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Elon, Where is the FSD features you promised?

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The FSD option in that Tesla is pre-selling something that is a complete unknown. Aside from tweeted estimates there is no official time table from Tesla, or exactly what it will do. I don't see much recourse a buyer has since nothing was really promised in writing. It just says it's up to software validation, and regulatory
Sadly this is not the message you hear from Tesla salespeople.

The regular layperson idea of Tesla technology today is "oh! it's a car that drives itself!" (confirmed by FedEx delivery person that brought me my plates and asked me how is my self-driving car doing.)
Somewhat more educated public has this a bit different image of "Tesla has the most advanced 'autopilot' on the market that still needs some intervention from people, but they also demonstrated FSD last year and there's a video of it so it should not be too far away." (I fell into this camp at purchase time reinforced by salesman telling me that FSD is much sooner than I imagine and I might send my car to the service center for annual inspection all by itself (3 hours drive so hardly something I want to do myself)).

There was official eap timetable and that did not help much, btw (this is what the class action lawsuit is about). Needless to say salespeople did not acknowledge that one either. I.e. they demonstrated AP1 and said that AP2 is so much better, but they don't have any AP2 demo cars so just marvel at AP1 for now (happened to me on two occasions).
 
Sadly this is not the message you hear from Tesla salespeople.

The regular layperson idea of Tesla technology today is "oh! it's a car that drives itself!" (confirmed by FedEx delivery person that brought me my plates and asked me how is my self-driving car doing.)
Somewhat more educated public has this a bit different image of "Tesla has the most advanced 'autopilot' on the market that still needs some intervention from people, but they also demonstrated FSD last year and there's a video of it so it should not be too far away." (I fell into this camp at purchase time reinforced by salesman telling me that FSD is much sooner than I imagine and I might send my car to the service center for annual inspection all by itself (3 hours drive so hardly something I want to do myself)).

There was official eap timetable and that did not help much, btw (this is what the class action lawsuit is about). Needless to say salespeople did not acknowledge that one either. I.e. they demonstrated AP1 and said that AP2 is so much better, but they don't have any AP2 demo cars so just marvel at AP1 for now (happened to me on two occasions).
Superb post
 
... The regular layperson idea of Tesla technology today is "oh! it's a car that drives itself!" (confirmed by FedEx delivery person that brought me my plates and asked me how is my self-driving car doing.)
Somewhat more educated public has this a bit different image of "Tesla has the most advanced 'autopilot' on the market that still needs some intervention from people, but they also demonstrated FSD last year and there's a video of it so it should not be too far away." ...

This is 100% true.
 
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Didn't we discuss this already?
List of Elon Musk Autopilot Predictions

On that specific quote, more analysis here:
MobilEye's approach


We discussed this but all you did were result to saying approximate means an extra year is added so you can give Tesla extra leeway.

If someone said, abc will be happen in about a decade, an extra decade should automatically be added and if its done within 2 decades then they are right and in no way late.

Obviously we know that isn't true. Neither is someone who says they will be at an event in appromiately 1 hour. If they show up 2 hours later we don't say they are on time, we yell at them for being late. whether its a social event or something more serious like a job.

But this quote has no approximation on it and even says LESS than two years and yet you still make several attempts of denying accountability.

Your response in that mobileye thread doesn't actually answer the question because all you did was dodge it.

YES OR NO did Elon say he will have complete autonomy in less than 10 months. If yes then we should hold him accountable.

Its either a yes or no and we are not even talking about levels because first of all level 2, level 3,level 4 or level 5 have nothing to do with safety levels even though you keep bringing up safety levels, its misguided.

However Tesla and Elon has specifically mentioned Level 5 for AP2.
 
But, nevertheless that puts his estimate at FSD being available in 2018 with regulatory approval around 2019.

Pretty laughable and hard to defend


Yet there are people in this very thread that will argue that isn't true so when the time comes and Elon misses yet another deadline, they have some Plausible deniability in saying they never agreed to holding Elon to that date.

Yes its pretty laughable. for example look back at the initial 3-6 months thread there were ppl in that thread and have showed up in this one who refused to hold elon accountable for the timeline just incase he misses.

