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Battery costs ....
At $200/kWh we are looking at $15k for bigger 75kWh battery and under $12k for smaller battery i.e. $15k / $12k
Add 25% margin to get to $19k / $15k.
At $150/kWh that becomes $14k / $9k.
At $100/kWh it becomes $9k / $7k
I figure starting costs of the batteries will be around $15k / $10k. That leaves $25k for the car, motor and inverter. And that is what I expect from model 3 ... and $25k gas-car-equivalent EV with 300 mile range with $15k premium.
That is a big $10k step up over (a single example) of competition that is offering a $15k gas-car-equvalent EV with 200 miles of range for similar end price at $25k premium.
Every other examples of competition offer EVs with much less range and/or with larger premium.
At $200/kWh we are looking at $15k for bigger 75kWh battery and under $12k for smaller battery i.e. $15k / $12k
Add 25% margin to get to $19k / $15k.
At $150/kWh that becomes $14k / $9k.
At $100/kWh it becomes $9k / $7k
I figure starting costs of the batteries will be around $15k / $10k. That leaves $25k for the car, motor and inverter. And that is what I expect from model 3 ... and $25k gas-car-equivalent EV with 300 mile range with $15k premium.
That is a big $10k step up over (a single example) of competition that is offering a $15k gas-car-equvalent EV with 200 miles of range for similar end price at $25k premium.
Every other examples of competition offer EVs with much less range and/or with larger premium.
Yes, they have yet to announce specs. But these are my expectations, based on tweets by Musk and all other available information. I'm also being a bit conservative - I think the Model 3 will be able to charge at something like ~150 kW, I think it will do 0-60 mph in 2.8 seconds, I think the range for the 75D will be 305 miles and I think the P75D with full self driving and towing will cost 65,500 USD.
If Tesla fails to meet my slightly conservative expectations, I will be disappointed. *A lot* more disappointed than by the lack of HUD (which I had no expectations would be offered). At least my expectations are based on some modicum of information, while the HUD was pure unadulterated speculation.
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The Model 3 user interface is finally revealed 
Elon Musk Launches Neuralink to Connect Brains With Computers
Elon Musk Launches Neuralink to Connect Brains With Computers
Thomas Edison
Active Member
Sorry, but he said no new tech in the model 3. Gonna have to ask the model S/X guys what they think of it after a few weeks of actual use in the car.
The Model 3 user interface is finally revealed
Elon Musk Launches Neuralink to Connect Brains With Computers
You mean those few left after all the cancellations because that neural plug won't allow full 4k resolution from the get go?
diamond.g
Active Member
I would expect the P75D to at least be 75k-80k USD. Probably nearing 100k for the Ludicrous option. Anything cheaper than that would be very nice.
Why do we think Ludicrous would be separate? It's been a standard part of S and X for a while on every P. Do we think the 3 will start with the original setup option-wise to break things up and make the pieces cost less (price-wise)?
diamond.g
Active Member
Maybe. To be honest I am not sure if they can get the volts and amps needed out of the 75kWh pack to do ludicrous (based on the existing 75kWh pack). Maybe someone with a 75 can use one of the tools to see what the max amp draw (we know the voltage is 350) is.
Elon has said the 3 will have Ludicrous. (Subject to change, later delivery, modification of plans... as we all saw last Thursday!!) So, my point really was: IF/WHEN it has it, I assume it's a part of every P as on the current S and X lines.
On a more serious note (than Neuralink), Elon just tweeted a reply to a 'begging request' for a central speedometer (meaning centered on the driver) with the response 'No'.
Nick G @nickg_uk
@elonmusk But but but... Can we PLEASE have a central speedometer in the 3 for those of us who don't want autopilot /beg
in reply to @nickg_uk
Elon Musk @elonmusk
@nickg_uk No
Nick G @nickg_uk
@elonmusk But but but... Can we PLEASE have a central speedometer in the 3 for those of us who don't want autopilot
/begin reply to @nickg_uk
Elon Musk @elonmusk
@nickg_uk No
The current 75 kWh pack isn't at all relevant. Different cells, different architecture, different cooling, different everything. I would expect at least 400V.
A 75 kWh pack should be able to give out close to 400 kW, which is a lot in a lighter car than the Model S. It will be slower than the Model S, though.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Critics of the first iPhone were both right and wrong. The battery life did suck, it wasn't as secure, and you couldn't type emails/texts as quickly. But what it COULD do turned out to be much more important than what it couldn't do, which in turn created so many more uses (and users) for smartphones. Aesthetically, it blew other phones out of the water.
So in many ways, I do see why Telsa is betting the farm on autonomous driving. Things like instant torque, zero tailpipe emissions, less engine maintenance are nice, but ultimately aren't enough to make EVs more than a niche product. For the market to take off, they really have to transform transportation in the same way that iPhones transformed phones. But having said all that, Tesla isn't there yet on that piece and that means design/aesthetics will be crucial to charging a premium price for a premium product.
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Garlan Garner
Banned
I pull for Tela and their objectives, however I'm not pulling for them more than I'm pulling for myself.
You are correct. the first IPhone was garbage, however the M3 is NOT the first Tesla. I think its fair to have expectations of Tesla since they have showed their hand already. What if Apple produced a new IPhone "right now" that had less features than the IPhone 2 - JUST to make a phone that everyone can afford. Smaller screen than IPhone 2. Smaller Battery life than IPhone 2. And the fact that the new IPhone won't be able to text or get email like the original IPhone 1.
Sound familiar?
Perfectly consistent with the statement "no new consumer-facing technology..." This is not consumer-facing, it's inside the consumer, thus no need for a HUD since there will be IHD (Inside head display). Bluntly, I need more memory anyway, and some extra processing power would also be quite welcome.The Model 3 user interface is finally revealed
Elon Musk Launches Neuralink to Connect Brains With Computers
I'd bet you'll be able to get all of those things, although they won't be in the base model.
In my original post on this a few pages back, I was clear this was MY assessment. There are 2 halves of the equation. For the ICE half, I'm relying on personal experience with detailed cost accounting for a certain luxury brand... cannot provide without violating confidentiality. For the BEV half, there are ample sources for component costs and cost per kW that have been cited on this forum. @WarpedOne shows sensitivity in his post at top of this page. Where we all have to guess is the level of improvement due to gigafactory. I'm pretty aggressive on that. If I'm wrong, the answer may be 8k rather than 6k. I really doubt the difference is more than that in base Model 3.
Garlan Garner
Banned
The M3 does not appear to be simply a cheaper car. It appears to be a lesser car.
I was thinking that the option of great features such as the wonderful glass roof and 20" wheels and such....that the design was going be very attractive on the inside as well as the outside. Well, I haven't officially seen it yet, however its being described by Elon is a far inferior car than the MS and MX.
Its NOT going to be spaceship like.
Its NOT going to be mesmerizing as it was described in the past.
Fine.
Now, Price. How much is this lesser car worth?
I hope Tesla isn't just selling an EV in the M3.
I want to buy a TESLA - not just an EV. Some folks understand what I'm saying.
I was thinking that the option of great features such as the wonderful glass roof and 20" wheels and such....that the design was going be very attractive on the inside as well as the outside. Well, I haven't officially seen it yet, however its being described by Elon is a far inferior car than the MS and MX.
Its NOT going to be spaceship like.
Its NOT going to be mesmerizing as it was described in the past.
Fine.
Now, Price. How much is this lesser car worth?
I hope Tesla isn't just selling an EV in the M3.
I want to buy a TESLA - not just an EV. Some folks understand what I'm saying.
