Elon & Twitter

[DrGriz]

It's not like all the controversy happened at the end of the year. If you think this is not the case, I invite you to revisit the early post history in this very thread dating back to April or any of the other active threads in which his political activity has been discussed.

He has been increasingly vocal about his problems with the Democratic Party as well as California and local Bay Area officials since 2020 yet Tesla's sales in CA keep rising and rising even faster than the EV market in CA. He started publicly criticizing Twitter's management on March 24th, announced intent for a takeover bid on April 11th, argued more and more in public, and completed the acquisition in October. He tweeted in May "In the past I voted Democrat, because they were (mostly) the kindness party. But they have become the party of division & hate, so I can no longer support them and will vote Republican. Now, watch their dirty tricks campaign against me unfold." Elon announced in June that he was leaning towards supporting Republican governor Desantis of Florida for President in 2024.

2022 data is therefore definitely relevant evidence for evaluating the effect of these controversies and shift to supporting Republicans.

Similar sales numbers observed here in the Seattle metro area, by the way. Approximately as blue as LA & SF metro areas.


Ok then, let me extend the same predictions to also apply to year over year comparisons for 2024, 2025, and 2026. Reminders are now set to recur every January.

Until then I'm gonna go back to not reading this thread again. See you all in nine months.

Although you are correct, that Musk has done weird stuff for a while and seemed to away with it, it got palpably worse toward the end of last year.

Not that the content history of this thread and it's length is any sort of measure, but when I looked back, the first quarter of it, the part not from the end of last year and forward, the discussion was whether or not the purchase would happen and whether it was wise. The bulk of antics, and the bulk (3/4) of the thread, was after that.

Again, I wouldn't use that as evidence of anything in the wide world, because we here don't represent that.

And as I said, mainly, I don't think your graphs reflect the sales period some are concerned about.

Most of the bad attention happened late last year, after he actually bought Twitter and started changing the management and content and posting the weird stuff in earnest. As for the rest, we'll see. It would hard to accurately measure sales that didn't occur and the cause. How would you measure that? All you know is if there is period over period growth, or not. There will always be interest rates and loss of tax incentives and supply chain issues to blame if Tesla underperforms. How would you tease out the Elon Effect? Some will point their fingers, others won't. On and on.

 

[InDaClub]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1639160385772347393

 

[JohnSnowNW]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1639160385772347393

Yeah, sure, my twitter feed is full of "news" from the individuals experiencing the event. Charlie Kirk, for instance, has been in the right place a the right time a lot, I guess.

Interact with people once, and you get inundated with their tweets.

Not sure how amplification of tweets, based on Twitter's algorithm, is supposed to be less biased...but alrighty.

 

[bkp_duke]

Although you are correct, that Musk has done weird stuff for a while and seemed to away with it, it got palpably worse toward the end of last year.

Not that the content history of this thread and it's length is any sort of measure, but when I looked back, the first quarter of it, the part not from the end of last year and forward, the discussion was whether or not the purchase would happen and whether it was wise. The bulk of antics, and the bulk (3/4) of the thread, was after that.

Again, I wouldn't use that as evidence of anything in the wide world, because we here don't represent that.

And as I said, mainly, I don't think your graphs reflect the sales period some are concerned about.

Most of the bad attention happened late last year, after he actually bought Twitter and started changing the management and content and posting the weird stuff in earnest. As for the rest, we'll see. It would hard to accurately measure sales that didn't occur and the cause. How would you measure that? All you know is if there is period over period growth, or not. There will always be interest rates and loss of tax incentives and supply chain issues to blame if Tesla underperforms. How would you tease out the Elon Effect? Some will point their fingers, others won't. On and on.

The factual timeline is that the Twitter purchase and the "bad news" people mention here happened in Q3 2022. Despite that, Q4 2022 was record deliveries, in all markets of the world for Tesla. Q1 2023, historically a down quarter for both the auto industry and Tesla, is tracking out to be even better than Q4 2022 by the available data we have so far (registrations in China and the EU). We will know the specifics in about 8 days.

 

[sunwarriors]

It's not like all the controversy happened at the end of the year. If you think this is not the case, I invite you to revisit the early post history in this very thread dating back to April or any of the other active threads in which his political activity has been discussed.