These ppl only care about Tesla and Elon's positive outlook, its hilarious
 
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Think about it. There are still people who still think Tesla never promised AP1 parity in December and EAP features right after.
Even with all the pictures that @AnxietyRanger have graciously provided.

Even though we have record AUDIO from the Lawd Elon himself.

The great one saying:

5 mins 12 secs

(October 19, 2016)

"The cars with hardware 2..with the full autonomy suite will actually have fewer features than hardware 1.
We expect to reach feature parity following field validation of hardware 2 probably in December, which is 2 or 3 months from now.
Every 2-3 months thereafter is when we expect to release significant improvement in autonomous capability."


Its been 3 (every 2-3 months thereafter) no EAP and no feature parity.
 
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I'm trying to decide what I hate more.

The FSD option in that Tesla is pre-selling something that is a complete unknown. Aside from tweeted estimates there is no official time table from Tesla, or exactly what it will do. I don't see much recourse a buyer has since nothing was really promised in writing. It just says it's up to software validation, and regulatory.

Or the fact that it brought all these people out of the woodwork that for whatever reason fell for it. I don't mind the ones that don't complain because they seem to understand that they paid for the idea/hope for it. What I do strongly dislike is those who buy into something on blind faith. Who are gullible enough to believe a few tweets from someone who by purpose exaggerates. We know Elon strongly believes in leaping with the idea that he very well might fall way short.

It's hard for me not to see parallels between Tesla/Elon and President Trump.

It's as if in 2016 I slipped into some weird reality where everything is upside down. Where my fellow member of society have absolutely no critical thinking skills, and are persuaded by late-night tweets.

The best thing of this entire thread was the death by stubbornness joke. I'm sure I'll eventually die of stubbornness in not accepting this new Zombie filled reality.

Amazing, blame those who were duped by Tesla rather than the organization that is doing the duping.
 
Sadly this is not the message you hear from Tesla salespeople.

The regular layperson idea of Tesla technology today is "oh! it's a car that drives itself!" (confirmed by FedEx delivery person that brought me my plates and asked me how is my self-driving car doing.)
Somewhat more educated public has this a bit different image of "Tesla has the most advanced 'autopilot' on the market that still needs some intervention from people, but they also demonstrated FSD last year and there's a video of it so it should not be too far away." (I fell into this camp at purchase time reinforced by salesman telling me that FSD is much sooner than I imagine and I might send my car to the service center for annual inspection all by itself (3 hours drive so hardly something I want to do myself)).

There was official eap timetable and that did not help much, btw (this is what the class action lawsuit is about). Needless to say salespeople did not acknowledge that one either. I.e. they demonstrated AP1 and said that AP2 is so much better, but they don't have any AP2 demo cars so just marvel at AP1 for now (happened to me on two occasions).

This. Tesla PURPOSEFULLY lied to me about the status, scope, and capabilities of autopilot development and FAILED TO DISCLOSE that they had not even begun autopilot code when they sold me my car October 2016. They showed me AP1 and the FSD video and told me AP2 would be far, far superior, capable of FSD in fact, due to the 8 vs. 1 camera.

How the **** was I supposed to know they are a lying cheating organization?
 
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We discussed this but all you did were result to saying approximate means an extra year is added so you can give Tesla extra leeway.

If someone said, abc will be happen in about a decade, an extra decade should automatically be added and if its done within 2 decades then they are right and in no way late.

Obviously we know that isn't true. Neither is someone who says they will be at an event in appromiately 1 hour. If they show up 2 hours later we don't say they are on time, we yell at them for being late. whether its a social event or something more serious like a job.

But this quote has no approximation on it and even says LESS than two years and yet you still make several attempts of denying accountability.

Your response in that mobileye thread doesn't actually answer the question because all you did was dodge it.

YES OR NO did Elon say he will have complete autonomy in less than 10 months. If yes then we should hold him accountable.

Its either a yes or no and we are not even talking about levels because first of all level 2, level 3,level 4 or level 5 have nothing to do with safety levels even though you keep bringing up safety levels, its misguided.

However Tesla and Elon has specifically mentioned Level 5 for AP2.
Elon has made various predictions where the exact time (if you choose to interpret it that way) predicted ranges from December 2017 to April 2019. I characterized that as 2018/2019. The quote in the recode event was the only time when he didn't say "approximately" or "about" (but he does say "I think" and "basically").

