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Elon & Twitter

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Given it seems twitter was "worth" a lot less than 39 billion, why would they take 5 to turn down 44?
5B cash TODAY (back in Q3/q4 2022 would have been worth a lot to Twitter at the time AND they would have probably dropped to ~$22-25$ a share (and probably participated in the run up from Q4/22-Q2/23... 5B FREE cash, about three years worth of net NEED spend (above cashflow and other inflows) I doubt that twitter would have actually seen the same OFF MARKET fall that they have had since the EM purchase. And, that current HALF number is only a reported number, not a metricized number, but a reported one - most likely to reset or set options and equity values of current and future employees and more importantly, new investors which they are going to need. So yeah, had I been on the twitter board at the time, I would have taken 5B cash (5x, the walk away number, but they probably could have pushed for more even since the disastrous deal the EM made allowed for it) and then moved to make operational adjustments - not to the extent of the current dumpster file, but some for sure. Nobody will ever know.. but it's going to be an HBR case for certain!
 
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He was legally obligated by that point to pay up at $44b. lawsuit would have been easy for the board to win.
Yes, per the contract he would / could have been obligated to buy the company for the agreed upon price with relatively few restrictions or outs, BUT that doesn’t mean he couldn’t have offered 5X the deal break fee and the Twitter board might have taken it… even now, TEN TIMES the fee would have been better money spent and the board would have had to put any and all of those offers to the shareholders most likely and frankly, I DO think that somewhere between 5B and 10B free money they would have taken it. This was going to be a s.s. Regardless, I think many would have preferred it.. and any TSLA HODL’ers would probably have closer to +50% of their prior high water marks vs. 30% of them.. I haven’t even done the math on gods TSLA shares and what they would be worth at this point In that case. In the end, it was pride and hubris and has become a major distraction.
 
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Yes, per the contract he would / could have been obligated to buy the company for the agreed upon price with relatively few restrictions or outs, BUT that doesn’t mean he couldn’t have offered 5X the deal break fee and the Twitter board might have taken it… even now, TEN TIMES the fee would have been better money spent and the board would have had to put any and all of those offers to the shareholders most likely and frankly, I DO think that somewhere between 5B and 10B free money they would have taken it. This was going to be a s.s. Regardless, I think many would have preferred it.. and any TSLA HODL’ers would probably have closer to +50% of their prior high water marks vs. 30% of them.. I haven’t even done the math on gods TSLA shares and what they would be worth at this point In that case. In the end, it was pride and hubris and has become a major distraction.


If we think back to Q3 2022, I don't think anyone assumed Elon would turn Twitter into the cluster **** that it's now. I don't think Elon would've want to pay $5 bil as you state and like others have mentioned, why take $5 bil when you can have the $44 bil and execs get their golden parachutes and not have to work anymore? Dorsey probably made out like a bandit and even richer, etc without having to ever do anymore work for Twitter.

It's easy to say $5 bil is cheap now all in hindsight, but in some people's minds, and especially the investors/banks who lined up all that debt financing, that $44 billion was worth it since a lot of that debt is owned by those supposed smart/rich investors.

That $20 bil valuation now could be undervalued to try to attract talent, take it into BK or/to force debt renegotiation, etc...and who knows what will happen in a year or 2 or 5 years, but it'll be hard to say Elon or anyone would've backed out simply by tossing Twitter even $10 billion during the purchase time since he'd probably be called an idiot for doing that back then as well.

If he wants, maybe Elon can dump it now for $20 bil and just cut his losses, but I can't see who would want it and I think all the changes he's implemented isn't helping it's valuation and it just looks like a total mess.

You're better off trying to join BlueSky as an employee if you have the skills since Twitter is already too richly valued with little financial upside AND, you need to work for Musk (which can fire you anytime even if you're trying to do your best for the company).
 
