Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Elon's FSD Vaporware vs. 60 Minutes Driverless Trucks

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Tesla is a multi faceted company. They may make more money in the future selling batteries like powerwall, solar cells, etc... To define Tesla's business as selling cars is one dimensional in a multidimensional game.

Tesla’s own 10Q disagrees with you. Energy revenue is flat YoY and is a rounding error compared to car sales. Hell they barely do any leasing and leasing revenue is very close to their energy revenue. Revenue from automotive regulatory credits is double their energy revenue as well.

You can call them multifaceted all you want, but the numbers say very solidly that they’re a car company.
 
Tesla’s own 10Q disagrees with you. Energy revenue is flat YoY and is a rounding error compared to car sales. Hell they barely do any leasing and leasing revenue is very close to their energy revenue. Revenue from automotive regulatory credits is double their energy revenue as well.

You can call them multifaceted all you want, but the numbers say very solidly that they’re a car company.
For the disagree person, look at SEC Filing | Tesla, Inc., in particular pages 5 and 11.
 
They are more than just a player. In a given year, China's EV + PHEV sales are about triple that of what's sold in the US: Close To 1.18 Million Plug-In Electric Cars Were Sold In China In 2019.
Which is still a fraction of total cars sold in the world. Moreover, that’s sales, not production.

I wasn’t talking about being the biggest fish in a currently a small pond. In that case Tesla, and therefore the US is still arguably the leader. I’m referring to the fact China is set on exploiting an opening (for the first time in a century) for them to become the dominant producer of all cars once the transition to EV occurs.
 
They’re showing profit because they sell emissions credits, and those will dry up sooner rather than later.

To be fair, Tesla is in the process of doubling the number of factories they have, so I'd say compared to the legacy companies, they're still in growth phase, and profit isn't a priority.

Meanwhile their competitors who actually know how to turn a profit selling cars have been slowly moving into the EV space. Anyone who thinks the likes of Ford or VW who measure car sales in the multiple millions per year can’t find someone willing to partner with them on batteries is a dammed fool.

Technically, Ford loses money on their cars / sedans, and subsidizes them with their truck sales. But yeah, within a few years, I'd expect the battery supplies to be able to help other companies get to real volume production. I know GM and VW are building battery factories that should be up in 2024 or so. Until then, I expect batteries to be both the bottleneck and the price limiting factor for making profitable EVs.
 
Their business is selling cars (not “tech”, not energy, but cars) and services surrounding their cars, and it doesn’t make them money.

Most "tech" companies don't sell "tech". They develop technology to create products, and get their money selling those products. Tesla doesn't have to sell "tech" per se to be considered a "tech company".

Tesla is different from traditional automakers not just because it makes EVs, but because its business model raises fixed costs relative to variable costs. Tesla is highly vertically integrated, and puts a lot of fixed cost into building in-house capability rather than the variable cost of buying components. Tesla also puts a lot of money into the fixed cost of developing core technology and software rather than outsourcing that capability and paying for it per unit.

A business model that pushes higher fixed cost and lower variable cost is less profitable if you are a low-volume producer, but more-profitable if you are a high-volume producer. Tesla in the past was a low-volume producer with a high fixed cost business model. Not surprisingly, this mismatch meant Tesla's profitability was trash. Tesla in the future will be a high-volume producer. The same high fixed cost business model that made Tesla unprofitable as a small company will make it very profitable as a big company.

This concept (raising up-front cost in order to cut variable cost) is bread and butter to the Silicon Valley tech scene. Tech companies, especially software, typically lose money for their first decade and sometimes more before their profitablity explodes upward. Look at Facebook and Salesforce for recent examples. It's just wrong to claim that a high fixed cost business model that loses money with $10B of revenue is going to lose money with $100B of revenue.
 
Most "tech" companies don't sell "tech". They develop technology to create products, and get their money selling those products. Tesla doesn't have to sell "tech" per se to be considered a "tech company".

Tesla is different from traditional automakers not just because it makes EVs, but because its business model raises fixed costs relative to variable costs. Tesla is highly vertically integrated, and puts a lot of fixed cost into building in-house capability rather than the variable cost of buying components. Tesla also puts a lot of money into the fixed cost of developing core technology and software rather than outsourcing that capability and paying for it per unit.

A business model that pushes higher fixed cost and lower variable cost is less profitable if you are a low-volume producer, but more-profitable if you are a high-volume producer. Tesla in the past was a low-volume producer with a high fixed cost business model. Not surprisingly, this mismatch meant Tesla's profitability was trash. Tesla in the future will be a high-volume producer. The same high fixed cost business model that made Tesla unprofitable as a small company will make it very profitable as a big company.

This concept (raising up-front cost in order to cut variable cost) is bread and butter to the Silicon Valley tech scene. Tech companies, especially software, typically lose money for their first decade and sometimes more before their profitablity explodes upward. Look at Facebook and Salesforce for recent examples. It's just wrong to claim that a high fixed cost business model that loses money with $10B of revenue is going to lose money with $100B of revenue.
Even without Tesla having similarities between Tech that make it different than other auto manufacturers, it’s just silly to compare a company at Tesla’s stage to legacy auto. Tesla is a new company in a capital intensive industry- it’s in the process of spending its way through the barriers of entry as it scales.

