musk said 100K to 200K. If you take the median number 150K, that means they need to do 150K units in Q4 next year. That run-rate is more than the run-rate they are aiming for in 2018. How is that possible?

I understand we are all a bit delusional when it comes to Muski'sms, but not this deranged. If they hit say around 20-25K next year, that will be a phenomenal achievement, and I would take that as Tesla being in the right track for world domination.

 

[brianman]

The internal deadline is July 1, 2017 to begin volume production.

As he feared, i think you misunderstood what he was saying in the CC. In no way was we saying volume production would begin on that date.

 

[brianman]

Yes this is the disappointing bit for those of us not in the USA. Doesn't really ...

...matter what Elon says because even when he moves up the timeframe people are "disappointed" because of speculation about what it really means. /rolleyes

 

[JeffK]

I posted the direct quote, it's referring to volume production capability ... of course there's still a validation step before actual production.

mkjayakumar
500,000 / 12 = 41666 (Model S, 3, X) per month
if we assume only 38,000 Model 3s then 3 months * 38000 units/month = 114k which is within the 100-200k number.

 

[Laban]

There is No Way they can make 100K next year, let alone 200K. July, '17 is the deadline for suppliers. Assume 3 months from that date to mass production. That leaves only 3 months left in the calendar year.

Musk said 100K to 200K. If you take the median number 150K, that means they need to do 150K units in Q4 next year. That run-rate is more than the run-rate they are aiming for in 2018. How is that possible?

Some clarification on the July '17 "impossible" date:

]Well, from an engineering standpoint, we are already almost complete with the design of Model 3. And in fact, the prototype that was driving at the [Motor Event] at the end of March was actually using the production drivetrain. So I think we feel pretty good about engineering completion of the last items probably within six to eight weeks, thereabouts. And so we're sort of completing the final release for tooling no later than the end of June. That sort of leaves roughly nine months for the tools you manufacture, which I think is an achievable timeframe. [Get] some suppliers, but it's an achievable timeframe. If you can have – you can create a human baby in nine months, you can pretty much make a tool in nine months. So that's our expectation. So then we want to have parts of production tooling starting in April next year. Still we've got three months of validation for a normal start of volume production in July.

To sum it up:

June 2016 - Design finished
April 2017 - Tools finished (internal/external), manufacturing starts
July 2017 - Validation done (3 months), volume production starts

 

[FirstSea]

I honestly don't mind waiting until early 2018 for mine as long as most of the bugs are handled by then, if I do get it late 2017 it would be a nice Christmas present.

I guess I got to increase my monthly savings.

 

[Booga]

If the full tax credit is coming, I'm a little more flexible. If it's less than $7,500, I may hold off a few years on my purchase...

 

[geoffreak]

Some clarification on the July '17 "impossible" date

Thanks for posting the quote on the "impossible" date. It's really sad to see so many people on this forum misinterpreting "impossible". The quote makes it very clear that Elon means that the date seems impossible, rather than is impossible. When listening to the earnings call he really stresses that July 1st is the date they intend to achieve and to hold suppliers to.

I think the first few sentences of this quote are what confuse people:

Now will we actually be able to achieve volume production on July 1st next year? Of course not. The reason is that even if 99% of the internally-produced and supplier items are available on July 1st, we still cannot produce the car, because you cannot produce a car that is missing 1% of its components. Nonetheless, we need to both internally and with suppliers take that date seriously and there need to be some penalties for anyone internally or externally who does not meet that timeframe.

At first glance, it seems like Elon says that there's no way to meet that date. The reality is that he's trying to convey there's a very real possibility that some supplier won't meet that date, as they have found out with the Model X. He's mentioning this on the earnings call because this is a risk that must be conveyed to investors. I think he makes it very clear that the July 1st date is the deadline and I don't believe they will miss this date (despite past evidence to the contrary with X). The X was a huge learning experience for Tesla and with the 3 being so important to their mission, they will do everything they can to make sure this launch happens without issue.

I expect the first deliveries to start mid July to employees and shortly thereafter to nearby priority reservations. There will be a period of time for ramp up, which Tesla makes clear in their 100k-200k 2017 production estimate for Model 3. With their full 500k estimate for all cars in 2018, we can infer about 90-100k Model 3s built per quarter at full production. If we take out Q4 of 2017, we have the expectation that Tesla will produce somewhere between 10k-100k in Q3. At the high end, that is Tesla building at full speed from day 1, and at the low end, that is Tesla performing a delayed or slow ramp up for 2-3 months. Somewhere in the middle results in July producing few deliveries local/employee, starting in August for the remaining priority reservations, and starting in September for line standers in the US (America's hat will likely come a few months later and Europe shortly thereafter).