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5B cash TODAY (back in Q3/q4 2022 would have been worth a lot to Twitter at the time AND they would have probably dropped to ~$22-25$ a share (and probably participated in the run up from Q4/22-Q2/23... 5B FREE cash, about three years worth of net NEED spend (above cashflow and other inflows) I doubt that twitter would have actually seen the same OFF MARKET fall that they have had since the EM purchase. And, that current HALF number is only a reported number, not a metricized number, but a reported one - most likely to reset or set options and equity values of current and future employees and more importantly, new investors which they are going to need. So yeah, had I been on the twitter board at the time, I would have taken 5B cash (5x, the walk away number, but they probably could have pushed for more even since the disastrous deal the EM made allowed for it) and then moved to make operational adjustments - not to the extent of the current dumpster file, but some for sure. Nobody will ever know.. but it's going to be an HBR case for certain!
In context of when Elon filed the suit, I don't see how the math works out for $5 billion ever making sense for Twitter shareholders dropping the suit. Elon bought at $52.40 a share, $5 billion out of a $44 billion deal takes that down to $48 a share equivalent. As long as the shareholder bought below that price, it doesn't make sense to take $5 billion.

When Elon filed the suit to try to drop the deal, Twitter was only at $36 and it didn't climb up past $48 until it was in the last month and the sale was all but confirmed.

Basically taking the $44 billion means shareholders didn't have to gamble on if Twitter will get higher valuation in the future.
 
In context of when Elon filed the suit, I don't see how the math works out for $5 billion ever making sense for Twitter shareholders dropping the suit. Elon bought at $52.40 a share, $5 billion out of a $44 billion deal takes that down to $48 a share equivalent. As long as the shareholder bought below that price, it doesn't make sense to take $5 billion.

When Elon filed the suit to try to drop the deal, Twitter was only at $36 and it didn't climb up past $48 until it was in the last month and the sale was all but confirmed.

Basically taking the $44 billion means shareholders didn't have to gamble on if Twitter will get higher valuation in the future.
Although the board could have argued that it was better to get the money now than have to sue Elon, have him drag out the process in court, and settle for whatever the court determined (which may not be a full $54.20 per share). But yeah, I think it would have taken at least $5B to make the shareholders not sue the board, possibly more.
 
If we think back to Q3 2022, I don't think anyone assumed Elon would turn Twitter into the cluster **** that it's now.
I think by Q3 it was sort of obvious how it would go, considering the cluster**** the deal was from the beginning and Elon's increasingly unhinged Tweeting. It's not as if he started going downhill until after the deal was done.
 
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Democrats: "Elon Musk is right wing because he supports Covid conspiracy theory and doubts vaccines"

Meanwhile, also Democrats: 19% support for RFK Jr's presidential nomination bid.


It's increasingly clear now that *every* line of "reasoning" to paint Musk as a right wing figure has been falsified by reality, no wonder anti-Musk idiots are again hoping Twitter will fail somehow, even though I just got the above RFK Jr news from twitter, haha.
 
Democrats: "Elon Musk is right wing because he supports Covid conspiracy theory and doubts vaccines"

Meanwhile, also Democrats: 19% support for RFK Jr's presidential nomination bid.


It's increasingly clear now that *every* line of "reasoning" to paint Musk as a right wing figure has been falsified by reality, no wonder anti-Musk idiots are again hoping Twitter will fail somehow, even though I just got the above RFK Jr news from twitter, haha.
There are some loonies in the Dem party as well, I'm not sure why you think an anti vax Dem means Elon isn't right wing. RFK is basically a tool of the far right:
 
There are some loonies in the Dem party as well, I'm not sure why you think an anti vax Dem means Elon isn't right wing.
First of all, it's not just "an" anti vax Democrats, it's the meaningful support he got from Democrat voters that matters.

As for why this means Elon isn't right wing, that's basic logic: If you classify Elon as a right wing via let's say 5 traits he had, then we find all 5 traits exist in meaningful number of left wing, then it should be obvious that using these traits to classify people as right wing is wrong.
 
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