In his earliest predictions in 2015, he used "approximately three years" (exactly June 2018) and later shifted to "approximately two years" (exactly December 2017). By your metric of taking the time scale by months, he shifted his prediction backward by 6 months. I personally think a more reasonable interpretation is that both simply meant some time in 2018.

If you are unhappy about the granularity of me saying 2018/2019, we can say 2018H2/2019H1, which is a 1 year scale.

As for holding him accountable, that was just a remark at a Q/A about how far he personally thinks the development will take. Even if his prediction is wrong by a year or two, it's not consequential at all. Who really cares? And you yourself characterize him as updating his time frame to later anyways, so that prediction doesn't even apply anymore today. Updating off-the-cuff predictions as development goes along is reasonable in most people's books, but in your book it seems to be a crime worth crucifying him for.

What can be held accountable is what Tesla actually says on their product page and right now they have made zero promises as to a release schedule for FSD. That's what people should actually be paying attention to.
 
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There was official eap timetable and that did not help much, btw (this is what the class action lawsuit is about). Needless to say salespeople did not acknowledge that one either. I.e. they demonstrated AP1 and said that AP2 is so much better, but they don't have any AP2 demo cars so just marvel at AP1 for now (happened to me on two occasions).
So I'm just starting to get moderately miffed at progress. Certainly losing some confidence. But, this post is the crux of the complaint, and it's valid. I ordered in November, and I had two salespeople I talked to. One said something to the effect of "Well, you'll get AP2 which is much better than AP1 but we don't have any demos." The other one said something pretty much exactly the truth. (Even he didn't say August would come and go and feature parity wouldn't exist though)

The message was, and truly still is "Tesla’s Enhanced Autopilot software has begun rolling out and features will continue to be introduced as validation is completed, subject to regulatory approval." That's on their website right now. I have no reason to believe that validation is holding back release as much as actual implementation. Teleportation features are as likely held back by validation as much as autopilot features are. I could be totally wrong, but the lack of communication about wth is actually going on is really bad. I can't help but think there's a large cohort of people who bought FSD and basically think they're never going to see it implemented on their hardware. Just like the teleportation or hover car options. (Shh, those were insider deals the salesperson gave me special access to)
 
Humbly; I've got a few Tesla's and over 300k of Autopilot miles on the Fleet. Most of them run AP1 and the latest addition runs AP2. As noted across many threads in the forum there is quite a large gap between their capabilities and trust you can place in them.
My personal view is that the pre-facelift AP1 is actually the stronger of all at the current versions.
Facelift AP1 feels much more stable today than AP2, but there is still some strange goings on, acceleration pauses and line hugging. The Camera/Radar primary sensor switch around made a huge difference to the capabilities of the Facelifted AP1. It too - was much more nervous than pre-facelift AP1 beforehand.

On the subject of AP2 and the Tesla communications, I concur with the feelings that Tesla as a entirety have sold a dream that they're struggling to deliver upon. This isn't just Elon - he's far from dumb and we don't know what information or data he's working with, past, present or future. My personal view from what I've seen in documentaries and interviews is that he's a good leader. He's got a good vision, passion and I think his Twitter activity/interactions with the rest of us should be respected. Not many CEO's will directly engage with their customer base. It must also be incredibly hard to maintain the perfect structure in an organisation that is growing (and must grow) at the rate of Tesla. Especially given that the Giants are now waking up - that must be quite pressurising.

That said - it's straight up not good enough to be in the place that AP2 owners are in. Tesla owe AP2 owners some form of humble pie.

In business I believe that problems don't cause pain. Rational humans that process information with logic and fact completely understand that when you try really hard to make something truly amazing, you'll hit stumbling blocks and backward steps along the way.
But... it's about how you deal with these problems that counts. If this was my business I'd take a couple of steps...

1) I'd offer optional refunds to those owners that purchased AP2 EAP and FSD. Whilst leaving AP available to them in its current form and up to AP1 parity.

2) For new orders I'd make it so that taking AP2 EAP and FSD later on, when it's actually available and usable wouldn't cost additional on top of specifying it at point of order.