There was a point in which maybe this could have broke them, but by now nearly everyone can see the path to profit. They have too good of product and enough momentum that they’ll have no problem getting past the current phase.

A lot of bad Wall Street analysts, and those that strive to be, get caught up in quarterly metrics, losing sight of the actual business cycle at play.

A bad analogy, which I’ll use anyways, is farming. A farmer invests a lot of capital getting the crops to grow, not showing a quarterly profit until after a harvest (forward markets not withstanding). If one ignored the business cycle, they’d be worried about the profitability.

Now think of the new farmer that acquired for a low price premium land, seed, and weather, but has nothing else. They’ll spend like crazy getting equipment and scale, showing a loss, even after the first few harvests. The 3rd generation farmer in marginal growing conditions likely has better profits. In another generation though, the new farmer will have more profits as long as they’re managed well.
 
Last edited:
I am just not seeing any really attractive EV products from Ford or VW yet.

I look for:
- Style
- Charging
- Long range
- OTA updates
- Autonomous Driving
I think the Ford pickup will be compelling. Since you live in the midwest, it will certainly beat the CT in the "style" category as you drive around town. Since they are using Rivian's drivetrain I expect long range and fast charging. Charging networks have come a long way and even if they follow Nissan's model of just putting charging at Ford dealerships, well, there are a metric crap ton of those and they are even out in the boonies.

The only wild card is Autonomous driving. AP 2.5 is my S is an absolute pile of garbage and will kill me one day. Every time I use it I get phantom braking, failed lane changes, wandering off the road when there's an on ramp, you name it. We are a good 10 years away from an L4 system.
 
Tesla is different from traditional automakers not just because it makes EVs, but because its business model raises fixed costs relative to variable costs. Tesla is highly vertically integrated, and puts a lot of fixed cost into building in-house capability rather than the variable cost of buying components.
You might be surprised to see how many components Tesla actually buys. Like most automakers, so much of what's in a vehicle vehicles isn't built by the automakers itself. An automaker trying to build everything ends up being too costly for them partly because they can't achieve the economies of scale needed or they don't have all the expertise or other resources (e.g. facilities for manufacturing, testing, etc.)

You've seen stuff like these, right?
https://s3-prod.autonews.com/s3fs-p...FF2554E6E7220A4C98C6%40AdobeOrg|TS=1598601785
https://s3-prod.autonews.com/s3fs-p...FF2554E6E7220A4C98C6%40AdobeOrg|TS=1598601816
https://www.autonews.com/assets/PDF/CA10076284.PDF
 
You might be surprised to see how many components Tesla actually buys. Like most automakers, so much of what's in a vehicle vehicles isn't built by the automakers itself. An automaker trying to build everything ends up being too costly for them partly because they can't achieve the economies of scale needed or they don't have all the expertise or other resources (e.g. facilities for manufacturing, testing, etc.)

Something Elon Musk has pointed out is that vertical integration makes your supply chain more complex, not less. Instead of buying one subassembly from a Tier 1 supplier, you're now buying all the parts for that subassembly from lots of what would have been Tier 2 suppliers.

Look at that picture of Model 3 suppliers. "front seat suspensions", "rear seat cushion wire frame assembly", "seat belt reminder system", "2nd row seat backs", and "seat heat" are all parts of the seats. Instead of buying seats, Tesla buys lots of seat parts.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: Soda Popinski
Maybe Waymo could roll these trucks with supplies to La and Texas to deliver supplies to the Hurricane damaged areas. This would be a good test to see if these trucks can navigate without cell service and no power.
I know that hurricanes/natural disasters are unusual events in a given city. Currently, I am unsure if Waymo or any autonomous driving company are able to navigate through all the city streets in Lake Charles, LA right now. I was there helping a friend of mine yesterday. Some of the streets I went through had trees or power light pole down. A few times I had to back up and seek alternate routes. Other times I just go in the "wrong direction". The traffic lights are all out. So at these traffic lights it essentially becomes a "stop all way" situation. I don't know if Waymo is able to recognize these situations or not. Not sure if it is a good idea for Waymo to go these disaster area right now.
 
  • Like
Reactions: cwerdna
Why won't the test these in frigid weather Take them up north Ice Road Truckers
ice-road-truckers-trailer-drag.jpg
 
  • Like
Reactions: cwerdna
Agree w/tmp131, but at least the driverless portions can be done on portions road that aren't damaged, flooded or blocked. You just need a human driver for the final portions.

As the 60 Minutes piece (Automated trucking, a technical milestone that could disrupt hundreds of thousands of jobs, hits the road), points out "the driverless truck can get coast-to-coast in two days, not four, stopping only to refuel—though a human still has to do that."

I agree; most interstate travel is very mundane. The interstate portion probably does not require humans. If Nikola One semi ever comes to fruition (the Market is pricing that it will at some point in the future), they can subcontract with an autonomous driving company such as Waymo or MobileEye and let it travel on the interstate for 1000 miles straight before "refueling" their hydrogen tank. There would be someone waiting at the refueling station to refuel it. 1000 miles at 65 mph will be 15.38 hours of straight driving. Similarly, Tesla Semi can do this; but the range would be 500 miles before it needs to be recharged. 500 miles at 65 mph will be about 7.69 hours of straight driving; someone can wait at the supercharger station to "recharge" it.
Like you said: these trucks can go to a certain location off the interstate/highway and humans can take over from there to drive into more complex city streets.