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Elon tweets - count @ 198k & rethinking prod - east coast doomed?

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by model3fan, Apr 1, 2016.

  1. model3fan

    model3fan Member

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    I'm happy the Model 3 orders are taking off, but as an east coaster ordering close to a base model, I can't help but be worried I won't be getting my car for years... at what point will east coasters who waited in line (even for base model) be considered before people ordering on days 2 to day 365 and beyond I wonder.

    elontweets.PNG
     
    • Informative x 1
  2. Bimbels

    Bimbels GoldMember

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    I'd say the rethink production planning part will include revising certain aspects of their deliveries - and hopefully starting with more production lines than originally planned to keep things moving...as an east coaster I am hoping we won't have to wait until the end of North America deliveries. There is significant interest in the East and I would think that is a good number of US reservations.
     
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  3. sandpiper

    sandpiper Active Member

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    I would say to be careful about assuming that all of those reservations will turn into orders. A lot will change in 2 years. Plus, it's better to have excess demand than excess supply; one is profitable, the other is not.
     
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  4. rayng

    rayng Member

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    that little fremont factory better ramp fast or lose a lot of this momentum. while some of us have waited as many as 4 years for the x, few first time tesla 3 reservation holders will be as patient. what will it take to add capacity at the fremont plant? triple shifts?
     
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  5. model3fan

    model3fan Member

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    Agree demand is good, but it's a bummer if day 1 orders to keep getting pushed farther and farther down the rabbit hole. Must remember, in Elon I trust...
     
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  6. x_ray

    x_ray Member

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    Those Tesla workers are about to be pushed 10 times harder than they already are.
     
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  7. tigerade

    tigerade Member

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    I was planning on waiting until Tesla actually started producing Model 3 cars before ordering. But with the surge of reservations, I was starting to get scared that I wouldn't be able to buy a car until mid 2019 or beyond if I didn't reserve. So I reserved today. I would anticipate getting the car in mid or late 2018 and I am fine with that.
     
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  8. DrManhattan

    DrManhattan Member

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    I bet 25% of those orders don't go through. Surely more will pre-order, but you will jump them in the queue. But yes, you're kinda screwed on the East Coast. Minimum 6-9 month wait I bet.
     
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  9. timber107

    timber107 Member

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    doesn't look good for people needing the fed tax credit to make a purchase, if these reservations turn in to sales....
     
  10. Stoneymonster

    Stoneymonster Active Member

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    It's a phase out not a cutoff.
     
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  11. jstoneman

    jstoneman Member

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    I'll be they can do 75k in the first year. 125k in 2019. 200k in 2020. They've got the demand on the books. Which bank wouldn't invest in a company with a problem like that? They'll get it done! WAY TO GO TESLA!
     
  12. bredi

    bredi Member

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    I bet for those 25% that dropout, more than 50% will order from now until production.
    What a good problem to have.
     
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  13. vortexz

    vortexz Member

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    What If I am from Europe ? :(
    I am from Eu and made a reservation ...
    How much should I wait ? 2020 ?
     
  14. timber107

    timber107 Member

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    I know... I believe it gets cut in half the first year after 200,000 U.S sales
     
  15. vjason

    vjason Member

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    This builds on what I said yesterday.

    How can you prioritize based on multiple factors (employee, existing owner, location, option level) when you have at least 18 months until launch?

    My reservation went through at 10:11AM yesterday and I am on the east coast. At what point do all those higher on the "order food chain" no longer get priority over me?

    There has to be SOME advantage to having stood in line for 6 hours yesterday to reserve right when the store opened. At some point, new orders have to stop having priority over older ones regardless of whether or not they should based on all the factors I referenced above.
     
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  16. ELRev

    ELRev Member

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    And those are a gross underestimate of what they hope to produce. 500k cars in 2020 would be primarily Model 3s. 200k that year is a very conservative estimate.
     
  17. ImEric

    ImEric Member

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    They're now up over 215 Million in cash so far from Model ≡ orders, and most people can't part with $1000.00 for 2 years (which means a lot of people will have to wait until they can get one to reserve it). Phenomenal! I'm curious to see how all of the "skeptics" at Seeking Alpha will turn this into a negative. I'm sure that they'll pull out the crystal ball and predict that only 17 of the reservations will actually convert to orders, or they'll say that once the Bolt comes out, people will flock to it instead. Then, when the Bolt comes out and we keep our ≡ reservations, It'll be "There's no real demand for electric cars, those aren't real reservations!"

    Or maybe there's some other boogieman on the horizon like "BMW is making a Model ≡ competitor due out in 2024!!!" or they'll assume that we don't know about the Tax credit expiration, or that 35k is only for the base model... even though I'm pretty sure everyone knows that, plus 37k is for a base model Bolt, as well. And for most people I've spoken with (myself included) the possibility of $7500.00 off doesn't determine whether or not we're buying the car. It more so just effects what options we'll get. I'm in L.A. I don't need dual motors, but for 45k after the tax credit, and CA rebate, you bet I'll have dual motors and an upgraded battery! I would guess that more than 70% of reservations are Model S aspirants who either prefer a smaller car, or can't afford the S, and we'll be converting those reservations to purchases when the time comes... and this comes from someone who hates the idea of having the speedometer off to the side.

    Seriously, TSLA shorts have to be Sh***ing themselves right about now.
     
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  18. ImEric

    ImEric Member

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    There already is. Everybody who's otherwise in your circumstance (non-owner, non-employee, lives in NC, ordering the same trim as you) will be behind you.

    That said... I get your point. I'm in L.A., so I could walk in today and get the same trim as you, but get mine first. I see your frustration.
     
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  19. jtpassat

    jtpassat Member

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    only time will tell... so many things can change in 18+ months
     
  20. HopeToGolf

    HopeToGolf New Member

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    I hope the first level of priority is by day and then rank according to their "factors." The idea that a non-owner/employee from CA who reserved today could receive a similarly equipped car before an east coast non-owner/employee just does not seem quite right.
     

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