Elon & Twitter

[mongo]

Do you mean you're hopeful that Twitter was misreporting or that his misunderstanding of mDAU is clarified to the point he decides to walk?

Given TWTR SEC filings directly call out that I (or any single individual) can count as multiple mDAU (with multiple accounts), it's all somewhat equivalent to "Whose Line Is It Anyway?"...

 

[Rarity]

Elon tilting at windmills again.
I can't believe he's this naive.

Not a good take. Over the past decade, it seems that Twitter has done its best to not take the opportunities available to it. Everything from images and video with too much compression to gimped content discovery. There is no real good reason why Musk can't simply take those opportunities from the cornucopia of ideas, while competing against Instagram, YouTube, TikTok, Snap, WeChat, Venmo/Paypal, and JP Morgan.

To do so, Musk must raise the trust level between Twitter and its users dramatically (going both ways). Spam and scam is a trust-killer. And the gating item for all of this is his team's ability to ship product and iterate.

 

[mspohr]

Not a good take. Over the past decade, it seems that Twitter has done its best to not take the opportunities available to it. Everything from images and video with too much compression to gimped content discovery. There is no real good reason why Musk can't simply take those opportunities from the cornucopia of ideas, while competing against Instagram, YouTube, TikTok, Snap, WeChat, Venmo/Paypal, and JP Morgan.

To do so, Musk must raise the trust level between Twitter and its users dramatically (going both ways). Spam and scam is a trust-killer. And the gating item for all of this is his team's ability to ship product and iterate.

I thought his goal was "absolute free speech".
Making the most of opportunities requires a different set of principles.

 

[EVNow]

I thought his goal was "absolute free speech".
Making the most of opportunities requires a different set of principles.

Yes - if he leaves Twitter policies largely intact (just have open source algorithm - whatever that means for a ML based algo and transparent moderation) and concentrates on other improvements, it will be fine. He needs to get a good CEO for that.

If he wants to concentrate on "free speech" that will not moderate abusive content, then Twitter will soon become like 8chan and go bankrupt.

 

[Rarity]

I thought his goal was "absolute free speech".
Making the most of opportunities requires a different set of principles.

Don't think any of his goals are mutually exclusive. Haven't heard any of mention of such.

 

[Discoducky]

LOL. So much for all the people saying here saying he waived due diligence, so he has no choice but to just pay up $44B. They are desperate to sell twitter. They will not find a buyer who will pay more money.

Anyway - this will be fun. I hope he finds enough problems to walk out.

This says he did waive due diligence...and that he's only getting public data, not the complete cohort Twitter uses.

Elon Musk will get user data "firehose" from Twitter

This isn't the data Musk needs to prove or disprove his hunch about how many users are bots.

www.axios.com

 

[Daniel in SD]

LOL. So much for all the people saying here saying he waived due diligence, so he has no choice but to just pay up $44B. They are desperate to sell twitter. They will not find a buyer who will pay more money.

I haven't seen even the biggest Elon fanboys saying he's getting a good deal at $44 billion. haha.
I think we can assume that the Twitter board is doing whatever they think will maximize the chances of closing the deal at the agreed upon price.

 

[Buckminster]

I haven't seen even the biggest Elon fanboys saying he's getting a good deal at $44 billion. haha.

Ahem....

 

[bkp_duke]

I haven't seen even the biggest Elon fanboys saying he's getting a good deal at $44 billion.

Depends upon your investment window and what Elon does with Twitter.

At 44B, TWTR is still just 1/12th the market cap of Meta Platforms (Facebook), which would arguably the core competitor of Twitter. That leaves a lot of room for future growth.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Depends upon your investment window and what Elon does with Twitter.

At 44B, TWTR is still just 1/12th the market cap of Meta Platforms (Facebook), which would arguably the core competitor of Twitter. That leaves a lot of room for future growth.

Looks like Meta's revenue is 23 times TWTR.
On the other hand we know that Twitter has loyal and hard working employees who can't wait to work with Elon.

 

[advocate8]

As someone who has worn on his sleeve, his chest, his cap and his back his disdain for Twitter since well before it became a publicly-owned company, and used this platform to express that as often as propriety and probity permit, I acknowledge those who hold differing views of that company may view any comments I put forth with suspicion. That’s fair enough - most of us are human.

That out of the way - taking as a whole the points raised in the prior score or so of posts, how (this is not a rhetorical “how” but a request for an answer) can one reconcile Mr Musk’s intelligence and perspicacity with what appears to be a vast misunderstanding of some supremely basic and important negative features of Twitter? A misunderstanding on the order of several tens of billions of dollars?

I ask this not because I am hoping to have my opinion of Twitter changed. Rather, so that I need not change my opinion of Mr Musk.