He has been increasingly vocal about his problems with the Democratic Party as well as California and local Bay Area officials since 2020 yet Tesla's sales in CA keep rising and rising even faster than the EV market in CA. He started publicly criticizing Twitter's management on March 24th, announced intent for a takeover bid on April 11th, argued more and more in public, and completed the acquisition in October. He tweeted in May "In the past I voted Democrat, because they were (mostly) the kindness party. But they have become the party of division & hate, so I can no longer support them and will vote Republican. Now, watch their dirty tricks campaign against me unfold." Elon announced in June that he was leaning towards supporting Republican governor Desantis of Florida for President in 2024.

2022 data is therefore definitely relevant evidence for evaluating the effect of these controversies and shift to supporting Republicans.

Similar sales numbers observed here in the Seattle metro area, by the way. Approximately as blue as LA & SF metro areas.


Ok then, let me extend the same predictions to also apply to year over year comparisons for 2024, 2025, and 2026. Reminders are now set to recur every January.

Until then I'm gonna go back to not reading this thread again. See you all in nine months.

I don't think any of his previous viewpoints or opinion rubbed folks the wrong way till post Twitter acquisition. I didn't care personally since we're all biased in our views and Elon can be Elon with his own personal views too. I know folks who left CA simply due to the political climate so he's not the only/first one. I don't agree with tons of laws in CA neither. I'm only here because of his acquisition of Twitter and all the massive insulting layoffs shown a spotlight to how big of a jerk he is to even more people.

Yes, do come back in 2024/2025/2026 with your numbers. The 2022 stuff is irrelevant I think, but as I keep saying in this thread, we'll see how it all plays out in a year+ and no 700+ pages of back and forth is changing anyone's mind. This is a Twitter thread also, not a Tesla/investment thread, but with more EV options, Elon's antics, I think it will have some impact. I'm sure you'll update us all as the year goes on how much, if any, it's having an impact. If it doesn't support your case, I'm sure all the Elon worshippers will put some reason/excuse the numbers are bad too.

The massive price cuts probably goosed the numbers too since Tesla MYs weren't selling at $68k+, but I think there is far more supply in Europe from other posts I see now vs. the US. Outside of MY, the inventory is looking very high for S/X especially. They've cut the prices on those 2 models another 10k+?


Bottom line for a lot of people is they simply don't care if someone is an evil person, but will still support them if it benefits their own situation/cause. That's just human selfishness or self interest. Everything else be damned usually.

I think the bigger thing is simply more EV options. As I said before, when the only thing you can buy was a Tesla or a Bolt/Leaf, that's not much choice for consumers. The Korean brands, BMW, Porsche, if GM can ever get off the ground will allow folks who want an EV, but don't like Elon a decent option outside of the supercharging network. Previously, there were 0 options.

 

[DrGriz]

The factual timeline is that the Twitter purchase and the "bad news" people mention here happened in Q3 2022. Despite that, Q4 2022 was record deliveries, in all markets of the world for Tesla. Q1 2023, historically a down quarter for both the auto industry and Tesla, is tracking out to be even better than Q4 2022 by the available data we have so far (registrations in China and the EU). We will know the specifics in about 8 days.

And, at the end of the year, there was excess inventory. So production outstripped demand. And it happened after what? I waited 6 months for my car, others a year. Suddenly, that was no longer a thing. Wait time for my car now would be 1-3 months.

I don't have an accurate way to tease out the "Elon Twitter Effect" from the other factors (as you pointed out) if there is one. If you do, I'd honestly like to know.

What @Gigapress posted was positive news, but not evidence of Elon's Twitter antics having effect or not, because we cannot measure sales that didn't occur. It's like proving a negative, if you know what I mean.

I hope Tesla continues to grow and flourish. I think the cars are amazing and I would personally buy another over any other available EV.

 

[tivoboy]

I posted this in the main investor thread but here it is for your enjoyment as well.

I'm sure there will be lots of rational responses to this
/s

There’s almost no major metro in the top 20 in the USA that isn’t D-dominated.. one might find some closer to parity (one would have to lump in some I to get there though) in a couple major in TX or AZ, but other than that every metro is D dominated.