If Tesla read these threads; I think it's important that they appreciate all the views, opinions and emotions in this thread are positive. We're all engaged on the journey... passionately loving what they do. That spills into disappointment quite easily if we feel we're potentially being mugged off. Mainly because we think Tesla is better than that.
 
For those of us with experience in managing large, complex, software-based systems, unfortunately, what we are seeing with the long-than-expected rollout of the AP2 software is not unusual for large software projects, especially when an organization is trying to aggressively roll out new features as quickly as possible.

It took a year before the AP1 hardware was activated and AP was operating in the AP1 cars - and we could see something similar with AP2, except that Tesla activated the AP2 hardware early - and allowed drivers to use early versions of the AP2 software that fall short of AP1.

Even with its flaws, AutoSteer on limited access highways with AP2 is still useful, though it still requires monitoring for when the software isn't prepared to handle a situation (like presence of multiple lane lines in areas with current or recent construction).
 
For those of us with experience in managing large, complex, software-based systems, unfortunately, what we are seeing with the long-than-expected rollout of the AP2 software is not unusual for large software projects,
That's why the English language has the word "hope" and phrases like "the best possible case, but not likely" and "yeah, we don't even have the code anywhere close, but need to hit Q4 #'s" and "because of the split with MobileEye, our HW2 cars will not have a complete system for AP until we can finish our development. This will take some time, but we will do our best and keep owners informed of our progress as they join us. In the meantime, if you would rather wait until the software is more stable, we will not raise prices for later addition of the software until we can demonstrate to owners that our system can indeed accomplish that which we claim. Thank you for supporting our mission."

All of which are more reasonable and honest than the bullshit they told us and put on my configuration page.
 
For those of us with experience in managing large, complex, software-based systems, unfortunately, what we are seeing with the long-than-expected rollout of the AP2 software is not unusual for large software projects, especially when an organization is trying to aggressively roll out new features as quickly as possible.

It took a year before the AP1 hardware was activated and AP was operating in the AP1 cars - and we could see something similar with AP2, except that Tesla activated the AP2 hardware early - and allowed drivers to use early versions of the AP2 software that fall short of AP1.

Even with its flaws, AutoSteer on limited access highways with AP2 is still useful, though it still requires monitoring for when the software isn't prepared to handle a situation (like presence of multiple lane lines in areas with current or recent construction).

No.
The point is what Elon chose to say and Tesla chose to sell.

If you have a software development background you should understand that self drive is not a typical large software project. Almost no commercial projects has the core issue the viability of conventional programming to solve the core problems.

Musk claims "the problem is solved", yet Summon doesn't even meet the original spec.
 
That's why the English language has the word "hope" and phrases like "the best possible case, but not likely" and "yeah, we don't even have the code anywhere close, but need to hit Q4 #'s" and "because of the split with MobileEye, our HW2 cars will not have a complete system for AP until we can finish our development. This will take some time, but we will do our best and keep owners informed of our progress as they join us. In the meantime, if you would rather wait until the software is more stable, we will not raise prices for later addition of the software until we can demonstrate to owners that our system can indeed accomplish that which we claim. Thank you for supporting our mission."

All of which are more reasonable and honest than the bullshit they told us and put on my configuration page.

But you can sell way more cars if instead you say EAP/FSD is expected to COMPLETE final validation December 2016, even if you haven't started writing a single line of code yet.
 
Humbly; I've got a few Tesla's and over 300k of Autopilot miles on the Fleet. Most of them run AP1 and the latest addition runs AP2. As noted across many threads in the forum there is quite a large gap between their capabilities and trust you can place in them.
My personal view is that the pre-facelift AP1 is actually the stronger of all at the current versions.
Facelift AP1 feels much more stable today than AP2, but there is still some strange goings on, acceleration pauses and line hugging. The Camera/Radar primary sensor switch around made a huge difference to the capabilities of the Facelifted AP1. It too - was much more nervous than pre-facelift AP1 beforehand.

