Elon Tweet: Model 3

[ZachShahan]

It is a completely different market AND Tesla is a completely different company. I'm happy to have both meet in the middle. However, if you peruse this forum and Tesla's FB page for starters, you'll find that there's a rather large segment of people around the world waiting with bated breath for the Model 3. Tesla can keep right on truckin' as they are and they'll have plenty of reservations to fill without having to cater differently to the market.

It's going to be a crazy-ass internet shitstorm when people can reserve the Model 3. Curious how fast reservations will hit 1000 (or 10,000 for that matter). Any guesses? (I know, would be nice to know the $ of a reservation.)

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Just curious. Couple of you folks who are current Model S owners are saying you're going to buy Model 3s. Would this be as a second car? Or "downgrading?" Model S too big for your needs/tastes? Some other reason I'm not thinking of atm?

As a non-owner, I will say that I'm considering a Model S (can afford one without problem) but frankly prefer smaller cars and still not sure I "value" the extras of an S that much more than a hypothetical 3. While I'm thinking I'll lease a Model S for a few years, I'm actually more excited about the Model 3 (for many reasons) and could see myself putting down even $10,000 for it, waiting a few years, and then dropping the S. But hard to say at this point, of course.

 

[dhanson865]

Yes I have always thought that the free super chargers was the weak link in the Tesla marketing plan. It will be interesting to see how they deal with much larger customer numbers.

In the mean time, I am really looking forward to 2016 and any details on the Model 3 design.

They'll have to announce that plan before the reservations start or people will cry bait and switch.

Even if they do it before March 2016 it'll upset some and be used as ammo for the "they'll never meet the promised price point" detractors.

I would love to see the Model 3 come in at price target and still have free supercharging for life but I'm expecting there to be some asterisk / announcement / change between now and then.

 

[EVNow]

This is a very common refrain. I'm comfortable with "Tesla aren't idiots, they'll cover this angle either by using the increased revenues to build out the SC network as needed, or some other way."

There won't be a perfect demand-supply match - even though Tesla aren't idiots. Resource contention is inevitable.

BTW, when it was announced that S40 wouldn't have SC capability a lot of us who wanted to get S40 were complaining in a thread. There were S85 buyers who actually wrote that they were happy they don't have to share the SC space with S40 owners. Just imagine when these "elites" have to share with the masses ... oh, the horrors.

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It's going to be a crazy-ass internet shitstorm when people can reserve the Model 3. Curious how fast reservations will hit 1000 (or 10,000 for that matter). Any guesses? (I know, would be nice to know the $ of a reservation.)

I posted this before - but here it is again. Of course Leaf reservation was only $99 - but emails were sent out inviting only pre-registered users to reserve. But there were hard core EV fans reserving - since the only other available EV at that time was the Roadster. EVs are a lot more well known now and 3 will be relatively a better car than Leaf.

This is the rate at which Leaf got reservations.

6,000 in the first 2 days @ 3,000/day
3,000 in the next 22 days @ 135/day
3,000 in the next 3 days @ 1,000/day
6,000 in the next 85 days @ 70/day.
1,000 in the next 28 days @ 35/day

 

[gregincal]

So what you're saying is that those who get reservations are going to be forced into buying higher level options like the sigs? That doesn't exactly make sense.

If I have reservation #3 and I want mine bargain basement, why wouldn't I be able to order it without any upgrades? I understand the sigs have limited configuration options, but the general reservations?

Certainly you can configure it any way you want, but it affects when you get the car. If you were Model S reservation #3 and ordered standard suspension you had to wait 4-5 months extra to get your car. When you go to configure it says when various configs go into production.

 

[Larry Chanin]

Wait till the unwashed masses start "hogging" the super chargers

This is a very common refrain. I'm comfortable with "Tesla aren't idiots, they'll cover this angle either by using the increased revenues to build out the SC network as needed, or some other way."

There won't be a perfect demand-supply match - even though Tesla aren't idiots. Resource contention is inevitable.

BTW, when it was announced that S40 wouldn't have SC capability a lot of us who wanted to get S40 were complaining in a thread. There were S85 buyers who actually wrote that they were happy they don't have to share the SC space with S40 owners. Just imagine when these "elites" have to share with the masses ... oh, the horrors.

There undoubtedly will be periodic Supercharger congestion. However, as brand awareness has grown Tesla has already experienced less reluctance on the part of prospective host locations. I expect that to continue to increase and there will be an increase in locations actually seeking Tesla out as a means of promoting their own businesses.