Outside of the two very close in major metros in CA, San Francisco just around the bay, and LA county mostly around the city proper, pretty much most of CA is actually RED. I doubt they are buying too many EV/BEV though until possibly a larger F-150 ramp occurs and probably at lower prices. Even then, charging infrastructure outside those two majors would have to be much better.

 

[bkp_duke]

And, at the end of the year, there was excess inventory. So production outstripped demand. And it happened after what? I waited 6 months for my car, others a year. Suddenly, that was no longer a thing. Wait time for my car now would be 1-3 months.

I don't have an accurate way to tease out the "Elon Twitter Effect" from the other factors (as you pointed out) if there is one. If you do, I'd honestly like to know.

What @Gigapress posted was positive news, but not evidence of Elon's Twitter antics having effect or not, because we cannot measure sales that didn't occur. It's like proving a negative, if you know what I mean.

I hope Tesla continues to grow and flourish. I think the cars are amazing and I would personally buy another over any other available EV.

I concur that there are anecdotal accounts (mostly in threads like this one) that Elon turned off some people. I don't dispute that. And inventory did grow at the end of the year (but all auto inventory grew - that was not specific to Tesla). But, the macro effects of the FED pushing us into a full blown recession with auto loan rates rising by 3-4X what they were previously was a far larger effect than Elon's actions and the reason inventory grew more (as @Gigapress demonstrated with his very in-depth post that showed the rates of auto purchases in the two most left-leaning cities in CA had not dropped relative to where they were previously). This was no unique to Tesla, it happened with all autos. Plus, with the IRA tax credit going into effect, you had a lot of people putting their purchase on hold for a few weeks/months if they thought they would qualify for that.

I get that to some people, Elon's political leanings are near and dear to their heart, it must hurt some people when a person they think aligns with them politically, essentially someone that is their "hero" because he has done so much good for mankind, goes a direction that they in their core beliefs hate. But despite that the demand for Tesla cars is sufficient enough that it did not have a "material effect" on uptake rates, even in the most left-leaning of cities.

 

[Gigapress]

EinSV responded to my OP in the main investor thread and provided a link to a report from Silicon Valley Auto Dealers Association with data on Santa Clara County for Jan and Feb 2023 derived from Experian registrations.

Still no indication of demand issues. Tesla sales up 15% YoY and overall market share for Jan + Feb rose from 25.4% to 26.6%. Next-best was Toyota in a distant second place at 14.4%. Yes we can’t tease out how much Elon may be affecting demand with only this data, but the primary limiting factor here is obviously the fact that Fremont is already cranking out as many cars as possible and Austin isn’t shipping much of its volume to the West Coast as of now. There aren’t enough Tesla vehicles being made to sell more without just taking supply from other regions in basically a zero-sum game allocation situation.

People can buy other EVs in the SF Bay Area and certainly tend to have the affluence to do it yet they’re still choosing Teslas at a rate of 4x or 5x more often than all other EV models put together depending on which county you look at. Bear in mind, these other EV models are being pushed mostly as compliance cars by companies desperate to meet California ZEV regulatory requirements at essentially any cost necessary in order to legally be allowed to sell their ICEVs, so it’d be effectively impossible for Tesla to achieve much higher EV market share in the Bay Area than the ~80% share they currently command.

https://www.svautodealers.com/pdf/SiliconValley_Feb23_Data.pdf

There’s almost no major metro in the top 20 in the USA that isn’t D-dominated.. one might find some closer to parity (one would have to lump in some I to get there though) in a couple major in TX or AZ, but other than that every metro is D dominated.

Outside of the two very close in major metros in CA, San Francisco just around the bay, and LA county mostly around the city proper, pretty much most of CA is actually RED. I doubt they are buying too many EV/BEV though until possibly a larger F-150 ramp occurs and probably at lower prices. Even then, charging infrastructure outside those two majors would have to be much better.