On the subject of AP2 and the Tesla communications, I concur with the feelings that Tesla as a entirety have sold a dream that they're struggling to deliver upon. This isn't just Elon - he's far from dumb and we don't know what information or data he's working with, past, present or future. My personal view from what I've seen in documentaries and interviews is that he's a good leader. He's got a good vision, passion and I think his Twitter activity/interactions with the rest of us should be respected. Not many CEO's will directly engage with their customer base. It must also be incredibly hard to maintain the perfect structure in an organisation that is growing (and must grow) at the rate of Tesla. Especially given that the Giants are now waking up - that must be quite pressurising.

That said - it's straight up not good enough to be in the place that AP2 owners are in. Tesla owe AP2 owners some form of humble pie.

In business I believe that problems don't cause pain. Rational humans that process information with logic and fact completely understand that when you try really hard to make something truly amazing, you'll hit stumbling blocks and backward steps along the way.
But... it's about how you deal with these problems that counts. If this was my business I'd take a couple of steps...

1) I'd offer optional refunds to those owners that purchased AP2 EAP and FSD. Whilst leaving AP available to them in its current form and up to AP1 parity.

2) For new orders I'd make it so that taking AP2 EAP and FSD later on, when it's actually available and usable wouldn't cost additional on top of specifying it at point of order.

If Tesla read these threads; I think it's important that they appreciate all the views, opinions and emotions in this thread are positive. We're all engaged on the journey... passionately loving what they do. That spills into disappointment quite easily if we feel we're potentially being mugged off. Mainly because we think Tesla is better than that.


However I have been a very vocal advocate that Tesla, meaning Elon, please stop talking publicly / tweeting, ANYTHING about AP2 HW2 FSD unless it is an update / announcement of something eminent or has happened. All of the expectations and broken (we will call them assurances not promises) from high have been broken and not happened way too many times. I do appreciate that Elon has been very quiet as of late. It is assuring that he is paying attention to the details and not a 10k foot view that looks so promising form a fly-by.
 
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And the MyTesla Page...
You seem to have forgotten that Tesla has made more than a few changes on their product page as well. :rolleyes:

Not to mention the changes to the MyTesla page...

Screen Shot 2017-06-16 at 11.40.07 AM.png
 
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Elon has made various predictions where the exact time (if you choose to interpret it that way) predicted ranges from December 2017 to April 2019. I characterized that as 2018/2019. The quote in the recode event was the only time when he didn't say "approximately" or "about" (but he does say "I think" and "basically").

In his earliest predictions in 2015, he used "approximately three years" (exactly June 2018) and later shifted to "approximately two years" (exactly December 2017). By your metric of taking the time scale by months, he shifted his prediction backward by 6 months. I personally think a more reasonable interpretation is that both simply meant some time in 2018.

If you are unhappy about the granularity of me saying 2018/2019, we can say 2018H2/2019H1, which is a 1 year scale.

As for holding him accountable, that was just a remark at a Q/A about how far he personally thinks the development will take. Even if his prediction is wrong by a year or two, it's not consequential at all. Who really cares? And you yourself characterize him as updating his time frame to later anyways, so that prediction doesn't even apply anymore today. Updating off-the-cuff predictions as development goes along is reasonable in most people's books, but in your book it seems to be a crime worth crucifying him for.

What can be held accountable is what Tesla actually says on their product page and right now they have made zero promises as to a release schedule for FSD. That's what people should actually be paying attention to.

Where did Elon say "approximately three years"?

Anyway

Me and alot of people obviously disagree with you on this. Why? Because it makes no sense. If we get a group of random and give them the quote and remove all context thereby removing any bias they would vehemently disagree with your 2018H2/2019H1.


You keep giving Tesla time they never allocated because your love for them have clouded your judgment.

But an objective conclusion is that according to statements right up to the release of AP2 all pointed to a release of December 2017 - June 2018.

It was only acouple months ago that he added yet another year to it.

But the promise of 2017/mid 2018 was sold to the media including AP2 everywhere. So alot of people bought Tesla and the FSD because when they googled, all they saw were articles saying that Tesla will have FSD ready by the latest mid-2018.


If you do the math below then you come up with level 5 by June 2018 period. You certainly dont come up with June 2019.

December 2015: "We're going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years."
January 2016: "In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and the car is in NY" -
June 2016: "I think we are less than two years away from complete autonomy, safer than humans, but regulations should take at least another year," Musk said.


He went from saying approximately two to less than two.
 
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