I believe that by the time the Model 3 starts being produced in several hundreds of thousands per year that there won't be just Teslas accessing the Supercharger network. I expect other EV manufacturers who are serious about building a large number of long distance EVs will finally see the light, partner with Tesla, pay the admission fee to gain access to the network and do their share to expand it either directly or via financial contributions.

At this point the Tesla charging specification will become the de facto fast charging standard. Seeing that a true standard has finally arrived will stimulate many others to invest in expanding the network. I expect sustainable business models to emerge in building the Supercharger network. They may charge a fee, but it is also likely that host businesses will subsidize them.

During the transistion to sustainable business models, Tesla will have to continue to stay in front of the issue by building more stations, increasing the number of stalls at existing stations, increasing the capacity of existing Superchargers, maybe building Battery Swapping Stations, etc. It will be a challenge.

Larry

 

[EVNow]

I believe that by the time the Model 3 starts being produced in several hundreds of thousands per year that there won't be just Teslas accessing the Supercharger network. I expect other EV manufacturers who are serious about building a large number of long distance EVs will finally see the light, partner with Tesla, pay the admission fee to gain access to the network and do their share to expand it either directly or via financial contributions.

This will not happen - not by the time 3 comes around anyway. Their egos and reluctance to be dependent on a competitor for strategic resources will not let a major OEM use Tesla's network unless/until they are in bankruptcy court (couple decades from now?).

BTW, the network problem is really a US problem. In japan CHAdeMO is so prevalent, Tesla was forced to adopt it. In Europe the OEMS can lobby governments to spend enough money to make CSS ubiquitous. US will remain a battle ground.

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

My first is the TMS, the second is also an EV - eGolf, and the Model 3 will likely replace the eGolf which I have on lease for three years --- so perfect timing =)

I'm looking at the mirror here!

 

[jgs]

Speaking of the Model 3, today I happened to be parked next to a person who said they had seen one of the Tesla clay mockups. No information that isn't pretty well known already – about the same size as a Volt. Appearance similar to a Model S, a bit taller. That was all I got. Oh, also the person had seen a Model X in the last couple days, driving on M14 in southeast Michigan. Described it as "big, very big".

 

[wallet.dat]

Speaking of the Model 3, today I happened to be parked next to a person who said they had seen one of the Tesla clay mockups. No information that isn't pretty well known already – about the same size as a Volt. Appearance similar to a Model S, a bit taller. That was all I got. Oh, also the person had seen a Model X in the last couple days, driving on M14 in southeast Michigan. Described it as "big, very big".

And I could totally live with that

 

[ryanjm]

Speaking of the Model 3, today I happened to be parked next to a person who said they had seen one of the Tesla clay mockups. No information that isn't pretty well known already – about the same size as a Volt. Appearance similar to a Model S, a bit taller. That was all I got. Oh, also the person had seen a Model X in the last couple days, driving on M14 in southeast Michigan. Described it as "big, very big".

Hasn't Elon said the 3 will be sized similarly to a BMW 3 series sedan? And isn't the Volt smaller than that? Could just be this person was misinterpreting the size, but I'm taking this with a golf-ball-size grain of salt.

 

[gregincal]

Hasn't Elon said the 3 will be sized similarly to a BMW 3 series sedan? And isn't the Volt smaller than that? Could just be this person was misinterpreting the size, but I'm taking this with a golf-ball-size grain of salt.

The 2016 Volt is 180" versus 182" for the 3 series (and prior to 2012 the 3 series was 178"). The current Volt is 177".

 

[EVNow]

Speaking of the Model 3, today I happened to be parked next to a person who said they had seen one of the Tesla clay mockups. No information that isn't pretty well known already – about the same size as a Volt. Appearance similar to a Model S, a bit taller.

Volt, Leaf, Prius, BMW 3 etc etc are all C class. That is exactly what Model 3 will be.

X is similar to S - but taller. So may be 3 will be shorter, but taller.

 

[MassModel3]

Just curious. Couple of you folks who are current Model S owners are saying you're going to buy Model 3s. Would this be as a second car? Or "downgrading?" Model S too big for your needs/tastes? Some other reason I'm not thinking of atm?