Yes, but the San Francisco area is especially D-dominated even compared to other big American cities. The only major metro area that’s even more liberal is Washington DC, and maybe Seattle is on par with SF. Between this and the fact that the Bay Area is:

• At the epicenter of Tesla/Twitter/Musk controversy
• Extremely affluent and the cost of cars is less as a percentage of income than most comparable metro areas
• The place in the USA with the most availability and market penetration of EVs and available options

I am therefore inclined to believe the Bay Area is the one most worth watching for signs of Tesla popularity waning, with Seattle close behind. Luckily, there are no such signs and the econometric data actually appears to be trending towards near-monopoly for Tesla, especially after accounting for the fact that no competitors have EV businesses that are profitable and thus scalable over the long term and the fact that Tesla has achieved 20%+ overall market share with mostly just 3&Y sales which don’t fit the preferences or budget of all consumers.

 

[JRP3]

The simple fact is that a non zero number of existing and potential future customers have been turned off to the Tesla brand because of Elon's antics, needlessly so. This includes some long standing members of this forum who were also passionate ambassadors for the brand. Tesla has long had much more demand than production so it hasn't clearly shown up in sales and may never do so, (though the record inventory levels we've seen in recent months may reflect some of that). Even if those customers are replaced by those who approve of Elon's actions that doesn't make it a win, customers should be acquired without losing others. A one for one exchange means zero growth.

 

[bkp_duke]

The simple fact is that a non zero number of existing and potential future customers have been turned off to the Tesla brand because of Elon's antics, needlessly so. This includes some long standing members of this forum who were also passionate ambassadors for the brand. Tesla has long had much more demand than production so it hasn't clearly shown up in sales and may never do so, (though the record inventory levels we've seen in recent months may reflect some of that). Even if those customers are replaced by those who approve of Elon's actions that doesn't make it a win, customers should be acquired without losing others. A one for one exchange means zero growth.

ANOTHER simple fact is that the number of people turned off by Elon is essentially a rounding error.

It was made public knowledge in late Jan, on the quarterly conference call, that Tesla orders were outstripping production capacity by a 2:1 ratio.

 

[JRP3]

ANOTHER simple fact is that the number of people turned off by Elon is essentially a rounding error.

It was made public knowledge in late Jan, on the quarterly conference call, that Tesla orders were outstripping production capacity by a 2:1 ratio.

That is both true and irrelevant to my point.

 

[STS-134]

The simple fact is that a non zero number of existing and potential future customers have been turned off to the Tesla brand because of Elon's antics, needlessly so. This includes some long standing members of this forum who were also passionate ambassadors for the brand. Tesla has long had much more demand than production so it hasn't clearly shown up in sales and may never do so, (though the record inventory levels we've seen in recent months may reflect some of that). Even if those customers are replaced by those who approve of Elon's actions that doesn't make it a win, customers should be acquired without losing others. A one for one exchange means zero growth.

ANOTHER simple fact is that the number of people turned off by Elon is essentially a rounding error.

It was made public knowledge in late Jan, on the quarterly conference call, that Tesla orders were outstripping production capacity by a 2:1 ratio.

That really doesn't mean anything. The fact is, we're never going to know how many customers would have purchased a Tesla if Elon had shut up on Twitter. In order to figure it out, you'd have to run the experiment twice, once where Elon did shut up, and another time where Elon did exactly what he has done. If parallel universes exist, this has definitely happened in one of them, but it's impossible to know what is going on in that universe because we're stuck in this one.

Does orders outstripping production capacity mean anything? Nope. Because in the other universe, it's possible that Tesla got the same number of orders, but never had to lower prices, or didn't have to lower them as much, because that's the other variable here: the prices they charge. And while you might be able to make a fairly good estimate of what would have been purchased in a stagnant or slow growth industry like HVAC, it's exceedingly difficult to judge what would have happened in a fast growth industry like EVs. The contribution from growth of the industry can easily overwhelm even a 30% decline in sales due to the antics of a CEO.

What I can say is this: if parallel universes exist where different outcomes of events play out, there's probably another universe where I met with a group of my friends for dinner in January 2023, and instead of parking my Tesla at the far end of the lot and not talking about it at all, I told them what I was driving and all of the cool features it has.

 

[bkp_duke]

That really doesn't mean anything. The fact is, we're never going to know how many customers would have purchased a Tesla if Elon had shut up on Twitter. In order to figure it out, you'd have to run the experiment twice, once where Elon did shut up, and another time where Elon did exactly what he has done. If parallel universes exist, this has definitely happened in one of them, but it's impossible to know what is going on in that universe because we're stuck in this one.