 

[Laban]

Thanks for posting the quote on the "impossible" date. It's really sad to see so many people on this forum misinterpreting "impossible". The quote makes it very clear that Elon means that the date seems impossible, rather than is impossible. When listening to the earnings call he really stresses that July 1st is the date they intend to achieve and to hold suppliers to.

Yes, and i think that the important thing is that July '17 is parts including 3 months validation. That means that they can start building the possibly missing 1-2% of the parts themselves in April if needed. One could perhaps argue that it's April + tooling & validation but i don't think it's a hard date. They will meet with the suppliers on a regular basis in the 9 months of tooling period so they will probably have some information on where the problems might be before that.

And they are making sure that they are ready to build the missing parts themselves:

No, I think we are actually going to increase the amount of vertical integration that we have. I think it's very important for us to have the ability to produce almost any part on the car at will because it alleviates risk with suppliers going back to like where if 2% of supplies is not ready we can't make the car. Having the ability internally to adapt and make that 2% of parts internally it really massively reduces risks associated with the production ramp. That, I think, is a very important thing.

So maybe i'm overly optimistic but i don't think it's impossible to meet the 100-200k cars by 2017. But i would be happy if the managed to produce 50k Model 3s by then, that would still be much more then i hoped for before the conference call.

 

[Raindog1]

Some clarification on the July '17 "impossible" date:



To sum it up:

June 2016 - Design finished
April 2017 - Tools finished (internal/external), manufacturing starts
July 2017 - Validation done (3 months), volume production starts

Where would you see the 2nd reveal falling?

 

[geoffreak]

Where would you see the 2nd reveal falling?

If part 2 isn't the final reveal, then it could happen as early as two months from now.
If part 2 is just the production reveal (which seems most likely at the moment), then I would expect sometime between March and May of next year.

 

[ecarfan]

It seems to me that Part 2 of the reveal needs to occur 3-6 months before volume production begins, and then right away the first several thousand reservation holders who Tesla has chosen to get the first cars need to be allowed to configure those cars. Apparently those people will be Tesla employees who placed a reservation.

At the Burlingame Showroom/Service Center, a Tesla employee told me a majority of people who work there have made a Model 3 reservation. I'm guessing that Tesla could have over 6,000 employees who have made a reservation.

 

[MrJones390]

I ordered mine pre-reveal, am a current Tesla owner and didn't get my confirmation email until 6pm April 7th. Anyone know if this makes a difference?

 

[ecarfan]

Are you asking if getting your confirmation email a week after placing your reservation impacts your delivery date? No one outside of Tesla can answer that authoritatively, and at this point I doubt anyone inside of Tesla could either. But my personal opinion is that it doesn't matter. You are a West Coast USA Tesla owner so you are near the front of the line based on what Tesla has said. How near, I have no idea.

 

[melindav]

I ordered mine pre-reveal, am a current Tesla owner and didn't get my confirmation email until 6pm April 7th. Anyone know if this makes a difference?

an email went out to everyone (at least to that point) on April 7th. You 'should' have gotten an earlier one a day or three after you reserved... but no matter, your MyTesla page will show the reservation date.

 

[timk225]

I want to get my 3 in 17 too, but it might be better to be a bit farther down the queue in some ways. I'm on the east coast and won't be ordering many options. So let the California people with lots of money be my beta testers. Let them have the first cars and get the last minute flaws fixed before I get mine built.

I'd rather wait until the Pennsylvania road salt is gone to get mine anyhow, so April 2018 is fine with me.

 

[BluestarE3]

I ordered mine pre-reveal, am a current Tesla owner and didn't get my confirmation email until 6pm April 7th. Anyone know if this makes a difference?

What date does your MyTesla account show as your reservation date?

 

[ecarfan]

So let the California people with lots of money be my beta testers.

Since Tesla employees were allowed to make the first reservations, my guess is that those employees on the west coast (Which is where the vast majority of them are) will receive the earliest cars built. A further incentive for Tesla to produce high quality Model 3's right away: the people building them will be the people who will be owning them!