The Model S is a big car, do doubt about it. My wife loves to drive it, but she has trouble pulling it in and out of the garage -- there's VERY little clearance for the mirrors through the garage door. So for her, it'll be a Model 3 fully (mostly) loaded. I'll keep the 2013 Model S (what a comfortable driving experience!) unless I get completely jealous of all the bells and whistles hers has, in which case I may think about trading in for a Model 3 myself (doubtful).

 

[1208]

Can't wait to modify my 3 to make it look like a ricer, got some spare plywood and gloss paint in the garage.

I'll be able to park next to you lot with your S's and X's at the Super chargers and be finally part of the Tesla owners club.

 

[MassModel3]

The Model S is a big car, do doubt about it.

So that was supposed to say, "The Model S is a big car, no doubt about it." :redface:

The 2016 Volt is 180" versus 182" for the 3 series (and prior to 2012 the 3 series was 178"). The current Volt is 177".

I really don't understand why so many people are caught up in a couple/few inches one way or the other. I know I'm not going to be able to look at the final product and tell if it's 177 inches or 182 inches. Big deal and who cares??

Add to that the fact that in an electric, any length in the front of the car is solely there for looks and crash protection. The only thing we know for certain is that it'll be smaller than the S, and garage owners around the world will be grateful for that, as will city drivers who would find the S just waaay too big. I was foolish enough to drive my S past Fenway Stadium just as a Red Sox game was letting out, and OMG, the S is not the car for a busy and hectic city. It's just too wide and too long.

 

[physicsfita]

So that was supposed to say, "The Model S is a big car, no doubt about it." :redface:


I really don't understand why so many people are caught up in a couple/few inches one way or the other. I know I'm not going to be able to look at the final product and tell if it's 177 inches or 182 inches. Big deal and who cares??

Add to that the fact that in an electric, any length in the front of the car is solely there for looks and crash protection. The only thing we know for certain is that it'll be smaller than the S, and garage owners around the world will be grateful for that, as will city drivers who would find the S just waaay too big. I was foolish enough to drive my S past Fenway Stadium just as a Red Sox game was letting out, and OMG, the S is not the car for a busy and hectic city. It's just too wide and too long.

Don't forget front motors for an AWD version...

 

[gregincal]

So that was supposed to say, "The Model S is a big car, no doubt about it." :redface:


I really don't understand why so many people are caught up in a couple/few inches one way or the other. I know I'm not going to be able to look at the final product and tell if it's 177 inches or 182 inches. Big deal and who cares??

Add to that the fact that in an electric, any length in the front of the car is solely there for looks and crash protection. The only thing we know for certain is that it'll be smaller than the S, and garage owners around the world will be grateful for that, as will city drivers who would find the S just waaay too big. I was foolish enough to drive my S past Fenway Stadium just as a Red Sox game was letting out, and OMG, the S is not the car for a busy and hectic city. It's just too wide and too long.

I think my whole point was to show that the Volt and the 3 series are basically the same size car.

 

[Krugerrand]

I think my whole point was to show that the Volt and the 3 series are basically the same size car.

So, you aren't sure that was your point? :tongue: Just yanking your chain.

 

[RobStark]

I really don't understand why so many people are caught up in a couple/few inches one way or the other. I know I'm not going to be able to look at the final product and tell if it's 177 inches or 182 inches. Big deal and who cares??

Nobody cares about the exact length of the car but do care if they have enough knee room or have room for all their stuff in the trunk or in the hatch area.

While Model 3 will be similar in length to Volt,3 Series,and LEAF 2.0 the Tesla will be about 4" wider.


No one cares about width of a car per se but many/most do care Model 3 will have significantly more shoulder and hip room.

Not everyone is a waif Parisian model.

 

[AustinPowers]

The good news is that due to the smaller size, the German demand will be quite low so there'll be more left for the Americans.

????
Actually it should be the exact opposite: due to the smaller size, the German demand for Model 3 could potentially be enormous.
Remember, the Model S (and Model X) are far too large for our roads, standard parking space sizes etc. A Tesla BEV the size (and price) of a BMW 3-series, with a 200 mile range and all of Tesla's advanced EV goodies should be able to finally let the German EV adoption skyrocket.

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I really don't understand why so many people are caught up in a couple/few inches one way or the other. I know I'm not going to be able to look at the final product and tell if it's 177 inches or 182 inches. Big deal and who cares??

Ever driven in Europe? Five inches can mean the difference between finding a parking space or having to give up the search, head back to the outskirts and use P&R (or walk a couple of miles, which you wouldn't do if you intend to go inner city shopping with the whole family).