Does orders outstripping production capacity mean anything? Nope. Because in the other universe, it's possible that Tesla got the same number of orders, but never had to lower prices, or didn't have to lower them as much, because that's the other variable here: the prices they charge. And while you might be able to make a fairly good estimate of what would have been purchased in a stagnant or slow growth industry like HVAC, it's exceedingly difficult to judge what would have happened in a fast growth industry like EVs. The contribution from growth of the industry can easily overwhelm even a 30% decline in sales due to the antics of a CEO.

Macro effects dictated that Tesla was always going to lower prices. And the fun fact is that prices are still a tad above what they were 18 months ago.


It's a nothing-burger argument - ALL that matters is that Tesla continues to sell every car they make and ramp as quick as they can. Nothing Elon has done appears to have pissed off enough people, even blue people based upon the data @Gigapress showed, to impact that in any SIGNIFICANT manner.

Everyone here is crying over a drop of spilled milk in and ocean of milk.

 

[STS-134]

Macro effects dictated that Tesla was always going to lower prices. And the fun fact is that prices are still a tad above what they were 18 months ago.


It's a nothing-burger argument - ALL that matters is that Tesla continues to sell every car they make and ramp as quick as they can. Nothing Elon has done appears to have pissed off enough people, even blue people based upon the data @Gigapress showed, to impact that in any SIGNIFICANT manner.

Everyone here is crying over a drop of spilled milk in and ocean of milk.

Completely missed the point.

 

[bkp_duke]

Completely missed the point.

No, I got the point. I just believe . . . it's a pointless argument. As you yourself said, you can never know. And what I was pointing out was what gigapress showed - RATES of uptake even in VERY BLUE cities has not materially changed.

 

[STS-134]

No, I got the point. I just believe . . . it's a pointless argument. As you yourself said, you can never know.

That part is unknowable.

And what I was pointing out was what gigapress showed - RATES of uptake even in VERY BLUE cities has not materially changed.

And that part is missing the point entirely.

 

[tivoboy]

Yes, but the San Francisco area is especially D-dominated even compared to other big American cities. The only major metro area that’s even more liberal is Washington DC, and maybe Seattle is on par with SF. Between this and the fact that the Bay Area is:

I am therefore inclined to believe the Bay Area is the one most worth watching for signs of Tesla popularity waning, with Seattle close behind. Luckily, there are no such signs and the econometric data actually appears to be trending towards near-monopoly for Tesla, especially after accounting for the fact that no competitors have EV businesses that are profitable and thus scalable over the long term and the fact that Tesla has achieved 20%+ overall market share with mostly just 3&Y sales which don’t fit the preferences or budget of all consumers.

I think Boston and New York could give Washington or Seattle a run for the money as far as D focused.

i will say, certainly bay area, POSSIBLY DC would have the highest concentration of Twitter users/affiliated parties, so they might have greater input into their opinion about Twitter, Musk, Tesla interest right or wrong.

Someone in the other thread (I don’t post there) posted Twitter usage by COUNTRY, and I found it interesting that there wasn‘t a single EU/Island country in the top 10. Now, if taken as a WHOLE EU (~440M) I wonder if some combination of EU/Island countries would then be in the top 10 somewhere, or if they just are NOT users.

After China, overall being the 2nd highest growth market for BEV, it’s possible the EU limited Twitter exposure (and overall relative lack of interest in DRAMA) might diffuse any negative influence or perception around buying decisions.

 

[bkp_duke]

That part is unknowable.

And that part is missing the point entirely.

Your argument was about some "parallel universe" where this didn't happen. My point is that is a POINTLESS argument. You can't sell more cars than you make, period. And Tesla is building cars full tilt.

The demographic makeup of Tesla buyers has NOT materially changed, per the info provided by gigapress. If your argument did hold any weight, that makeup would be expected to change (i.e. fewer liberal buyers). By all objective measurements of any quality, that hasn't changed, and is strong evidence that the "theoretical" argument you are making has little to no weight.

 

[JRP3]

If your argument did hold any weight, that makeup would be expected to change (i.e. fewer liberal buyers). By all objective measurements of any quality, that hasn't changed, and is strong evidence that the "theoretical" argument you are making has little to no weight.

The valid counter to that is it's too early to tell.