All companies have a mission, strategic plan and product roadmap, typically with a horizon of 5 years. We've all heard Elon articulate Tesla's mission is "To accelerate the world's transition to sustainable transport". He has further articulated the strategic plan (autonomous vehicles, gigafactory for cost reduction with scale) and a product roadmap to support that mission.
- Roadster as proof of EV concept
- Model S to build the brand to include a luxury family sedan
- Model X to extend the brand to include a family SUV/CUV
- Model 3 to further extend the brand to include a more affordable mass-market EV.
True visionaries manage long strategic horizons, and don't feel constrained by an arbitrary 5-year horizon (e.g., SpaceX and Mars). I stumbled across
this piece the other day, after the Model X founders' launch.
There was a question from an analyst at the most recent conference call before the Model X launch along these lines, which Elon characterized as "insightful", but he declined to comment further.
I find this speculation rather intriguing.
The original plan was for the Model X to have a lot more shared parts with the Model S. Feature creep turned it into much more than originally planned.
Elon Musk has said in interviews that his plan was always to be three phase:
1) Prove that pure EVs don't have to be boring and have good performance with the Roadster
2) Prove that EVs could be mass produced, though at a price point between the introductory Roadster and mainstream ICE.
3) Make a mass market EV for the masses.
He also went on to point out that we didn't start with the smart phone the cell providers give you with a two year contract. The first cell phones were huge bricks that had terrible battery life and were not that portable. As they evolved, they got cheaper, better battery life, and more useful. Similarly, the world of cars didn't start with anything close to the modern car, or even the Model T. The Model T is remembered because it was the first car affordable to the masses because it was produced at enough volume to be cheap.
Cars had been around for about 30 years when the Model T was introduced. They had evolved to some extent, but they were mostly limited production playthings for the rich. Evolution of the car took off with the introduction of the Model T and in the next 30 years cars changed dramatically. Probably faster than the first 30 years.
Musk realized somebody had to push the evolution of EVs forward. The traditional car makers weren't doing it. They would do compliance cars where they had to, but otherwise they were dragging their feet as much as possible. The traditional car makers essentially said a pure EV was impossible with current technology and ran down a list of reasons. The Roadster proved a few of those reasons wrong, the Model S proved all but two wrong, and the Model 3 will prove one of the last two wrong (mass production of an affordable 200 mile+ EV).
The last issue is about batteries, both the size of high capacity battery packs and the charge time. Batteries take longer to charge than refilling a gas tank, and the energy density in a battery is a tiny fraction of gasoline. BEVs are much more efficient than gas engines, but you can still get 400 miles of range with a 14 gallon gas tank on a car, but less than 300 miles with a 96 gallon battery pack on the Model S. Tesla plans to attack this problem with the Gigafactory. They will be able to lay out a battery pack that is about 30% denser than the current one fairly soon after opening the factory (probably about a year). This will be critical for the Model 3 launch. The Gigafactory is also designed to make Li-Ion batteries as cheap as possible, and they should be able to push the price down much faster than it has been falling.
Charging time will still be an issue. Higher power superchargers and better charging hardware on cars can lower the time a bit, but charging a battery pack is still going to take longer than an ICE. You can put 400 miles of range in an ICE in about 5 minutes. That's 48,000 mph, which is two orders of magnitude beyond what the best battery chargers can do.
When battery packs get to 400-500 mile range, which is coming, this will become less of an argument. It would be rare that someone is going to drive more than 500 miles in a day, and if they are, one stop of 40-60 minutes is not unreasonable for all but the most hardcore long range drivers.
But even when the Model 3 is introduced, battery range and charge times will be less convenient on a long trip than gasoline. However, for everyday driving around a town or city, BEVs are superior because you can charge at home overnight and never have to take time to go to a gas station. Plus the fuel is generally cheaper than gasoline.
Back to the original topic, Elon Musk is aware of every argument and drawback to EVs and he is systematically tearing each of them apart. He's gone much further than anyone else up to this point and it looks like he will make it. The toughest hurdle is the battery, but he even has a plan of attack on that front too.