It’s pretty simple. He is addicted to tweeting like it is heroin, thinks Twitter is much much more important to humanity than it ever possibly could be... and being extravagantly impulsive cut a deal that even he almost instantly realized was a horrific mistake and ever since has been trying to find a way out.
Twitter isn’t profitable, has no path TO profitability no matter what genius is in charge, and on top of that has plunged in market value. Just as his net worth also dropped sharply.
In the end, it seems likely he will need to eat the $1 billion penalty and deal with whatever lawsuits come his way, especially since he waived his rights to due diligence. But until he accepts that reality we are going to be treated to the spectacle of him badmouthing Twitter in various ways spinning it as fraudulent for things he and we already knew about the company, in a frantic attempt not to pay up.
While occasionally tweeting unflattering pics of Bill Gate’s potbelly.

 

[Daniel in SD]

 

[EVNow]

….that he's only getting public data, not the complete cohort Twitter uses.

Elon Musk will get user data "firehose" from Twitter

This isn't the data Musk needs to prove or disprove his hunch about how many users are bots.

www.axios.com

If that is the case, we are back to square one. Elon’s lawyers will send another letter and nobody gets $44B.

PS: It’s quite simple - either Twitter and Elon will be in a lengthy court case or Twitter has to convince Elon, their numbers are right. Twitter is the seller and Elon is the buyer - the onus is on Twitter.

 

[Daniel in SD]

If that is the case, we are back to square one. Elon’s lawyers will send another letter and nobody gets $44B.

PS: It’s quite simple - either Twitter and Elon will be in a lengthy court case or Twitter has to convince Elon, their numbers are right. Twitter is the seller and Elon is the buyer - the onus is on Twitter.

What about the specific performance clause?
I've seen a lot of analyses like this:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1525481890643337216

 

[advocate8]

If that is the case, we are back to square one. Elon’s lawyers will send another letter and nobody gets $44B.

PS: It’s quite simple - either Twitter and Elon will be in a lengthy court case or Twitter has to convince Elon, their numbers are right. Twitter is the seller and Elon is the buyer - the onus is on Twitter.

It IS simple. Elon in many ways already bought it, under the terms he wanted. now he is trying to change the terms before he pays up. that is all that’s going on.

 

[EVNow]

What about the specific performance clause?
I've seen a lot of analyses like this:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1525481890643337216

It IS simple. Elon in many ways already bought it, under the terms he wanted. now he is trying to change the terms before he pays up. that is all that’s going on.

I'm sure the court will look into all these in great detail over the next few years.

But the question is - does Twitter board want a lengthy court case ?

Obviously if Elon thinks Twitter is not being truthful (or I guess the deal is no good) - he is not going to cough up $44B. This is not the first or the last M&A case that would go to court anyway. For Elon it would be far cheaper to go to court than pay up ...

 

[AudubonB]

Admittedly, I didn't first-hand verify the information, but it's pathetic regardless.

Opposite end of the spectrum from Tesla, a company whos' BoD believes in the company and the product enough to put their money where their mouth is.


Also, just curious, where your 260k shares that you found recently granted? Per Twitter's filings I believe the BoD is granted shares annually as part of their compensation, and they just had a shareholder meeting. Would be entire plausible that both numbers are accurate, for their respective time periods, because the BoD is granted shares and then sells them off as soon as they vest?

Ha! I got it from your post!!! I took the shares outstanding and applied to that the percentages shown in the tweet you posted.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I'm sure the court will look into all these in great detail over the next few years.

But the question is - does Twitter board want a lengthy court case ?

Obviously if Elon thinks Twitter is not being truthful (or I guess the deal is no good) - he is not going to cough up $44B. This is not the first or the last M&A case that would go to court anyway. For Elon it would be far cheaper to go to court than pay up ...

The problem is the Twitter board has zero reason to believe that providing more information to Musk that is not required by the merger agreement will increase the chances of the deal closing. It is obvious he wants to back out of the deal! And of course they were already wary of doing a deal with him in the first place. They put the specific performance and waiving due diligence clauses in the contract because he's erratic and they don't trust him.
They have zero control over whether or not there will be a lengthy court case. The court could force Elon to pay up (he has the money).

 

[SilverString]

It IS simple. Elon in many ways already bought it, under the terms he wanted. now he is trying to change the terms before he pays up. that is all that’s going on.

Wrong. Terms were based on the Twitter SEC filings, which were way wrong at stating there was a 5% bot population when it appears to be 20% or more. No different than a corporation cooking the books to make stocks more attractive. It's actually criminal.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Wrong. Terms were based on the Twitter SEC filings, which were way wrong at stating there was a 5% bot population when it appears to be 20% or more. No different than a corporation cooking the books to make stocks more attractive. It's actually criminal.

It's a good thing for Twitter that the SEC filings don't say that. Go back and read all the discussion of "monetizable daily active users."
Summary: Twitter reports a number called mDAU which is intended to exclude bots. They claim 5% of that number is bots (with many disclaimers).